Liverpool FC: Is Jordan Henderson Really That Big a Risk?

As I read people’s opinions of Jordan Henderson signing for £16 million as either a great potential signing or an outright waste of money, I am shocked.

The new business orientated direction that the FSG have implemented is easy to understand: young, resale value and quality. The English transfer market is warped. An English player worth £5 million, can be sold for triple that.

I will look into the possible scenarios that we could see happen with Jordan Henderson career at Liverpool with case studies of other English players.

Scenario 1: 

Performance:

• Henderson becomes a star for Liverpool
• Henderson becomes a star for England
• Club enjoys success

Similar case to: Wayne Rooney Manchester Utd.

• Wayne is bought by Manchester Utd for £25 million.
• Rooney becomes Manchester Utd and England star.
• There is a transfer value of £50 million rumoured last season when Man City were interested.

Is Henderson a good purchase with scenario 1? Jordan Henderson is a shrewd buy. His value will at least double.

Scenario 2: 

Performance:

• Henderson becomes a star for Liverpool.
• Henderson can't break into the English squad.
• Club enjoys success.

Similar case to: Darren Bent Sunderland.

• Bent is a regular goal-scorer in the top division.
• Bent has struggled to break into the English squad regularly.
• Still commands a high fee when purchased by Aston Villa.
• Sunderland enjoy moderate success

Is Henderson a good purchase with scenario 2? Jordan Henderson is still a good buy. His value stays around the same maybe a bit more. Liverpool gets a good service from their new midfielder. If they need to sell, they will at least recoup the transfer fee.

Scenario 3: 

Performance: 

• Henderson becomes a star for Liverpool.
• Henderson doesn't break into England squad.
• Club doesn't enjoys success

Similar case to:  Ashley Young Aston Villa

• Ashley Young transfers from Watford.
• Star for Villa even though they don’t enjoy club success.
• Only recently broke into the England team.
• It is believed Young was bought for £15 million by Manchester Utd.
• Young’s transfer value doubled even though he had one year left on his contract.

Is Henderson a good purchase with scenario 3? Yes, if Henderson plays well his value will increase no matter the clubs on pitch success.

Scenario 4:

Performance:

• Henderson plays bad for Liverpool
• Henderson cant break England
• Club enjoys success

Similar case to: Micheal Carrick Manchester Utd.

• Massive fee
• Carrick goes missing for large parts of games.
• Manchester Utd still win trophies.
• Carrick doesn't have many England caps.

Is Henderson a good purchase with scenario 4? From a soccer point of view, yes but from a financial point of view no. Liverpool will not recuperate the £16 million spent on Jordan.

Scenario 5:

Performance:

• Henderson plays bad for Liverpool
• Henderson can’t break England
• Club doesn't enjoy success.

Similar case to:  Joe Cole to Liverpool

• Massive wages
• Injury plagued season
• Liverpool had poor start to season.

Is Henderson a good purchase with scenario 5? No and its worst case scenario.If this scenario happens then Henderson can be considered a flop. One bad scenario out of five shows that Henderson may not be the gamble that people believe he is.