
2011 NFL Predictions: Predicting Every Single Division Winner
Predicting NFL division winners is tough even in Week 10 of the season in question. So doing it months before preseason even starts seems foolish.
Still, with the lockout in full swing and so much of the football talk centering around very un-football like things (such as court dates, injunctions etc), I thought why not have a stab at it?
Why not make an early prediction at some division winners?
Looking over the results of past years, it's true that there will always be surprises every year. That there will be uncertainty is, frankly, one of the only certainties in the whole sport.
But I love actual football too much. And the endless debates over which team is better is, quite simply, more fun to talk about than covert meetings between the player's union and the owner's lawyers. I need to talk about real football.
And I don't think I'm alone in that statement. So with all of that in mind, let's take a look at some possible division winners (keep in mind Raiders/Lions/Bucs fans, this is only my theory, I don't own a DeLoraen and I don't really know what's going to happen.)
Plus even if your team doesn't win the division, you can still win a Super Bowl.
AFC East: New England Patriots
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Why not start with one of the big ones?
People (ahem Jets fans) probably won't like this, and to an extent I can understand why. They see their team as the up and comer, bound to usurp the old guard Patriots.
Yet I don't totally agree with that view. In fact, if you look at most positions, the Patriots are younger and less experienced. That New England was able to go 14-2 last year was remarkable.
And they should be better this year. People (myself included) admonished them for not addressing their pass-rush in the draft.
Yet they did improve their secondary and they still have free agency to make further additions. Plus, the picks they made at running back will be a serious asset. I think their running attack will be extremely good next year, and that could help cover any defensive struggles.
The Jets and Dolphins are talented, no doubt, but lack the consistent play of a quarterback like Tom Brady. I don't think over the regular season they can match New England (though as Pats fans ruefully remember, that didn't help in the playoffs).
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
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At first glance to someone not familiar with the division, this looks to be a no-brainer. It's the Steelers by a mile, right?
The trouble for Steel Town is that the Ravens have a very young, very good corps on offense and an extremely talented defense.
Yet the Steelers won the division last year without their starting quarterback for the first four games. And other than a divisional loss to their Baltimore rivals in week four, the other losses came against the Jets, Pats and Saints.
That's nothing to be ashamed of. They have an innate ability to win even when they don't play well. The Ravens haven't prove to me that they can do that yet on a consistent basis. That's the difference, for now.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
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The Colts had a serious problem last year running the ball. So what do they do?
Pick Anthony Constanzo, one of the best and most versatile in the draft. He should fit like a glove. They also took Benjamin Ijalana from Villanova who could be underrated at this point.
If the Colts can get even a decent running game, it should open up Peyton Manning's play-action passing attack.
Indianapolis fans should worry a little bit about the Houston Texans, though. They were horrible on defense last year, so they picked six defensive players (three defensive backs) in eight picks.
It wasn't just quantity, but quality. With J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, their front seven got a lot better. I just don't think they'll be in for the division though, since a switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense could have an adjustment period.
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
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This division is almost impossible to predict. There are so many factors it's unreal. Almost every team (sorry Denver fans) has a shot.
Yet the Chargers are like a sleeping giant. They were number one overall in total yards on defense and offense, yet they finished a disappointing 9-7.
And everyone knows that they "always start out a disaster." This year though, I think they might avoid the slow start.
And if they can, look out. (And Oakland/Kansas City fans, just know that this could easily break in your favor too, it's VERY close.)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles certainly had a super-human effort last year from Mike Vick, but people forget about how talented their offense is as a whole.
With Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, they have a balanced and talented receiver corps. And LeSean McCoy is highly underrated.
Defensively, this will be the decider for the Eagles though. Vick might be great, but he won't sneak up on anyone they way he did last year. Teams will be ready (or as ready as you can be for Mike Vick).
So the defense will have to be better. This division is always a very tough, physical battle. It will be close in my opinion, but the Eagles trump card wearing number seven will be the back-breaker for their competition.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
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No division winner prediction is easy to make. That's one reason why I love the NFL. No team has a stranglehold on their division, no matter how good they might look on paper.
Yet the Packers are about as close as it gets. They just won the Super Bowl, and they stand a fair chance of only being better this year.
With all of their injuries last season, their depth is improved at every position because guys not only stepped up, they won the friggin Super Bowl.
This could backfire though. Chemistry is a critical element. And that could be off-set by the constant position competition going on with everyone healthy.
But that's about as good an argument as you can make against Green Bay winning the division. And it's not a great argument.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
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The Saints were good last year, but the Falcons were great (at least in the regular season).
This year though, the Saints won't have a Super Bowl hangover to worry about. And they've made some great pickups. Shaun Rogers and Cameron Jordan will instantly upgrade their defensive line.
Stopping the run and rushing the passer will be an area the Saints will be improved at. That leaves very few weak spots.
And running the ball? (A place New Orleans shied away from last year, ranking 30th in rushing attempts.)
They drafted Mark Ingram Jr. to help out. You might have heard of him, he's pretty good.
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
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As a Giants fan, I can say from personal experience that Steve Spagnuolo is a very good football coach. He was one of the major reasons the Giants won Super Bowl XLII.
And now he's coaching an increasingly talented and evermore mature Rams team. Sam Bradford showed he has what it takes, he just needs more weapons and time to develop.
I think they can sneak the division though, if for no other reason than the fact that there isn't anyone else who has their act together. This continues to be one of the most "competitive" (aka bad) divisions in football.
The Rams at least have a direction so I'll take them. There are bright spots in the NFC West, make no mistake, but no one else has the right combination of talent, coaching and hunger that seems to currently be found in St. Louis.
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