The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale: Clay Guida/Anthony Pettis Head to Toe Breakdown

On June 4, 2011, the 13th season of the popular and long running Ultimate Fighting Championship reality TV show—The Ultimate Fighter—will officially come to a close with another live 'Ultimate Finale' event.

In the main event, Anthony Pettis is set to take on popular UFC lightweight journeyman Clay Guida.

All indications are that this will be an explosive bout between two entertaining Lightweights. But who has the advantage?  What are both fighters risking in this fight? What will they gain if they win?

Let's examine this match up from head to toe.

Clay Guida: 28-11, 5 (T)KO's, 15 Submissions

Clay 'The Carpenter' Guida has been competing in Mixed Martial Arts for over seven years.  He has been with the UFC since 2006.  In that time he has won multiple 'Fight of the Night' and 'Submission of the Night' awards.

Outside of the UFC, Guida is a former Strikeforce Lightweight Champion.

Guida’s total record in the UFC stands at 8-5, with five wins by stoppage.  To date, only two men—Kenny Florian and Roger Huerta— have ever stopped Clay Guida.  Both fighters were top ranked Lightweights at the time of their fights with Guida.

Both wins were by submission, meaning that no one in the UFC has ever (T)KO’d Clay Guida.  In fact, no one in Guida’s entire career has ever been able to crack Guida’s granite chin.

Anthony Pettis: 13-1, 5 (T)KO's, 6 Submissions

Anthony Pettis has been competing in professional Mixed Martial Arts since 2007.  He began his career by going a perfect 9-0 with eight stoppages.  Even more impressive is the fact that every single one of those eight stoppages occurred in the very first round of action.

After losing to Bart Palaszewski in his second fight in the WEC, Pettis rebounded with a three fight win streak that saw him stop opponents in the first, second, and third round of action.

This all led up to his fight against then WEC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson at the final event the WEC would ever run: WEC 53.  Pettis would go on to win a close fight by Unanimous Decision.

The fight was widely heralded as one of the best WEC fights of all time, with some fans going as far as to call it one of the best MMA fights of all time, period.

Anthony Pettis Fights for the Title Shot He's Earned

Pettis is putting his guaranteed shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship on the line in this bout. Back when the World Extreme Cagefighting promotion was folded into the UFC at the start of 2011, Pettis earned the right to compete in a 'Championship Unification' fight when he beat Ben Henderson at the final WEC event to become the final WEC Lightweight Champion.

Due to the ongoing rivalry between current UFC Lightweight Champion Frank Edgar and top contender Gray Maynard, Pettis would have been forced to sit on the sidelines for several months, possibly even a year, until Edgar and Maynard have their third and likely final fight.

Pettis chose not to sit on the sidelines and will instead make his UFC debut against Clay Guida.

Clay Guida Fights for the Title Shot He's Been Chasing Since 2006

Clay Guida is on the cusp of a possible shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship as well.  Guida is currently on a three fight win streak with three stoppages.

A perennial favorite fan favorite, Guida has been in the running for a shot at the championship several times before, due to his popularity, his fighting ability, and his very exciting fighting style.

In fact, if Guida does beat Pettis, that will put Guida closer than he’s ever been to a UFC Lightweight Championship opportunity.  In Guida’s entire history in the UFC, he’s never won four fights in a row.

Anthony Pettis Is a Dynamic, Fluid Striker

Anthony Pettis is a dynamic, fluid striker that has won five times by (T)KO.  Pettis also has two submissions wins on his record that were due to strikes.

Pettis’ biggest advantage in the striking is his complete disregard for the norm.  Pettis is not your average fighter, and because of that, he’s not your average striker.

In his post-fight interview at WEC 53, after nailing one of the most incredible strikes in the history of the sport (a wall-walk cage kick that nearly knocked his opponent out), Pettis’ simply said “I’ve got more of them coming”.

Clay Guida Is an Intelligent Brawler

One of the main reasons so many people like Clay Guida is because of his no holds barred, take no prisoners style of striking.

Guida is not just unafraid to do the dance of 'take two to give one', he thrives on it.

Clay Guida is a pure brawler, but he’s not a sloppy brawler.  Guida has grown more technical and dangerous with time, but he’s never stopped being an entertaining fighter that looks to engage frequently.

Anthony Pettis Continues to Improve His Ground Game

Anthony Pettis may have six wins by submission, but as previously stated, two of those were 'submission due to strikes'.  Another one was a submission due to an injury.

So, in reality, Pettis has tapped out three opponents in his brief career.

All three victories were by Triangle Choke, which has been and remains Pettis’ biggest weapon on the ground.

And in those three victories, Pettis displayed a growing knowledge for the ground game and a very slippery submission style.

Clay Guida Could Be Considered a Submission Specialist

Clay Guida becomes very interesting when you look at his submission record.

While loved for his brawling style, you would think Guida was a submission specialist if you had only his record to judge him on.

Guida has submitted 15 people in his career.  That’s three times more than the number of (T)KO’s he has, and almost double that of his wins by decision.

But here’s something that’s also interesting: Guida has a majority of his professional losses (seven of 11) by submission.

How Does Anthony Pettis Beat Clay Guida?

There are several ways Anthony Pettis can beat Clay Guida.  Admittedly, most of them involve going to a decision.  I’m a big fan of Anthony Pettis.  I think he has tremendous potential and I know he can beat Clay Guida.

He’s just not going to knock him out and he probably won’t submit him either.

I don’t know what Clay Guida’s chin is made of, but I do think Anthony Pettis won’t be able to crack it.  I’ll always believe that, given the right amount of time and the right kind of one hit knockout power, no chin is unbreakable.

Pettis just doesn’t have that kind of one-hit knockout power, not on a chin as formidable as Guida’s.

There’s a chance that Pettis can get the submission, but he’ll have to work very hard for it.  Guida has a very smothering top game and he loves to pepper people with Ground and Pound.

If Guida slips up, Pettis can use his long legs to get another Triangle Choke win.  Judging on how much this fight means to Clay Guida though, I just don’t think that will happen.

If Anthony Pettis wants to beat Clay Guida, his best bet is to do it by decision and he’ll have to avoid falling into Guida’s trap.  Guida wants Pettis to brawl with him, he wants to find himself bloody and bruised, that’s how he gets fired up.

Pettis needs to stay on the outside, countering at will and making Guida frustrated. So long as he does that, Pettis should win by unanimous decision.

How Does Clay Guida Beat Anthony Pettis?

In much the same way as I don’t think Anthony Pettis will stop Clay Guida, I don’t think Clay Guida will stop Anthony Pettis.

Anthony Pettis has never been knocked out, and he’s also never been submitted.  Guida’s hands are good and his submission skills are very good as well.

I just don’t see him being able to stop a focused and determined Anthony Pettis.

If Guida wants to beat Pettis, he’ll have to prey on Pettis’ penchant for doing crazy things just to please the fans and see if they work. Guida has a ton of experience, he just has to know how to use it.

If Pettis tries to get a little funky or flashy, he needs to either counter such attempts with short snapping punches or by taking Pettis down.

The main way I see Guida beating Anthony Pettis is if he cuts off the cage.  Guida should close the distance as much as he can.

He can decide whether he wants to brawl, clinch against the cage, or shoot for the takedown once he’s up close and personal.

If Clay Guida fights to smother Anthony Pettis, Clay Guida is going to beat Anthony Pettis.