2011 NFL Predictions: 17 Games Could Be Rookie Stepping out Parties Next Season
Each week of the upcoming NFL season (fingers-crossed) will provide an intriguing matchup for one of the 2011 draft picks. Some are based upon what will be transpiring on the field, while others deal with a rookie facing a team that chose another player.
In some cases, such as Week 1, we'll have them both.
These games will focus primarily on the first-round picks in the draft, as they do account for most of the top talent.
Blaine Gabbert isn't on the list, either, partly because I still don't consider him to be a top talent, and also because the odds of him playing are tied directly to the health of David Garrard.
September 11th: Cam Newton vs. Patrick Peterson/Panthers @ Cardinals
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This game could feature two of the top-five draft picks battling each other...although Jimmy Clausen could interrupt the party. While Patrick Peterson was likely the guy the Cardinals were targeting when draft day started, the Panthers had the opportunity to make him the first draft choice. This game will give them some early returns on their decision.
The Arizona secondary had major issues last season. Peterson will certainly help, but age and talent issues could create issues. Their defense may also be spending a lot of time on the field this season, as the Cardinals' offensive line is short about three starters.
Newton will likely need a little more time to develop and mesh with his offense, but he seemed to enjoy the spotlight in his one season in college. He isn't likely to have many opportunities to win games this season, but a repeat victory over the Cardinals in Week 1 is certainly one of his better shots.
September 18th: Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
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Unless the Titans are able to make a big move for a QB in free agency, they will likely be sending Kerry Collins out to throw the ball...at least early in the season. Collins certainly isn't the QB he was several seasons ago, and Smith will look to take advantage of issues at QB. The Titans receivers are also yet to prove their abilities, so this could be a big game for Smith in pass defense.
The biggest weakness I see in Smith's game is his run support. While he is a big hitter, he does take bad lines in run support at times. Facing off against Chris Johnson will provide an early indicator of how his transition to the pro game is coming. Smith could end up looking great and lacking in the same game.
September 25th: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers
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This game will take on a completely different look based upon who will be throwing the ball to Green. Carson Palmer may or may not be back, but there are rumors that they have already worked out a deal to send him to Seattle. If so, the Bengals may look to add a veteran to give Dalton some time to learn.
Still, one of the 49ers' biggest issues this offseason is their secondary. They did add three bodies for the unit, but didn't likely do much to improve their pass defense. The addition of Aldon Smith may help force the QB to throw the ball earlier, but not taking Prince Amukamara could haunt the 49ers.
A.J. Green will get an opportunity early in his career to take advantage of a mismatch. If the Bengals can get him the ball, he could have a very big day. After all, if someone with the questionable talent of T.J. Houshmandzedeh can look like a big star playing opposite of "The Chad," just imagine what Green will do!
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October 2nd: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
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The Falcons had a huge game in Seattle in 2010, although most of that was thanks to their defense. Still, the Seahawks entered the 2011 offseason needing a CB and a SS safety. They also needed to apply more consistent pressure on the QB.
Seattle attempted to address those issues, but likely came well short of matching up with the offensive talent the Falcons will put on the field. This will be the first weekend that Jones will get to benefit from playing opposite Roddy White.
October 9th: Christian Ponder vs. Patrick Peterson/Vikings vs. Cardinals
5 of 17
Ponder will be wanting to start Day 1, and will likely be given that opportunity. He ran an offense with enough similarity to the Vikings to allow him to make the transition, and the Vikings don't have a better option at the moment. I can also see Ponder beating out Donovan McNabb if he is signed by the Vikings.
While his primary motivation will be to help his team win, part of it will be to silence the critics that said the Vikings reached for him with the 12th pick. With the talent around him, all he'll need is an opportunity...and maybe a willing opponent with a weak secondary.
The Cardinals certainly upgraded with Peterson, but there could be opportunities for Ponder to find holes in their secondary. Peterson will be looking forward to another matchup against a rookie QB.
October 16th: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Saints made a big sacrifice to pick up a new RB. His worth won't be measured in what he does against a lesser opponent, such as the Panthers the week before. Ingram was acquired to help them win big games.
Week 6 will give the Saints the opportunity to go into Tampa Bay and remind the Buccaneers just where they stand in the division's pecking order. They will be relying on Ingram to help carry the load and have a big game against their rival.
October 23rd: Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
7 of 17
As much as the Chiefs needed some help for Dwayne Bowe, there were questions regarding using a late first-round pick for any WR, let alone Baldwin. Torrey Smith, Greg Little and Randall Cobb were all there when the Chiefs picked in Round 2.
Baldwin will look to go against a fierce division rival and show his new bosses they made the right decision. However, it is yet to be determined how fierce the Raiders will be in 2011, as they are parting ways with much of their top talent.
October 30th: Mike Pouncey and Daniel Thomas, Dolphins @ Giants
8 of 17
While much of their pass rush came from the outside, the Giants gave the offensive lines fits in 2010. They'll look to do the same this next season. Mike Pouncey will have a chance in hostile territory to show he can provide protection for whatever QB lines up for the Dolphins, and open holes for whatever RB they end up with.
Wait...the Dolphins are unsettled at QB and RB, yet they still took an OG with questions surrounding his ability to open holes and sustain blocks? Huh...
Daniel Thomas will be wanting to show the Dolphins made the right choice on Pouncey by grabbing him in the second round. He's a big, physical runner who will look to showcase his talents behind Pouncey. The Giants are far from an easy defense, so look for the Dolphins offense to show how close they are to being a legit unit.
November 6th: Ras-I Dowling vs. Prince Amukamara/Patriots vs. Giants
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While very, very, very few people would question the Giants for taking Amukamara where they did, Dowling does have a chance to be a better professional CB. He has the needed size and skills to be an elite CB, and is now in the system to let him thrive.
Both of these CBs will have their hands full in this game. While it typically takes a few seasons for CBs to adjust to the pro game, this is far enough into the season to appreciate the early returns on both players. Playing against solid offensive units should give a good glimpse of what stands in front of both players.
November 13th: Jake Locker vs. Cam Newton, Titans @ Panthers
10 of 17
I don't anticipate seeing Locker under center to start the season, but as of yet, the only other option is Kerry Collins. I don't see him leading this team to the playoffs, and come early November, the Titans could be struggling enough to open the door for their rookie QB to step up and show why he was worthy of the eighth pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.
His motivation in this game won't be just to show he was worth his draft spot, though. He will be facing the Panthers that made Cam Newton the top pick. Locker may want to give Carolina and their fans a glimpse at what they could have had.
This game isn't likely to count for much for Newton, though. He will likely be the starter for the Panthers this year, and he'll have easier games on his schedule.
November 20th: Robert Quinn, St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
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Robert Quinn will likely be used as a rotation player in 2011, so he should be able to stay fresh. With James Hall at 34 years of age, Quinn is the future of the RDE position.
The Seahawks have had major issues on the offensive line in recent seasons, but used their first two picks in the draft to help shore up their line. Quinn could see a few reps on the left side, which would pit him against the Seahawks' first pick, James Carpenter. However, he'll likely spend most of his time working against Russell Okung, who was a top-10 pick by the Seahawks last season.
This will give the Rams a good opportunity to see what they have in Quinn. He and Okung will likely be facing off for years to come in this big divisional rivalry.
Thanksgiving Day: Tyron Smith and Bruce Carter, Cowboys vs. Dolphins
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This could be the least-sexy matchup on the list, but what other team can I showcase on Thanksgiving weekend? I thought about the Lions, but they have a better tag-line a few weeks from here.
Tyron Smith was a longshot to be a first-round pick last January when I came to the conclusion he was the best OT in the draft class. About the only change I didn't make in all my mocks was keeping him going to Dallas.
The Dolphins don't exactly have a torrid pass rusher or aggressive run-stopper who will be lined up opposite Smith. Darnell Dockett should give Smith a great opportunity the following week to show how he has made the transition from college to the big time, but the national stage should provide a favorable matchup for Smith.
On the other side of the ball, Carter was a surprise pick for the Cowboys in Round 2. He'll likely be at the weak inside LB position, and issues with the Dolphins offense should provide plenty of opportunities for him to make some big plays.
December 4th: Anthony Castonzo and Benjamin Ijalana, Colts @ Patriots
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Indianapolis made a concerted effort to beef up the offensive line. Protecting Peyton Manning and letting him pick apart opposing secondaries will be the key to the Colts making another run at the Super Bowl.
Getting there will mean showing they are a better team than the Patriots (amongst others), and they will have an opportunity to go into Foxborough and show how far they've come. The Patriots don't have the most dominant front seven in the game, but in a hostile environment, the Colts will be able to weigh their draft.
December 11th: Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
14 of 17
The Lions were pleasantly surprised to see Fairley still on the board as their first-round pick was approaching. He was considered a possible top-overall choice earlier in the offseason, and was a player the Lions' staff coveted, but didn't think they'd have an opportunity to get.
Adding him to their lineup seems directed squarely at stopping the rushing attack of the Minnesota Vikings. They will get the chance to showcase the decision at Ford Field in a game that could have playoff implications for both teams. Yes, the Lions could challenge for the playoffs in 2011, and their defense will be a big part of it. Now if they can just find a little help for their offensive line in free agency...
December 18th: James Carpenter vs. Gabe Carimi, Seahawks @ Bears
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The Seattle Seahawks came under significant fire for their decision to not only draft Carpenter in Round 1, but also to take him over Gabe Carimi. These two will share a cold field in December and be able to let their abilities show on the field.
Both of these tackles are likely to be facing stout defensive lines, but that is contingent on the Seahawks keeping Red Bryant, et al healthy this season. Carimi will have a chance to make the Seahawks regret their decision, and Tom Cable is expected to have his line working at full steam to make the pundits eat their words on how bad a decision it was for Seattle to take the OT they thought best fit their system.
December 24th: Von Miller vs. Marcell Dareus/Broncos @ Bills
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I'll admit, neither of these teams figure to make much of a splash in 2011. The Broncos could contend in the AFC West, but that is still a longshot; the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders all look to be well ahead of them at this point.
However, we will feature two of the top rookies in this game. Von Miller will be out to prove that the Broncos made the right decision, and Dareus will certainly want to show John Elway that he would have been a better pick to play in Mile High.
January 1st: J.J. Watt vs. Jake Locker, Texans vs. Titans
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Watt was one of the many DEs pegged from going seventh in the 2011 draft all the way back to the 20 spot. The Texans were happy to take him with the 11th pick, and he will be happy to finish out the season against a division rival.
The Colts will likely control the division in 2011, but the other three teams could make some noise. The Titans in particular have enough talent, and the Texans will be on their home field with the possibility to keep them from making the playoffs.
Watt could very well be enjoying an opportunity to take aim at Jake Locker, and let the Titans know that perhaps they should have taken him early and worked on a trade for later in the first round to get Locker.
At the same time, Locker will have his final chance to make a statement on his rookie campaign. The Texans's defense could provide a target-rich environment for him to end on a high note. That is if he doesn't end up in the postseason.
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