NFL Draft 2011: New England Patriots Picks Classified

As the 2011 NFL Draft approaches, it's natural to look back at prior drafts and see how each player's career unfolded. Guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay drone on about how some players were busts but don't really specify why. Does anyone else think it's a mistake to say simply that a guy was a bust?  There are degrees of failure and a player's career can get derailed for many reasons.   

I want to propose a new four-tiered system for how we classify the wisdom of past draft picks. Using Patriots players as examples, the system looks like this:

The Winning Lottery Tickets—A pretty self explanatory category, these players turned out to be great picks, regardless of when they were drafted. Over the past eleven years this group includes Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Matt Cassel, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.    

The Slight Misfires—This tier is reserved for players who weren't total disasters but didn't really live up to expectations. Ben Watson is a great example of a Slight Misfire. In six years with the Patriots he caught 167 passes for 2,102 yards and 20 touchdowns; good but not great. Durability was also a problem with him. Watson has been in the league for seven seasons now and missed time in five of them. Projected to be the next Ben Coats, you'd have to say that, overall, he was a disappointment.  

Laurence Maroney was also a Slight Misfire. Taking the good with the bad, he did a fine job splitting carries with Corey Dillon and returning kicks in 2006. He also had his moments in 2007 when Sammy Morris was lost for the season. In five years as a New England Patriot he rushed for 2,430 yards and 21 touchdowns. His stats were good, but you expect a hell of a lot more from a first-round draft pick. To say Maroney was a bust wouldn't be fair; more of a letdown. He couldn't carry full time, developed a fumbling problem and was not particularly durable.  

The Black Cats—This class is reserved for guys whose careers were cut short by injury before they could even get started. Robert Edwards is the most glaring example; he was probably not going to be Curtis Martin but he certainly showed he was worth a first-round draft pick. As a rookie he played all 16 games and rushed for 1,115 yards and 9 touchdowns. It makes me crazy thinking how good he could have been. Andy Katzenmoyer is another one. He looked like a fine player until a neck injury cut short his promising career.  

Tyrone McKenzie and Shawn Crable are two recent examples of Black Cats. Shawn Crable was supposed to be the next great linebacker in Foxborough, but it wasn't meant to be. In three years he played in six games and had just four tackles and a sack. He was placed on injured reserve in 2008, 2009 and finally on the PUP list in 2010. Who knows how good Crable might have been if he had able to stay healthy?

The Lost Causes—Simply put, these are players that did absolutely nothing in the NFL. Jeff Marriott, David Nugent, Casey Tisdale, Brock Williams, Hakim Akbar, Rohan Davey, Spencer Nead, P.K. Sam, Andy Stokes, Chad Jackson, Oscar Lua and Kevin O'Connell are a few Patriots that belong in this bin.

The future looks bright for the Patriots. Bill Belichick has broken out of the draft slump he was in from 2006 to 2008. In 2009 they nabbed a couple of starters and kicked ass in 2010. Director of Player Personell Nick Caserio seems like an intelligent guy who knows what he's doing.  

Three years from now who will be the Winning Lottery Tickets, Slight Misfires, Black Cats and Lost Causes of the 2011 NFL Draft? Time and fate will tell.