College Football 2011: 6 Teams That Won't Live Up to Their Over/Under Odds

Last week I did a piece on the over/under odds I gave for each FBS college football program in regards to wins for 2011.

While I liked the piece and many of the O/U numbers I gave for most of the teams, upon further review there were a couple teams that I think won't live up or down to the odds I gave.

So I've decided to run through the quick list of those of teams that I think will have different seasons than I originally predicted in last week's story. 

Let's get started.

6. Nevada

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LAS VEGAS - OCTOBER 02: Nevada Reno Wolf Pack head coach Chris Ault (C) is flanked by quarterbacks Tyler Lantrip #16 and Mason Magleby #13 as Ault watches his players take on the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium October 2, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Nevad

Originally I gave the Wolfpack a over/under number of nine wins. I think I have to lower that number.

This is not an indictment of Chris Ault or his coaching at all.

Aside from Jim Mastro bolting for UCLA to take over the Bruin rushing attack, the big story is the loss of all-world QB Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick was the offense for Ault and Nevada.

Losing a player like him—especially at the QB position—is just too big to overcome.

5. UCLA

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KNOXVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 12: Rick Neuheisel, head coach of the UCLA Bruins talks with Kevin Prince #14 of the UCLA Bruins during a timeout against the Tennessee Volunteers on September 12, 2009 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. The Bruins beat

Rick Neuheisel is bent on keeping the pistol offense in Westwood and went out and hired Jim Mastro from pistol running expert Nevada to coach up the Bruins' running attack.

However, I just don't see UCLA winning six games next year. The Bruins program is in flux in my opinion.

There's only marginal talent on the roster and the Pac-12 has teams in the conference that are just flat out better than UCLA is.

4. Tulsa

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SOUTH BEND, IN - OCTOBER 30: G.J. Kinne #4 of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane throws a pass against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish rushes at Notre Dame Stadium on October 30, 2010 in South Bend, Indiana. Tulsa defeated Notre Dame 28-27. (Photo by Jonathan Danie

Tulsa is a team that makes this list in a good way.

I gave the Golden Hurricane program an O/U number of 10 wins. But I would like to raise that to 11, as I just think G.J. Kinne will be dynamic yet again for Tulsa.

Kinne returns all five offensive line starters and they will give him time to pick apart defenses and hang some serious points on the scoreboard each fall Saturday.

Bill Blakenship will make some subtle tweaks and roll along.

3. Stanford

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MIAMI, FL - JANUARY 03: Andrew Luck #12 of the Stanford Cardinal throws pass against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium on January 3, 2011 in Miami, Florida. Stanford won 40-12. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty

Stanford did the right thing in hiring David Shaw to take over for Jim Harbaugh. Shaw will try to keep as much continuity within the program as possible, including the offense with Andrew Luck.

Having Luck for Shaw is like Jim Caldwell having Peyton manning, Bill Belichick having Tom Brady and Sean Payton having Drew Brees: he has a truly elite QB that understands the game and raises the level of play around him.

However, Luck will be working behind a revamped offensive line in Palo Alto. That doesn't spell for good things to happen, especially early in the season as the front gets their feet wet.

The Cardinal may see a tad of a drop in 2011.

2. Miami

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MIAMI, FL - OCTOBER 9: Jacory Harris #12 of the Miami Hurricanes hrows the ball against the Florida State Seminoles on October 9, 2010 at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)

I think Al Golden will be the right fit for The U going forward, but Golden needs to find an elite QB recruit on the trail and roll with him going forward.

From the talks around the spring and the spring game, the Hurricanes still have QB problems.

Jacory Harris has failed to develop a protection of the football in his game and is liable to toss an interception anytime he drops back. Stephen Morris is not much better either.

If Miami is to achieve the O/U number of eight wins I gave them, it will be done with defense and special teams.

1. Ohio State

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COLUMBUS, OH - MARCH 30: Head Coach Jim Tressel listens to a member of the media during a press conference before the start of Spring practices at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center at The Ohio State University on March 30, 2011 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by

I gave the Buckeyes an O/U of 10. While they can achieve 10 wins this season, I just think the off the field stories and distractions will to be too much to overcome.

The starting QB, LT, WR, RB and head coach are out the first five games of the season? Then, the head coach is facing extreme and severe penalties from the NCAA about lying for the players? The investigation is ongoing and will last throughout the entire season?

Then, a talented but still true freshman QB may be the opening day starter?

All that would be amazing to overcome for a 10 win season if you ask me.