Unsung Hero: Why the Cleveland Browns Should "Reach" with Their First Pick

With the NFL draft fast approaching, the debate about whom the Browns should select with their sixth overall pick is being overanalyzed ad nauseam.

Everyone knows the usual suspects and the reasons for selecting them, but allow me to throw a new name into the mix that has been largely overlooked: Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan. Though projected as a mid-first rounder, Kerrigan is actually the best 4-3 defensive end in this draft.

Kerrigan has somehow been labeled as an effort player (as if that is a bad thing), and has been cast into the shadows behind flashier prospects DaQuan Bowers and Robert Quinn. But this is baseless rhetoric.

At the NFL combine, Kerrigan posted the exact same 10-yard split time of 1.61 as Quinn, the drafts supposed most explosive pass rusher. Given that one of Kerrigan’s strengths is snap anticipation, this clear display of athleticism suggests he may develop into a better pass rusher than either Bowers or Quinn.

But it is not just his combine performance that suggests as much; the game tape does too. Over the last three years Kerrigan has finished with sack totals of seven (2008), 12 (2009) and 12.5 (2010), making him the only player in the top 50 total sack leaders during that time period. It also made him the only player in the top 10 over the last two years (Von Miller was close at 11th in 2010). Kerrigan is a playmaker; he finished the last three years with 11.5 TFL and two FF (2008), 18.5 TFL and seven FF (2009) and 26 TFL and five FF (2010). 

What does this mean? Several things. First, that unlike both Bowers and Quinn, Kerrigan has demonstrated that he can consistently pressure the quarterback. Second, because his sacks came against better talent, he is more likely to successfully transition to the next level. Third, even though Quinn is talked up for his excellent sophomore year, Kerrigan eclipsed him by a total sack that year and had very similar other stats (18.5 TFL and seven FF to Quinn’s 19 TFL and six FF) yet gets no lip service. And finally, unlike Bowers who was a non-factor for two years before breaking out, Kerrigan has been effective since he became a starter. Kerrigan is the closest thing to a sure bet the Browns could pick up at this position.

Kerrigan should be selected before either Bowers or Quinn. He is the most well-rounded end of the three. He has better instincts than Quinn and will be less of a liability against the run, and unlike Bowers he did not rely on just brute strength to generate his pass rush. Bowers’ ability to overpower his opponent will be negated at the NFL level, and with a much slower first step, I see bust written all over him, even without the knee issues.

Scouting reports mention that Kerrigan’s negatives are that he needs to use his hands more, needs a wider array of counter moves when blocked, and plays too narrow against double teams. The fact that this guy’s draft status is lowered for things that are easily taught at the next level while the top prospects have actual red flag concerns baffles me.

Do I think it likely the Browns pick Kerrigan at six? If Tom Heckert truly bases his selections on game tape I do. But I also am starting to doubt the Browns will be picking at six at all.

In an exceptionally well-written article that can be found here, Beacon Journal writer Nate Ulrich sat down with GM Tom Heckert as he outlined his drafting philosophy. In summary, Heckert will have two names penciled in at the No. 6 spot, and if neither player is available, the Browns will look to trade down.

Heckert is not going to be gambling on risky players. He has said he expects to hit on six players this draft who will contribute to the team. Therefore, Heckert’s targets (especially the early ones) will be low-risk prospects. 

Only three of the top prospects are considered “sure things”: Von Miller, Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. It does not really matter who is the odd man out because if any of the three are available, he will most likely be taken.

But it is beginning to look less and less like this will be the case. It is much more likely the Browns find themselves on the clock looking at those risky defensive linemen and a few players who can hopefully garner trade interest.

If the Browns generate a trade, every spot down closes that gap between Kerrigan’s projection and the Brown’s selection. By trading down and taking Kerrigan, the Browns would be ensuring themselves a contributing starter for their defensive front seven while gathering extra picks for team needs. But even if they cannot get a trade, Kerrigan is still worthy of the sixth pick, despite popular opinion.

Luckily the Browns have a general manager who could care less about popular opinion. He is going to pick who he thinks is the best player available. As Browns fans, we have seen it before:

"Media-wise there were questions whether T.J. was worth the pick, and we said 'this guy is a good football player. He is going to come in here and start for us and he is worth that pick.' You can try to get cute and say maybe he'll be there later in the second round, so you try to trade down and you lose him. How stupid is that? If you like the guy, take him. Don't try to get too cute." – Tom Heckert

So does Heckert think Kerrigan is that type of player? According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Plain Dealer, “[Heckert] couldn't say enough about Purdue pass-rusher Ryan Kerrigan: "He's another high-motor guy, an excellent pass-rusher and supreme playmaker.” Makes you wonder why Heckert would even mention a player who clearly will not be around in the second, unless of course he is thinking of taking him when he will be available. I like to think he was preparing the fan base for what will be an initially unpopular, but extremely intelligent, personnel decision.