2011 NFL Mock Draft: Fresh 7-Round Needs-Based Mock Draft for Buffalo Bills
As we are now only three days away from the start of the 2011 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills are in the late stages of finalizing their draft board.
There will be an increase in phone calls over the next three days as teams attempt to feel each other out, find out who is open to trading up in certain rounds and who is open to trading down in certain rounds. For some teams, they won't know that answer until the pick that is due right before them is turned in for the announcement.
But for the Bills, with all of their various holes and needs, this is a draft that no doubt will see them take some rounds to take the best athlete off of the board, while other picks will be addressed to fill a specific need that the team needs to upgrade.
For my final mock draft coming into the real thing on Thursday, April 28th, I will make a full seven-round mock draft that is focused on the Bills' needs side of the coin. For each selection, I will list one backup pick, just in case our preferred pick is already off of the board.
As we enter Round 2, the lay of the land starts to get a little more murky due to surprises, trades and teams uncovering gems that were never discussed before. As a result, we will also include some names to tuck away for Rounds 2 to 7.
As always, if you care to leave your own mock picks in the comments, feel free to mock away.
Identifying the Bills Overall Team Needs
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The draft is just one place where Buddy Nix and his people can address the team needs of the Buffalo Bills. With free agency still up in the air, the draft is the best place to improve the team. Hopefully, there is not a major list of needs still left when free agency starts.
We have broken the issues down into primary and secondary needs as follows:
Bills' Primary Team Needs on Offense: Franchise QB, right tackle and a tight end that can block and catch.
Bills Secondary Team Needs on Offense: Greater depth at offensive line, a backup QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick and depth at skill positions.
Bills Primary Team Needs on Defense: Starting defensive end, starting inside linebacker, starting outside linebacker and safety.
Bills Secondary Team Needs on Defense: Greater depth at cornerback, defensive line rotation depth and depth at linebacker—inside and outside.
Round 1: Overall Pick No. 3
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Need: Defensive Line
My Pick: Marcell Dareus, Alabama Defensive Lineman
My selection with the overall third pick would be Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus. Dareus is the type of player that makes everyone around him better, and that is something you can hang your hat on. From helping to stuff the run, to taking up multiple blockers at the line of scrimmage, to caving in the pocket on the quarterback, Dareus would help the defense in many ways.
At 6'3" and 319 pounds, Dareus is very difficult to move off the line of scrimmage. The flexibility that he offers due to the multiple spots he lined up at Alabama can't be underscored enough either. No question in my mind that Dareus would be the best pick for the Bills, but will he be there when the Bills are on the clock?
Need: Outside Linebacker
Backup Pick if Dareus Is Gone: Texas A&M Linebacker Von Miller
It is looking more and more like Denver will use their pick ahead of Buffalo to select Dareus. If that happens, you have multiple directions the Bills could go, assuming that Carolina drafts Cam Newton as most draft experts predict. Von Miller is the easy choice for the Bills.
At 6'3" and 246 pounds, the Bills would take advantage of Miller's natural skills in rushing the passer to combine him with Shawne Merriman, Kyle Williams and Arthur Moats to bring substantial heat to the quarterback on passing situations. This quartet should allow the Bills to come close or eclipse the 40-sack barrier in 2011.
The selection of Dareus or Miller will be the first step at providing a major upgrade to the Bills defense for years to come.
Round 2: Overall Pick 34
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Need: Franchise/Backup Quarterback
My Pick: Christian Ponder, Florida State Quarterback
At this juncture, it is too early to know if Christian Ponder will come in and serve as a backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick and then a placeholder until a franchise quarterback comes along, or if Ponder is the real deal and the QB that the team has been seeking since Jim Kelly retired.
If the Bills decide to draft Ponder at No. 34, it is because they believe he has the potential to be their franchise QB, and as Nix and Gailey have said numerous times, the need to find a franchise QB trumps everything else.
At 6'2" and 229, Ponder has good size, but is not as tall as Newton, Kaepernick, Gabbert or Mallett. What he does do is come out of a pro-style offense, where he will need less time to transition to the NFL game. He is the brightest QB out of the group we just identified above, and will be able to be mobile enough and accurate enough to be an effective game manager.
After the 2011 season has concluded, if Ryan Fitzpatrick and his agent demand more money than the Bills are prepared to pay, you would then be looking to hand the ball to Ponder to lead the Bills offense. If the Bills wind up drafting an Andrew Luck or a Matt Barkley is 2012, then Fitzpatrick is more expendable and the Bills would have a talented starter and backup secured for the future.
Need: Inside Linebacker
Backup Pick if Ponder Is Gone: Martez Wilson, Illiniois LB
Martez Wison is 6'4" and 250 pounds. He is supposed to be an athletic playmaker-type that runs all over the field. Inside linebackers coach Dave Wannstedt will have to take Wilson under his wing to make some improvements, such as changing direction better and not being fooled by play fakes. But for creating sacks, turnovers and making plays behind the line of scrimmage, Wilson is one of the few inside linebackers that is worthy of consideration at this early juncture.
Other Names To Tuck Away: Colin Kaepernick (Nevada QB), Phil Taylor (Baylor nose tackle), Danny Watkins (Baylor guard), Stephen Paea (Oregon State defensive line) and Cam Heyward (Ohio St defensive end).
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Round 3: Overall Pick 68
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Need: Right Tackle
My Pick: James Carpenter, Alabama Tackle
James Carpenter is 6'4" and 321 pounds. Depending on the scouting report you see, Carpenter is thought to be anywhere from the third to the eighth-best tackle in the draft. If he is still on the big board with the pick at 68, the Bills would have to consider themselves fortunate to land him.
Carpenter is not without his share of holes in his game, but then again, none of these linemen were perfect coming in. He did get to go up against Marcell Dareus in practice, and he was battle-tested against some talented defensive linemen in the SEC.
Need: Inside Linebacker
Backup Pick if Carpenter Is Gone: Kelvin Sheppard, LSU Inside LB
Kelvin Sheppard has made a visit to Buffalo to be worked out by the Bills. He fits the description of what Buddy Nix was seeking, when he said that he wanted to bring in some bigger inside linebackers. Sheppard goes 6'2" and weighs 250 pounds. He also comes out of the talent-rich SEC and was asked to be the main force in the LSU defense.
For a detailed scouting report on Sheppard, go to this link. As you will see, Sheppard puts up serious numbers and is worthy of consideration here. Based on what happened with the first two picks, the Bills may not need to land a linebacker as urgently as they did before, so that will obviously influence what they do.
Other 3rd-Round Names To Tuck Away: Bruce Carter, (No. Carolina linebacker), John Moffitt (Wisconsin guard) and Ras-I Dowling (Virginia corner).
Round 4a: Overall Pick 100
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Need: Inside Linebacker
My pick: Casey Matthews, Oregon Inside Linebacker
Casey Matthews is just one more in the long line of Matthews boys that have played in the NFL. It is in his blood. Too bad he doesn't have the body of Clay Matthews, Jr. But if he did, he wouldn't still be sitting here available with the pick at 100.
Matthews goes 6'1" and weighs 231 pounds. The linebacker shows great instincts, which is to be expected.
For a scouting report that highlights some of Matthews strengths and weaknesses, go here. Matthews has battled some injuries during the offseason, which is one of the reasons he should still be here when the Bills are on the clock at 100.
Need: Fullback
Backup Pick if Matthews Is Gone: Owen Marecic, Stanford FB/LB
Owen Marecic is a unique player. Going both ways at Stanford, he is probably going to initially focus on playing fullback at the NFL level and contribute on special teams.
Corey McIntyre is already 32 years old, so it makes sense for the Bills to consider adding Marecic, who gives the Bills a solid lead-blocker option and he can catch the ball out of the backfield. Marecic is one of those old-time throwback kind of players, and you need guys like that on your football team.
Other 4th-Round Names To Tuck Away: Jarvis Jenkins (Clemson nose tackle), Luke Stocker (Tennessee TE) and Tyler Sash (Iowa safety).
Round 4b: Overall Pick 122
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Need: Tight End
My Pick: Virgil Green, Nevada Tight End
In case the name Virgil Green is somewhat familiar to you, he turns out to be the guy that had set the NFL scouting combine on its ear with an impressive showing during the testing phase for tight ends. Green is 6'3" and weighs 249 pounds. Despite his size, he was able to run the 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds, do a broad jump of 10'10", a vertical jump of 42.5" and even knock off 23 reps at the bench press.
For a scouting report on Green, check this out. He did continue to increase his production each year at Nevada, so he is somebody that could challenge Scott Chandler and Shawn Nelson for the starting tight end position.
Need: Defensive Line Depth
Backup Pick if Green Is Gone: Kenrick Ellis, Hampton Defensive Tackle.
Kenrick Ellis attended a very small school, but there is nothing small about Ellis physically; he is as big as they come. Standing at 6'5" and weighing 346 pounds, it will take a major effort to move Ellis off of the line of scrimmage.
For a little more background information on Ellis, here is a scouting report on him.
More 4th-Round Names To Tuck Away: DeMarcus Van Dyke (Miami, Florida corner), Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin tight end) and James Brewer (Indiana tackle).
Round 5: Overall Pick 133
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Need: Defensive Line Depth
My Pick: Jurrell Casey, USC Defensive Tackle
Jurrell Casey has been sort of passed over or forgotten during the pre-draft period. If he survives down to the fifth round, the Bills will discover a talented big man that would be ideal to add in helping out on the planned rotation for defensive linemen to keep everybody fresh during the game.
Casey is 6'1" and weighs 300 pounds. For an in-depth scouting report on Casey, go here.
Need: Cornerback
Backup Pick if Casey Is Gone: Jalil Brown Colorado Cornerback
Jalil Brown is a talented corner that is 6'1" and weighs 204 pounds. While his teammate Jimmy Smith is usually the guy that gets most of the attention, it was Brown that usually got the chance to face off against top-flight receivers, as other teams would avoid throwing the ball in the direction of Smith.
For a scouting report on Brown, check this out.
Other 5th-Round Names To Tuck Away: Julius Thomas (Portland State tight end), Charles Culliver (South Carolina safety) and Chykie Brown (Texas cornerback).
Round 6: Overall Pick 169
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Need: Inside Linebacker
My pick: Alex Wujciak, Maryland Inside Linebacker
Alex Wujciak is a talented tackling machine. He can be a backup linebacker initially to Paul Posluszny and can also contribute on special teams. He can also compete with Andra Davis for his job, and if either starter goes down, it would be nice to know that you have someone like Wujciak that you can turn to.
Wujciak is 6'3" and 247 pounds. For a detailed look at his game, check this out.
Need: Safety
Backup Pick if Wujciak Is Gone: Robert Sands, West Virginia Safety
Robert Sands is an unusually tall safety at 6'4" and weighs 217 pounds. Sands would serve as insurance to the Donte Whitner contract talks and can serve as a backup to George Wilson while he learns the pro game. He could also come in and play on special teams.
Here is a scouting report on Sands to give you a better appreciation for what he brings to the Bills.
Other 6th-Round Names To Tuck Away: Buster Skrine (Tennessee Chattanooga cornerback) and Stephen Ridley (LSU running back).
Round 7a: Overall Pick 206
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Need: Safety Depth
My pick: Shiloh Keo, Idaho Safety
It will be interesting to see if Shiloh Keo is drafted at all, and if so, where he goes. If there is a certain ring to his name and you happened to be tuned in the NFL scouting combine's workouts on the NFL Network channel, you would have remembered Keo's name. That is because he was being hyped by Mike Mayock and Deion Sanders as this do-everything, plays-with-a-big-heart kind of kid that you would want on your team.
If he gets drafted in the sixth or seventh round, you can thank the power of television. Here is the scouting report on Keo. He will no doubt be a strong special teams contributor and can work his way onto the nickel and dime packages. Keo is 5'11" and weighs 219 pounds.
Need: Safety Depth
Backup Pick if Keo Is Gone: Joe Lefeged, Rutgers Safety
Joe Lefeged is a 6'0", 210-pound safety from Rutgers. Lefeged is another of the many seventh-round secondary picks that could be there to help provide the Bills with some depth in the secondary.
Other 7th-Round Names To Tuck Away: Jeff Maehl (Oregon wide receiver), Jaiquawn Jarrett (Temple safety) and Orie Lemon (Oklahoma State linebacker).
Round 7b: Overall Pick 245
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Need: Cornerback Depth
My pick: Josh Thomas, University of Buffalo Cornerback
Josh Thomas stands a good chance to be selected anywhere in day three from Round 6 to Round 7. It would be a nice touch if he winds up being drafted by the Bills, since they are in need of some cornerback help with the expected departure of Drayton Florence.
Thomas can be seen going through his skills testing at the NFL scouting combine here. Thomas is 5'10" and weighs 191 pounds. His scouting report can be found here.
Need: Cornerback Depth
Backup Pick if Thomas Is Gone: Kendrick Bruney, North Carolina Cornerback
Kendrick Bruney is a 5'9" corner that weighs 186 pounds. His scouting report can be found here.
Other Names To Tuck Away for Late in Day 3: Ryan Bartholomew (Syracuse center) and Dom DeCicco (Pittsburgh safety).
There you have it, Bills fans. We will see how many of these picks are actually the property of the Bills when everything is said and done. Looking forward to seeing what Buddy Nix and company come up with.
Tune in over the three days of the draft, as we will continue to put up reactions and predictions as the various rounds unfold.
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