Fantasy Baseball Dilemma: Can Colby Lewis Return to Form?

Eric StashinApr 19, 2011

According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (click here for the post), Rangers manager Ron Washington “isn’t expecting Colby Lewis to pitch again this road trip as he awaits the birth of his second child, a daughter”. That turned out to be an accurate statement, as Lewis returns to the mound tonight against the Los Angeles Angels.

Considering the way he has pitched in the early going, the rest could be a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners. Lewis has struggled over his first two starts, posting a 5.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP against the Red Sox and Orioles.

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The WHIP isn’t too bad and he has struggled from a below average strand rate (67.8%), but it’s a small sample size. At this point you have to feel relatively confident that he will be able to put things together in that regard.

However, what has to be concerning is his lack of strikeouts. In 2010, his first season back from Japan, Lewis posted a K/9 of 8.78. Still, over his first two starts he has just 8 K in 12.0 IP, a K/9 of 6.00. So what has changed?

Most notably his fastball. In 2010 Lewis averaged 90.1 mph and, even before he went to Japan for a few seasons, he routinely averaged 90+ mph on his fastball. This season, however, he is down to 87.9 mph. Is it that he just hasn’t fully gotten his arm stretched out or is it something of more concern?

Obviously it’s too early to tell, but the fact that he now gets to avoid pitching in the new Yankees Stadium (as he was scheduled to prior to his week off) had to be a relief. With the way Lewis has been pitching it just felt like he was walking into imminent disaster. With that averted, we now have to decide how we proceed.

There’s no reason to cut bait and move on after two starts. Even with all the negatives against him, Lewis has still posted a solid WHIP. If he can get the strikeouts up, any decrease in luck (BABIP) will be offset.

There’s no guarantee that he is able to rediscover his fastball, but given his history you have to think that he will get there before long. Tonight he faces a Los Angeles Angels team that ranks 21st in the league in runs scored with 61 and fourth in the league in strikeouts with 130 (the Pirates lead the way with 139).

It seems like a perfect matchup for Lewis to get things rolling in the right direction once again. While he’s not a guarantee, he is a recommended option.

What are your thoughts? Do you think Lewis can get things back on track? Why or why not?

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