NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Top 20 Free Agent Contracts for 2011 Season
We all know that for all intents and purposes, free agency in the NFL right now is non-existent. But that will not be the case forever. At some point this spring, we are hopeful that a new agreement between the NFL owners and the players can be worked out. If it is still not here by the time we get to the summer, then the 2011 season will be in jeopardy and things then take on a much different tone and direction.
Since any new deal appears to be more likely to occur after the NFL draft than before it, NFL teams will at least have an idea of what positions they have to address via free agency, that they weren't able to address to their complete level of satisfaction at the draft.
Once the freeze is lifted, owners and general managers will be loosening up the purse strings to fight over whatever talent will conceivably give their team a better chance to land a playoff berth. If the new collective bargaining agreement winds up with another uncapped season, just like the prior 2010 season, then expect even greater pay days for those unrestricted free agents that are the cream of the crop at their position.
For the restricted free agents that have already been tendered, they are hopeful of at least generating enough interest so that their original team will have to step up with a reasonably high contract to match whatever offers that they have already received.
If you are Carson Palmer, you could only hope to be a free agent, but it looks like he is going to be at the mercy of Cincinnati Bengals owner Mike Brown. Good luck Carson, you are going to need it.
Who Exactly Are the 2011 Free Agents?
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Since we do not yet know the outcome of the new CBA talks, exactly which players are going to be free agents when the deal is completed is a big unknown. It is conceivable that players that were tendered a restricted free agent offer will have those tags removed and be totally unrestricted free agents. That would certainly be cause for a much wilder free agency period.
If you find yourself going through the list and wondering why a certain player is not on here, or why I included a guy that for all intents and purposes appears to be headed back to his old team, there are reasonable explanations.
There are literally hundreds of projected free agents, and to whittle them to the 32 most expensive is a very difficult task. I am going to start off with some noteworthy names here, sort of an honorable mention list to let you know that I was thinking about those specific players. But, short of the best crystal ball known in the history of man, I have no way of knowing what the final salaries will be and therefore know who is most expensive.
Notable free agents: Tamba Hali (KC LB), Randy Moss (TEN WR), Shaun Ellis (NYJ DE), De'Angelo Williams (CAR RB), Manny Lawson (SF LB), Pat Williams (MIN DT), Ryan Kalil (CAR C), Plaxico Burress (WR), Sidney Rice (MIN WR), Takeo Spikes (SF LB), Davin Joseph (TB G) and Ike Taylor (PIT CB).
For a great web site that shows current and future free agents by year, visit Walter Football.com.
20) LaMarr Woodley, Pittsburgh Linebacker
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LaMarr Woodley is one of the better free agent linebackers in the market. At only 26, Woodley has many years hopefully left in front of him to cash in on his talents.
In 2010, he was definitely a bargain, as he only was paid $550,000. That was a great investment by the Steelers, who were rewarded with 12 sacks, three forced fumbles, 57 tackles and two interceptions. The Buffalo Bills would have been ecstatic if they had received that much production for all the millions they are paying out to Aaron Maybin.
No matter what kind of deal Woodley signs for the 2011 season, you know that he will probably be rewarded with a very lucrative deal, probably pushing up towards the top five of his position, which quite frankly, is what he deserves.
He probably returns to Pittsburgh, but with this specific free agency in so much doubt, all bets are off.
Author's Note: With apologies to Steelers fans, learned after the piece ran that Woodley had in fact signed a tender offer, so he is not a free agent. My apologies again for the oversight.
19) Harvey Dahl, Atlanta Falcons Guard
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Harvey Dahl is a starting guard for the Atlanta Falcons. Sometimes, he is also sometimes known as target practice for Mike Singletary, but that is a whole different story.
Dahl is a big guard, 6'5" and 305 pounds. He appeared in 27 games for the Falcons over the past two years. He went undrafted out of college, and now that he is a NFL free agent, he finally has the opportunity to cash in his NFL experience for a much bigger payday.
Dahl is a fiery offensive lineman, so teams looking for a little more attitude along the line of scrimmage will no doubt have him on their radar screen.
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18) Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers Quarterback
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With so many NFL teams looking for quarterback help in the upcoming draft, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith might find that this is the right time to be hitting the open market as a free agent.
Smith was the first overall draft pick in the 2005 draft. From then until now, he has appeared in 54 games with the 49ers, and has a less-than-stellar touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio of 51 to 53, which is obviously not good.
Many people think the constant turnover of offensive coordinators during Smith's career with the 49ers has severely cut into his development at quarterback. Maybe, all he really needs is a change of scenery and a fresh start somewhere else.
Smith is 6'4" and 217 pounds, so he has a good NFL frame to quarterback and is only 26 years old. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets in San Francisco. Do the 49ers attempt to bring him back or let him walk?
17) Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings Defensive End
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The Minnesota Vikings are in a tough spot. They were close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago, but then fell on hard times last year. They come in to the 2011 offseason with a rather large number of free agents, ranging from Ray Edwards, Pat Williams, to Sidney Rice and others. They will be hard pressed to sign them all, so some of these players will wind up elsewhere. Could Ray Edwards be one of the players that moves on?
Edwards was a fourth-round draft pick back in 2006. Now hitting the free agent market, Edwards did receive a tender offer from the Vikings, but that does not prohibit him from seeing what other teams may pay for his services.
Edwards is 6'5" and weighs 268 lbs. He is only 26 years old. In his five years in Minnesota, Edwards has appeared in 72 games. So far, he has tallied 182 career tackles and 29.5 career sacks. He has forced six fumbles.
Edwards is a strong force at defensive end. It is not out of the question with the deep draft class at defensive end that his services are not needed as badly this offseason as they will be in the future. But, then again, all it takes is one other NFL team to shake things up.
16) James Jones, Green Bay Packers Wide Receiver
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Any time you win a Super Bowl, the rest of the teams in the NFL will try to snag one or more of your players, so that they can some valuable playoff experience to the team and to the locker room.
James Jones, wide receiver of the Green Bay Packers, finds himself with a Super Bowl ring, and a free agent to boot. Jones was a third-round draft pick in 2007. He has played in 58 out of 64 games, so is pretty reliable.
The Packers offense sees Aaron Rogers move the ball around to multiple receivers. They had at least seven different receivers last year with at least 20 catches. Jones finished the year with 50 catches, but that was only good for third on the team, behind Donald Driver (51) and Greg Jennings (76). So, if you subtract one wide receiver to free agency, it is not the end of the world for Green Bay.
Jones goes 6'1" and weighs 208 lbs. He has 149 career catches and has scored 13 career touchdowns. His average yards per catch is 13.6. At only 27 years old, he still has a number of productive years ahead of him, so you can rest assured that he is looking to cash in on a big pay day now.
15) Drayton Florence, Buffalo Bills Corner
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Drayton Florence joined the Buffalo Bills as a free agent in 2009. He signed a two-year deal and gave the Bills two very solid seasons at corner. Now that his contract has expired, he is ready to find a new employer again. Having watched all of his games over the past two seasons in Buffalo, I would rate him as a good run support corner and an adequate coverage guy.
Florence is 30 years old and is ready to enter his ninth year in the NFL. He is 6'0" and weighs 195 lbs. He was a second-round pick of San Diego back in 2003.
Florence has proven to be very reliable and durable, as he has only missed three games out of the past five years. During his career, he has amassed 391 tackles, (of which 337 were solo), had 2 forced fumbles, 14 interceptions and 75 passes defended.
We don't yet know how many years he still wants to play, but he is still effective and any team needing secondary help should be giving him a serious look.
14) Antonio Cromartie, New York Jets Corner
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Antonio Cromartie was brought in to the New York Jets team in 2010 as a hopeful ideal bookend to All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis.The plan worked to a degree because teams had no choice but to test Cromartie. He rose to the occasion by recording 17 passes defended and three interceptions.
Cromartie was a first-round draft pick by San Diego in 2006. By 2007, he was already a Pro-Bowl player and make the All-Pro team. Cromartie is a big corner, going 6'2" and weighing 210 lbs. He is now 27 years old, and ready to test the free agent waters.
For his career, Cromartie has 207 tackles, 18 career interceptions and 58 passes defended. Interestingly enough he has never forced a fumble, nor has he ever recorded a sack.
With all of the free agent decisions facing the Jets, it is conceivable that Cromartie will be too expensive for the Jets to retain, so NFL teams needing cornerback help with have Cromartie's representatives on speed dial. He figures to be one of the most expensive free agent corners on the market.
13) Cullen Jenkins, Green Bay Packers Defensive End
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Cullen Jenkins, just like James Jones before him, is another example of a Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers free agent that will be scooped up by some NFL team looking to fill a hole and add some playoff experience to their locker room.
Jenkins is one of those cases where he went undrafted out of college and worked his way up the roster until he became a starter. Jenkins has spent his entire career with Green Bay, having played in 93 games for the Pack. During his career, he has recorded 194 tackles, 29 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 3 blocked kicks and 1 interception.
Jenkins stands 6'2" and weighs 305 lbs. Maybe he has visions of a warmer climate, having spent his entire career playing on the "Frozen Tundra."
12) Chad Greenway, Minnesota Vikings Linebacker
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Chad Greenway has enjoyed a productive NFL career so far. Greenway was a first-round draft pick of the Minnesota Vikings in 2006. He has played in every single game over the past four years, and brings a strong overall game in to the new free agency period.
During his career, Greenway has averaged 100 plus tackles per year. He excels in pass coverage, as his 18 passes defended are among the highest I have witnessed for a linebacker. He has seven forced fumbles, 6.5 sacks, and five interceptions. He also is credited with 463 tackles. That is the kind of production you expect to get from a solid linebacker.
Greenway is 6'2" and weighs 242 pounds. He is 28 years old and still should have some very strong productive years ahead of him. He should be a highly sought after free agent.
11) Tyson Clabo, Atlanta Falcons Tackle
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Tyson Clabo was an undrafted rookie free agent who worked his way up the roster until he became a starter at tackle. His game continued to improve to the point that he was named to the Pro-Bowl team in 2010.
At 29 years old, Clabo doesn't have a ton of years left, but while he can still play, he would like to score his first truly big pay day when free agency begins.
At 6'6" and 332 pounds, Clabo is huge. He has formed solid chemistry over the years with guard Harvey Dahl, but some good things need to end. Clabo helped the Falcons to be third in the NFL at allowing the fewest sacks to their quarterback Matt Ryan, by giving up only 23 for the entire season.
10) Donte Whitner, Safety Buffalo Bills
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Donte Whitner was the eighth overall draft pick of the 2006 draft. Some may feel that he was a reach at that point in the draft. But, here we are five years later, and Whitner has been starting for the Bills ever since.
On a defense that was lit up by opposition running games, Whitner was there at safety to clean up the mess from the front seven time and time again. When the dust had finally settled on the 2010 season, Whitner found himself ranked as the fifth-best tackler in the NFL with 140 tackles. In fact, he was the only player in the top 10 that wasn't a linebacker.
Whitner has had a strange habit of making all kinds of various predictions that have never come true. Bills fans wish he would just create more turnovers, and make far fewer predictions. From a big play or turnover perspective, Whitner has only come up with five career interceptions and three forced fumbles.
For somebody with 451 career tackles, you would like to see more turnovers created. Maybe he can predict that he will be taking a pay cut in 2011? The Bills have tendered him an offer, but if they can worth anything out remains to be seen. Whitner was thought to be seeking a big pay day as a free agent, and the Bills offer was so upsetting to him, that he immediately cleaned out his locker and left the team complex.
For what it is worth, Whitner has only come up with one and a half sacks in his five years, to go along with 19 passes defended. Unless he comes down in his salary demands, you can expect him to be wearing a different jersey in 2011. If the Bills wind up drafting a safety in the first five rounds, that increases the likelihood that he will be playing elsewhere.
9) Terrell Owens, Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receiver
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As much as many fans would like to see Terrell Owens call it a day, and ride off into reality television for good, it is hard to get around the fact that he still continues to put up fairly big production numbers, even at this admittedly advanced stage of his career.
Now 37 years old, Owens is a physical specimen and keeps himself in shape. He is a big target at 6'3" and 224 pounds. It looks like at this stage of his career he is only good for a one-year cup of coffee before he wears out his welcome, and then moves on to the next city in need of a leading receiver.
If you think he is washed up, consider the following: In 2010, Owens led the Bengals in all of the following areas: most catches (72), most reception yardage (983), most touchdowns (9), most targets (139). longest catch of year (78 yards), most 20+ yard catches (15) highest average yards per game (70). He tied for the team lead in first down catches with Chad Ochocinco at 47, and he led the team in headaches caused to the coaches and to Carson Palmer (too many to count).
Just the year before, he did the same act in Buffalo, where he led the team in catches, targets, average yards per catch, longest catch, average yards/game, and first down catches. Going back to his final year at Dallas in 2008, Owens led the Cowboys in targets, yards, touchdowns, longest catch, 20+ yard catches and average yards/game.
Say what you will about his antics, but T.O. just continues to produce. Each year, Owens' agent Drew Rosenhaus does his song and dance act, and some team will fork over a big contract to Owens to help out their passing game. You can almost take it to the bank.
8) Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks Quarterback
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With so many NFL teams in need of help at the quarterback position, Seattle free agent quarterback Matt Hasselbeck might find a number of teams wanting to pounce on him as soon as free agency begins.
There are only so many quarterbacks realistically that are available to be drafted, but they will not be ready to actually play in the NFL until they have gone through their proper orientation program and on-the-job training, which means film room and clipboard holding.
Whether or not Seattle decides to counter the best offer that Hasselbeck receives remains to be seen. For his career, Hasselbeck has appeared in 170 games, and is still completing passes at a 60.1 percentage, which is just above the cutoff for acceptable. He is only 421 yards shy of hitting 30,000 yards in career passing. His 2010 season saw him hit the 3,000 yards passing mark for the seventh time in his career, but his touchdown to interception ratio was abysmal, with 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions.
Hasselbeck is 6'4" and weighs 225 lbs. He is 35 years old and is going to be entering his 13th year in the NFL. He might make sense to take as a free agent for a team that landed one of the top-seven quarterbacks in this draft, and wants somebody that can come on and mentor that new quarterback or help to bring him up to speed on life as an NFL quarterback.
7) Braylon Edwards, New York Jets Wide Receiver
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The New York Jets have an interesting situation on their hands. Both of their top wide receivers, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, are hitting the free agent market this offseason, and it has been well documented that the team can probably only afford to retain one of the two.
Since both are of the high-profile, expensive variety receivers, it makes sense that they both appear on the list. Both can realistically field offers, and then it will be up to the Jets to decide which one they really want to retain, while the other one walks away.
As for Edwards, he was the third-overall pick by the Cleveland Browns in the 2005 draft. He is a big receiver at 6'3" and 214 pounds. He is just 28 years old and will be entering his seventh NFL season, so figures to still have many productive years ahead of him.
For his career, Edwards has made 326 catches for 5,142 yards and 39 touchdowns. You know he stretches the field, based on his average yardage per catch, which is 15.8. That is a healthy average.
For any NFL team looking to add another weapon to their offensive arsenal, Edwards appears to be poised to receive a rather big pay check. But, from who?
6) Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers Wide Receiver
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After his lengthy contract holdout to begin the 2010 season, Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers wide receiver, is set to be a free agent in 2011. The Chargers naturally put the franchise tag on him, which probably takes him out of the market. He appears on this slide show only because we don't know for sure if the judge will do away with franchise tags as part of the agreement with the union.
If Jackson were to suddenly become a free agent, he would be a very expensive player to sign. Last year was really a season to forget due to the holdout. Jackson was a second-round draft pick of the San Diego Chargers back in 2005. Since then he has caught 212 passes for 3,648 yards and 28 touchdowns. What is most impressive is that he has averaged 17.2 yards per catch during his career. That screams big play receiver.
Jackson is a big target at 6'5" and 230 lbs. He is entering his seventh season in the NFL. If the Chargers stop playing contract games with him, Jackson can finally go out and sign a long-term deal somewhere. Until then he is hoping that the courts or the negotiations will allow to pursue another employer.
5) Paul Posluszny, Buffalo Bills Linebacker
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Paul Posluszny is one of the starting inside linebackers for the Buffalo Bills. He was drafted in the second round by the Bills in the 2007 draft. Posluszny was highly decorated coming out of college, as he was a two-time first team All-American linebacker in 2005 and 2006. In addition, Posluszny was the Dick Butkus and the Chuck Bednarik Awards.
Since joining the Bills, Posluszny has had to deal with some serious injuries. So far he has only played in 45 out of a possible 64 games. In the games that he has played, Posluszny has amassed 397 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 4 forced fumbles. He has also defended 14 passes, showing that he can be somewhat effective in dropping back in coverage.
For the Bills rush defense, which was last in the NFL in 2010, Posluszny does not have enough defensive linemen that are occupying blockers up front, that allow him to make plays on the ball carrier. It seems like he comes up and hits somebody at the line, or he is fighting off a block and trying to make a tackle 8-to-10 yards down the field.
In 2010, Posluszny finished third in the NFL with 151 tackles. Posluszny is 6'1" and weighs 238. He was tendered an offer by the Bills and it is thought that both sides would like to be reunited. If the tender offers become invalid, then all bets are off.
4) Rocky McIntosh, Washington Redskins Linebacker
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Just like Paul Posluszny, Rocky McIntosh is another talented linebacker that finds himself a free agent coming in to the 2011 season. McIntosh did not receive any tender offer, so he is an unrestricted free agent and will be sure to receive multiple teams demonstrating interest in him.
McIntosh was a second-round draft pick by the Redskins in 2006. During his career in Washington, McIntosh has made 406 tackles, 7 sacks, 8 forced fumbles, 3 interceptions and defended 17 passes. He is very durable, as he has appeared in 77 out of a possible 80 career games.
McIntosh is 6'2" and 239 lbs. He is 28 years old and will be entering his sixth season in the league. 2010 was the first time that he topped 100 tackles, and he figures to have many more productive years ahead of him.
3) Brodney Pool, New York Jets Safety
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Brodney Pool was originally drafted by the Cleveland Browns out of the University of Oklahoma in the second round of the 2005 draft. He is now entering his seventh season in the NFL, but will be doing it as a free agent.
Pool is a 6'2" safety that weighs 214 pounds. In his career he made 329 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 12 interceptions, and defended 46 passes.
In an article by Rich Cimini at ESPN, he sights a study conducted by Stats Inc, that shows that Pool did not allow a single touchdown pass over the second half of the season, that is something that will make general managers around the NFL sit up and take notice.
With all of the teams needing secondary help, there is no good reason that Pool needs to take a pay cut to play for the Jets. He should be getting some strong offers whenever free agency starts.
2) Santonio Holmes, New York Jets Wide Receiver
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Well, Jets fans, pick your poison. Do you want the low-flying Santonio Holmes next year, or do you want Braylon Edwards, who is flying high on his
5 Hour Energy Drinks? The Jets have a difficult choice to make, because they say that they can only afford one of the two star receivers.
What if the NFL comes out and woos both receivers with enough money that the Jets can't retain either player?
A recent blurb on Rotoworld.com on Holmes seems to indicate that he might not be long for the Jets, as seen in this April 9th update: free agent Santonio Holmes says he "flat out" will only sign a multi-year contract. "I played five years to wait for my sixth year to come up," said Holmes. "I don't want to play for a one-year deal. I wouldn't do it."
It sounds safe to assume that if last year's work rules remain in place, making Holmes a restricted free agent, he'll be holding out if he doesn't get a long-term offer from the Jets. He's also vowed to sign with the highest bidder if he gets his wish and hits the market. The chances he's back in New York in 2011 suddenly don't look as good.
Holmes is clearly a smaller receiver than Edwards, as he goes 5'11" and weighs 192 lbs. He was originally drafted in the first round by Pittsburgh in 2006. Since then he has made 287 catches for 4,581 yards and 26 touchdowns. Has an impressive yards per catch average of 16.0.
No matter where he plays in 2011, it appears to be an interesting offseason ahead for Santonio Holmes.
1) Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland Raiders Corner
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There are only so many shut-down-corners in the NFL, and Nnumdi Asomugha is surely one of the best, if not the very best. The Oakland Raiders had a clause in the contract with Asomugha that allowed for a escape clause, and so because of the clause, Asomugha is a free agent.
This is probably a situation where he will have multiple suitors poised to extend the largest free agent contracts in the market. If Asomugha wants to join a team that annually is in the playoff picture, he can do that. For playoff teams, this is one of those chances where you can add somebody to your team that is the best at his position, and not have to give up any compensation to the other team.That is a rare event.
Obviously, Asomugha will not be cheap. By taking away his side of the football field, his team can shift or rotate the remaining 10 defenders towards the other half of the field.That makes him an extremely valuable asset to have on your team.
Asomugha came up with eight interceptions in 2006, then teams stopped throwing his way. As a result he only had one interception over each of the next three years, until the streak stopped in 2010 when he had none. During his career, Asomugha has made 310 career tackles, of which 272 were of the solo variety. He has made 11 total interceptions, 2 sacks, 62 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles.
Since he has already played for eight seasons, this might be the last contract he signs, so expect it to be a big one. He is durable, having played in at least 15 of the 16 games, seven of the eight years in Oakland.
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