Cleveland Browns 2011 NFL Mock Draft: An Investigative Report
With draft day less than two weeks away, the season of the mock is in full effect.
Everyone from experts to amateurs (myself included) has been rearranging their draft boards, trying to guess just what players are going to end up on their favorite team’s roster.
While I’ve certainly enjoyed reading the speculation, I’ve found many mock selections without base.
They’re either the regurgitations of the rumor mill or the simple pining of fans hoping their team will select their favorite college players.
After questioning how certain prospects have been attached to the Cleveland Browns when the team hasn’t so much as sniffed in their general direction, I thought I would do something original: I would construct a mock draft based on team research.
The Rules
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Caution: This slide is long, so if you'd like immediate gratification, feel free to skip ahead. Do come back if you're questioning a selection though.
The following mock was constructed presuming:
First and foremost, that the players listed herein have actually been scouted by the Browns. It should go without saying that if the Browns are interested in a prospect, then they’ve taken the time to actually investigate that player.
That means that all selections have been shown documented interest by the Browns, whether at the combine, their pro-day, the senior bowl, or a private workout.
Second, that Tom Heckert is the acting general manager. Too many mocks out there are speculating on Holmgren’s draft history. Holmgren is smart president who trusts the staff he’s assembled. On draft day, it will be Heckert calling the shots.
Shurmur and Holmgren will offer their input. Holmgren may even pull rank in the right situation (á la McCoy), but if picks are going to be hypothesized based on anyone’s draft history, then that man should be Heckert.
Third, that the term “best player available” is a misconception. If teams truly drafted just based on overall ranking, then there would be nothing to keep a team from drafting the same position every round.
With numerous positions lacking starting-caliber players and facing the uncertainty of free agency, the Browns will have to draft at least a little by need in order to field a serviceable team in 2011.
This basically means that if two players are close on the overall draft board, and the second fills a position of need while the first’s position is relatively stable, then don’t expect the Browns to simply pass on the second.
And lastly, that the team will not make any trades. While this is contrary to both Heckert’s and Holmgren’s draft histories, guessing what trades the Browns will be able to make and how that would affect their draft picks is simply too chaotic to predict.
Round 1, Pick 6: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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Why: Quinn is a beast. He provides the Browns with the double-digit sack-producing end essential for Dick Jauron’s 4-3. The Browns are looking at all four top defensive linemen, but Dareus will be off the board, Fairley has character concerns, and Bowers has too much bust potential (even before the knee).
Scouting: Like Quinn, the Browns interest for him has flown under the radar. They talked at the combine, scouted his pro-day, and brought him in for a private meeting last week. More convincing though is who the Browns aren’t looking at.
The Browns have only shown interest in two defensive ends predicted to go outside of the first round: Arizona’s Brooks Reed and Miami’s Allen Bailey. The other ends: Bowers (bust potential) and J.J. Watt (limited pass rush).
Need: Top pass-rushing ends will be gone after the first, but tackles who can clog running lanes will be prevalent well into the draft. The Browns have zero starting ends on the roster.
Roth and Mitchell are unrestricted free agents, and Benard is a situational pass rusher. At tackle, the Browns at least have Rubin and Schaefering.
Heckert’s History: Heckert drafts smaller, quicker ends like Quinn. Bowers' game tape will eliminate him from consideration. Heckert (and even Holmgren) very rarely drafts first-round receivers.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Peterson – If the LSU star falls this far, his talent will trump the Browns’ direst need.
Dark Horse: A.J. Green – Despite talent, signs indicate the Browns won’t go receiver in the first (slide 5). Von Miller – They're apparently enamored, but he's a mismatch for the scheme.
False Call: Julio Jones – Heckert is not a combine-hero enthusiast.
Round 2, Pick 37: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Why: If Smith is available, expect the Browns to grab him to start alongside Haden. Smith is an athletic player with solid instincts and a physical presence. He especially excels in man-to-man coverage, and with some work on technique could develop into a true shut-down corner.
Scouting: The Browns attended Smith’s pro day. He'll reportedly be visiting the Browns soon. The repeat visits indicate a strong interest. No position has been scouted by the Browns more than cornerback, and because most visiting corners are projected second and third rounders, it is clear when the Browns are thinking of pulling that trigger.
Need: Tendering Wright and keeping Brown at CB, it seemed that the Browns would wait to draft another CB. However, Holmgren ranks CB as the second biggest team need.
Even if Wright bounces back next year, the depth at the position is frightfully thin. Needless to say, Smith is a great conciliatory prize should the Browns not get a chance at Peterson in the first.
Heckert’s History: By drafting Haden and Ward while bringing in Brown last year, it is clear Heckert likes physical, hard-hitting defensive backs. At 6’2”, 211 pounds, Smith can battle opposing receivers. Plus, he’s shown sure tackling and excels in run support.
Honorable Mentions: Marvin Austin and Stephen Paea – With first-round talent, it will be hard to pass on these options for shoring up the defensive line.
Dark Horse: Brooks Reed – Should the Browns not go Quinn in the first, they may pull another T.J. Ward in the second: “Experts” call it a reach until he starts sacking quarterbacks.
False Calls: Leonard Hankerson and John Baldwin – When Heckert drafts receivers, remember this motto: Speed not size… Speed not size… Speed not size…
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Round 3, Pick 70: Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
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Scouting: Besides A.J. Green and Julio Jones (due diligence), the Browns have not invited another top-notch WR to a private workout. The list of WRs that the Browns have met with includes: Jerrel Jernigan (2nd-3rd), Edmund Gates (3rd), Greg Salas (3rd-4th), Cecil Short III (3rd-7th), and Courtney Smith (7th).
Bottom line: If a team is using its 30 limited private workouts to meet with a group of wide receivers in a certain cluster of rounds, that should be a tip about their plans.
Why: You better believe the Browns want burner Jerrel Jernigan here, but he won't be available past the 2nd. If he's close, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Heckert move up and take him. However, because I said no trade contemplation, the Browns pick Edmund Gates.
Gates is no slouch himself, with recorded 40 times in the 4.3’s. He has serious playmaking ability and the agility and body control to get yards after the catch. Gates would seriously elevate both the Browns’ vertical and horizontal passing game.
Need: Simply put, the Browns’ front office does not share the same opinion of their receivers as fans. They expect Carlton Mitchell to be a featured receiver, Cribbs to be dangerous working out of the slot, and that adding a speedy threat like Gates will be enough to open up the short routes for Massoquoi or Robiskie.
Heckert’s History: …Speed not size… Speed not size… Speed not size… Heckert has never drafted for that prototypical #1 receiver mold.
Honorable Mention: Shane Vereen – The third-round prospect was brought in for a private workout, but with Hillis and Hardesty it’s hard to see them picking RB this high.
Dark Horse: Chris Conte – The Browns were very high on the safety after visiting his pro day.
False Call: Kyle Rudolph – Okay, there is no way Rudolph falls this far, but it had to be addressed. Anyone speculating the Browns will take a tight end early clearly doesn’t watch the Browns. With Watson and Moore, they’re set.
Round 4, Pick 101: Roy Helu Jr., RB, Nebraska
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Why: Helu had a solid career in Nebraska. He has the speed to take it to the house when he reaches the second level, and his soft hands make him a receiving option as a WCO back.
Scouting: The Browns have brought in only two backs for private workouts (Vereen and Murray), and both will be off the board earlier than the fourth. The Browns scouted Helu during his senior bowl week, and were present for his solid combine performance.
Need: Hillis’ disappearance at the end of the year. Hardesty’s lingering injury concerns. The Browns won’t wait too much longer to address the position.
Heckert’s History: Heckert actually has a strong tendency to select running backs in the third round, but I think the need for receiver will make him wait one more round. I’m going to hedge that with one small caveat*.
Honorable Mention: Sione Fua – The Browns showed considerable interest in the defensive tackle at the senior bowl. They need as much help as they can get on the line.
Dark Horse*: Cecil Shorts III – The Browns were the only team to scout this speedster receiver’s pro day. They may go Vereen in the third if they think Shorts will be there in the fourth.
False Call: Casey Matthews – Paid some interest during Senior Bowl, but Heckert will determine Matthew's being manhandled by offensive linemen during the game was only a preview of things to come.
Round 5, Pick 134: J.T. Thomas, LB, West Virginia
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Why: The 6'1", 241-pounder has drawn interest from several clubs, including the Browns, and is looking to be a draft-day riser. Last year he recorded 73 tackles, 7 tackles-for-losses, 2.5 sacks, 4 pass deflections, and 2 fumble recoveries. With those stats, the Browns could be picking up a late-round playmaker.
Scouting: The Browns were reported to have shown strong interest in Thomas by National Football Post’s Aaron Wilson. By my account, the Browns have reached their limit of 30 private workout invitations, so don’t expect the Browns to bring him in before the draft. If they are interested, then you can be sure Heckert is watching as much film as he can.
Need: Before injury, Fujita was on target to be the team’s defensive MVP. Gocong was quietly productive and really came on at the end of the year.
If D’Qwell Jackson returns healthy, the Browns could be better off at the position than many think. However, the Browns need to hedge their bets, and Thomas is a great plan B at Will linebacker.
Heckert’s History: Heckert has never particularly valued the linebacker position, and in the 4-3 it is significantly less important than linemen and defensive backs. However, Thomas shows the intensity, pursuit, and athleticism Heckert admires.
Honorable Mention: Pat Devlin – I know Holmgren is interested, but I think the Browns’ holes keep him from pulling rank this year.
Dark Horse: Greg Romeus – The Big East’s Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2009, Romeus is flying under the radar while rehabbing from 2010 injuries. He hasn’t been linked to the Browns, but Romeus has a high risk/reward value that may intrigue a team with few pass-rushing options at DE.
False Call: This late in the draft, every pick is speculation.
Round 6, Pick 163 (From Denver): Jah Reid, OT, Central Florida
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Why: Reid has the height (6’7”) and arm length (34 3/8”) to develop into a premier right tackle. He’s raw, but he already gets a good push in the run game.
He’ll have to work on his footwork and technique to improve his pass protection at the next level, but all reports are that he is a dedicated player and very coachable.
Scouting: Reid has been the only OT prospect interviewed by the Browns who is not an early-round projection. Since the Browns are not in the market for a premier left tackle, he’s the only one who makes sense.
Need: The Browns’ front office seems pretty content with Pashos as starting RT. But his injury concerns and the limited depth make this a position they have to address this year. Reid is a perfect late-round selection: he’s a project but has a very high ceiling that could pay off in the long run.
Heckert’s History: With a late-round selection, I think Reid has the intangibles Heckert tends to target: a passion for the game, demonstrated improvement over his career, and a lot of athletic ability.
Round 6, Pick 165: Brian Lainhart, FS, Kent State University
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Why: Lainhart may come from a small school out of the MAC, but for a team that signed one alum (Josh Cribbs) and regularly matches up against another (James Harrison), you can bet the Browns have their eye on this diamond in the rough.
Lainhart is a turnover machine. During his career at KSU, he recorded 17 interceptions and 9 forced fumbles. But he’s not just a ball hawk; the 6’1”, 211 lb. safety recorded 349 total tackles in his four years.
Scouting: The Browns scouted Lainhart at KSU’s pro day. Lainhart wasn’t invited to the NFL combine, but that doesn’t mean the Browns can count on him being available as an undrafted free agent. Nine other area clubs also took the opportunity to check out his pro day, including all division rivals.
Need: Unlike other free agents, there were no reports of the Browns tendering Abe Elam before the CBA expired. It’s always possible Sheldon Brown will eventually move to safety, but his age doesn’t make him a long-term solution either.
Finding a ball-hawking free safety late in the draft would allow Ward to move to his original NFL projection of strong safety and do what he does best: hit.
Heckert’s History: Good strength and instincts. What’s not to like?
Honorable Mention: Ryan Taylor – The North Carolina tight end has versatility, but can the Browns really be interested in that many players from former coach Butch Davis?
Round 7, Pick 247: Andrew Soucy, DT, Eastern Kentucky
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Why: Soucy has good late-round value and fits a large need. He has long arms and has a knack for knocking down passes at the line of scrimmage.
He has a good bull rush, plays with leverage, and is a non-stop motor kind of guy. He’d line up well along the line.
Scouting: Soucy has been brought in for a personal workout. To use one of 30 limited team interviews on a seventh-round prospect means the Browns are interested.
Need: Many will be surprised if the Browns actually wait this long to address the line again after the first.
Heckert's History: Find possible contributors where you can.
Honorable Mention: Courtney Smith – Not a burner, but he’s got good size and a strong work ethic. The Browns did bring him in for a personal workout and scout his pro day.
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