2011 NFL Draft: 20 Things That Could Happen and Shouldn't Surprise You
"Don't be surprised if..."
That's the famous prefix of anyone who covers the NFL Draft. It's almost an escape clause in-and-of itself. It gives you reason to believe in something, without giving you someone to blame if it doesn't happen.
Well, with 254 overall picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, you shouldn't be surprised if a very high number of things surprise you...definitely more than 20. So here's just a taste.
Someone Other Than Cam Newton Goes First Overall
1 of 20
For weeks we've heard that Cam Newton will be the first-overall pick to the Carolina Panthers. It would make sense, if only because seven of the past nine first-overall picks have been quarterbacks.
Newton perfectly fits the bill of a first-overall quarterback, too: High production in college (albeit for one year), great physical tools and a few question marks clouding the overall safety of the pick.
There are a few other guys who could justifiably be taken at that spot. Two names that immediately come to mind are Marcell Dareus and Patrick Peterson, both of whom are considered the top two prospects in this draft. It would make perfect sense for the Panthers to draft Newton first overall, but either of these guys would make just as much sense for a team that has almost as many needs as positions on the roster.
Da'Quan Bowers Slips out of the Top 20
2 of 20
Just under two months ago, anyone with half a brain and two cents to add to a conversation on the draft would have called me an idiot for saying this.
After a lackluster pro day, arguably due to arthroscopic surgery on his knee, and with big question marks surrounding just one productive year in college, Bowers' draft stock is plummeting like a meteor toward Earth.
There are far too many questions about Bowers to make him a safe pick in the top 10, and there are safer value picks at his position available in the middle of the first round. That could spell a huge drop for Bowers.
The Browns Pass on A.J. Green
3 of 20
I haven't read more than a handful of mock drafts on the internet that have someone besides Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green going to the Cleveland Browns sixth overall.
The pick makes perfect sense, when you consider that the Browns lack a top wide receiver to help Colt McCoy mature into the franchise quarterback the Browns clearly want him to become.
What the pick would ignore, though, is value. Several times I have seen mock drafts pick Green with Patrick Peterson still available on the board. If the Browns are able to land a second shutdown corner to put opposite last year's first-round pick, Joe Haden, why would they pass on that? The NFL has become so pass happy, it would almost be beyond reason to pass on Peterson for Green.
.png?w=256)
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Patriots Trade Down
4 of 20
Duh.
Predicting the Patriots on draft day is almost more difficult than solving a Rubix cube. They love to move up and down the board, picking up additional later picks or future picks while still getting the player they target.
They did the same thing last year, trading down from No. 22 not once but twice, while still landing Devin McCourty at pick No. 27. The pick ended up being one of the best in the entire draft, as McCourty reeled in seven interceptions and finished second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
The Fans Boo the First Overall Pick
5 of 20
This seems to happen every single year. Why do New Yorkers have to be so rude?
Whether it's deserved (see Russell, Jamarcus) or not (see Bradford, Sam), New Yorkers seem to get a kick out of ruining the one moment every NFL hopeful has waited their entire life for.
And they'll probably do it again in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised.
Julio Jones Gets Drafted Before A.J. Green
6 of 20
A dominant performance at the NFL Scouting Combine such as the one Julio Jones had is often rewarded with a high pick in the draft. That will bode especially true for Jones, whose numbers were all posted on a fractured foot.
Unlike with most prospects that suffer an injury, though, there are minimal concerns about his recovery from surgery. With the performance he put up on that fractured foot, why should there be?
A.J. Green has long been seen as the better prospect, but with Jones' stock on the rise, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he were taken first.
Mark Ingram Slips out of the First Round
7 of 20
Yes, it seems the value of a franchise running back is slowly but surely declining. Many teams have gotten by, and even gotten it done, with talent found in the back end of the draft or even on the undrafted free-agent market. Among those teams are the New England Patriots, which ranked ninth in the league in rushing with two undrafted free agent running backs.
Their value is diminished mostly due to the severe beating the running back position takes. They are getting hit hard every time they touch the ball. The idea of a multiple-player backfield rotating based on strengths and weaknesses is a growing trend in the NFL, and Mark Ingram could see the drawbacks of that fact.
No Punters Are Drafted
8 of 20
I've heard several pundits comment that there just isn't any talent at punter in this year's draft. At least, not any talent worth using a pick on. Some team will scour the undrafted free-agent market for a punter if they need a young guy to groom, but no one will spend a pick.
Andy Dalton Goes in the First Round
9 of 20
This year's crop of quarterbacks is very difficult to project. Nearly none of them have ever played in a pro-style offense.
That being said, we've seen this before, with Joe Flacco and Josh Freeman both going in the first round as projected second-rounders. The need for quarterbacks is always at a premium.
There are several teams that could trade up into the back end of the first round for a shot at Dalton if they rate him high enough, and there's even talk that the Colts could be looking for the torchbearer after Manning at pick No. 22.
With that, no one should be surprised if he gets drafted in the first round.
Six or More Offensive Linemen Get Drafted in the First Round
10 of 20
Over the past three years, 20 of the total 96 first-round selections have been offensive linemen. That averages out to over 20 percent, or just under seven out of 32 on average.
Six seems like a safe bet, so you shouldn't be surprised.
Many teams see the value in taking one high, because the position typically translates well to the NFL (as long as you find a player with solid football intelligence). These players tend to contribute for a long time, as well, and also tend to be durable.
The New England Patriots Trade Down...Again
11 of 20
Really? Again? The Patriots have two first-round picks, and the first pick of the second round. That's just the type of ammunition Belichick loves to use...to load up on more ammunition for next year's draft.
Every year, Patriots fans are talking about which top prospects the team could have their eyes on. And every year, Bill Belichick trades out of their spot and usually down. It's his way of acquiring value for the player they want by getting them later, while also adding picks for future drafts.
The success of last year's Devin McCourty trade-down decision may just be more fuel to the trade-down fire that has kept Belichick's multiple-pick drafts rolling for so many years.
The Lockout Is a Big Topic of Discussion
12 of 20
These players have the unfortunate circumstance of heading into a league in flux. There's no certainty for football in 2011, so these players are at an immediate disadvantage. If they are unable to work out consistently and study the playbooks, they are more likely to fall to the wayside in the eyes of their respective teams.
What's more, the rookie wage scale will be tossed to the wayside for one more year.
Expect the pundits to talk about the many ways in which the lockout will impact the draft, draftees and the teams making the picks.
Which leads me to my next slide...
Teams Reach for a Player at a Position of Need
13 of 20
This happens every year, so it shouldn't surprise you at all if it happens again this year.
Still, with the uncertainty of the labor situation and the cloudiness of free agency happening after the draft, some teams will feel the pressure. There could be more than one team that cracks and goes after a guy they have their heart set on a bit earlier than they should.
Some teams may even treat the draft like free agency, mortgaging whatever they have to target the one player they want more than any other.
You can pretty much throw out the mock drafts starting April 28.
The 49ers Trade Up for Blaine Gabbert
14 of 20
The Alex Smith era should have been over a long time ago. With a new head coach in town, it might finally be. With a new head coach often comes a new offensive philosophy, often one that doesn't fit the old quarterback's style of play.
The Bengals are seen as a potential landing spot for Blaine Gabbert. If the 49ers are convinced that Cincinnati will pull the trigger, they might make the jump from No. 7 to No. 3 for their quarterback of the future.
While it may be worthwhile to keep Alex Smith around and wait until next year to get a quarterback, it would make more sense for them to trade up if they view Gabbert as their guy for the future. That's not an opportunity any team should pass on.
More Than One Draft Day Invite Free Falls
15 of 20
We see it just about every year. We watch as a draft-day hopeful stirs in his seat, waiting for his name to be called. We can't help but feel bad for the guy, even if he's going to make millions regardless of where or when he's drafted (because it will likely be in the first round anyway).
There will be at least one of those this year. With a few top-heavy positions, the stage is set for a couple of runs on a certain position. Of course, I've been over a couple of the possibilities (Da'Quan Bowers and Mark Ingram, to name a couple). With a handful of other prospects that have severe question marks, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we're talking about at least a couple of players falling down the boards.
The Raiders Find a Way to Draft Demarcus Van Dyke
16 of 20
The holder of the fastest 40-yard dash time at the NFL Scouting Combine has seemingly been a prerequisite to being one of the Oakland Raiders draft picks. This year, Demarcus Van Dyke's 4.28-second 40-yard dash makes him the "winner" of a five-year stay in the Black Hole!
He's projected as a second or third-round pick, and the Raiders happen to have a pick in each of those rounds. The Raiders will likely find a way to draft him, and if it doesn't look like he's going to fall to them, I wouldn't be surprised if they trade up to get him.
Al Davis is simply that obsessed with speed.
Roger Goodell Gives an Impromptu CBA Speech Pre-Draft
17 of 20
The war in the media between the players and the owners has waged on for months, even years, leading up to now. The players have done a great job of winning the favor of the fans in the dispute of millionaires vs. billionaires.
I get the feeling Roger Goodell will give one last-ditch effort to curry favor with the fans. The prime-time setting of the first round of the draft gives him the perfect platform to speak his piece on the situation.
I wouldn't expect him to sway many fans, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he tries.
Mike Pouncey Isn't Drafted No. 9 by the Cowboys
18 of 20
Over the past few days, reports have started swirling around the net that Mike Pouncey thinks he'll be drafted by the Cowboys at the ninth overall pick. To say that would be a rather rich pick would be a huge understatement.
There are two camps: Those that believe Pouncey is a mid-round prospect and those that believe he's a second-round prospect that someone will reach on in the first round.
A lot of the hype (and it certainly is hype) surrounding Pouncey is based more on his name than on any body of work he assembled last year at Florida. I don't see (m)any predicting him to be a top 10 selection, and it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if he's not taken there.
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay Disagree...A Lot
19 of 20
Is it just me, or does it seem as though ESPN hired Todd McShay simply to generate a ton of arguments?
Every year, the two argue ad nauseum over the prospects in the draft, talking about which ones are good fits in certain systems, which quarterbacks are the best in the draft, and things of that nature.
It's good for ratings, but if you haven't learned to wash out your ears after listening to these guys by now, it's probably an option you should explore. They are knowledgeable of the prospects, but for them to act as if they know what's best for each NFL franchise is kind of ridiculous. Of course, they do know better than some GMs (see Davis, Al) but I can't help but roll my eyes when they criticize others (see Belichick, Bill).
More Than One Team Will Surprise You
20 of 20
This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable drafts in years. Usually at this point, there are at least a couple of solid locks at certain spots, but draft analysts are still drawing at straws trying to figure this one out.
It could have something to do with the lack of truly elite prospects in this year's draft.
There are always one or two picks that shake up the entire make up of the draft. Don't be surprised if this year is no different.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
