Toronto Maple Leafs: The Numbers Behind a Miracle Playoff Run, Part 2

Remember that fat lady that was ready to get up on stage?  Yeah, well she’s now in front of the microphone ready to belt out her tune, ending the Leafs’ season.

The Leafs have done their part by beating the Bruins in a shootout and then winning the battle of Ontario in regulation against the Senators.  The problem is that the rest of the league isn’t supporting the Leafs in their miracle run to the playoffs.  But for the Leafs and their fans, the dream isn’t over yet; so let’s take another look at what needs to happen in the final week of the season for playoff hockey to return to Toronto.

Montreal has officially put themselves out of the Leafs’ reach with a 3-1 win against the Devils.  So for all the Leafs’ fans that were dreaming of a final game matchup against the Canadiens with a playoff spot on the line, well it looks like that will remain a dream.

With three teams left within reach, the following numbers are all based on the assumption that the Leafs will win their next three games in regulation to finish the year with 90 points.  With games against Washington and Montreal at home and New Jersey on the road, winning out is no easy task; but it is an assumption that needs to be made.

The Rangers, with 89 points, need to go 0-2-1, as the Leafs would hold the tiebreak at 90 points. (35 regulation & overtime wins opposed to the Rangers’ 33).  The Rangers play their remaining three games at home against Boston, Atlanta and New Jersey.  With none of the teams having anything to play for, (the Bruins have the Northeast locked up while the Thrashers and Devils are mathematically eliminated) it’s tough to see the Rangers losing all three.  Score update: Golf - 1, Hockey - 0

After Buffalo’s overtime win against Carolina, they currently find themselves holding onto the seventh seed with 90 points.  In order to hold the tiebreak with Buffalo, the Leafs need to win their final three games in regulation while the Sabres need to lose in regulation to the Lightning, Flyers and Blue Jackets.  Not impossible, but even with Ryan Miller out, the Sabres have found ways to win and there’s no evidence that that’ll change.  Score update: Golf - 2, Hockey - 0

So let’s say the unlikely happens and either the Rangers or the Sabres lay an egg for their remaining three games; the Leafs still need to leapfrog Carolina.  This means that the Hurricanes need to go 1-1-1, at best, over their last three games.  With Detroit and Tampa Bay at home and Atlanta on the road, it isn’t the easiest of schedules for the Canes.  Score update: Golf - 2, Hockey - 1.  But even if Carolina does lose out, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Buffalo and New York will.  Final score: Golf - 3, Hockey - 1.

Either way, the formula doesn’t change: the Leafs need to focus on winning out and then hope that they can finally get some help from other teams around the league.  More specifically the Thrashers and the Lightning.  Tampa will be playing with a fire considering they still have a shot at home-ice advantage, but it’s Atlanta that has nothing to play for.  A spiraling team with nothing to play for; not exactly the team that the Leafs would like to rely on for their playoff hopes.  Regardless, for Leafs’ fans, this final week of the season will involve a lot of scoreboard watching and cheering for teams they never thought they’d be cheering for.