Who To Start, Who To Sit–Week 5

Quarterbacks

Start:  Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks. Since winning the Super Bowl, it seems that there is a new quarterback in New York, and it’s not Brett Favre.  Coming off their bye, the Giants will be playing the Seattle Seahawks, and that is good news for Eli Manning owners.  In two career games against the Seahawks, Manning has thrown for 619 yards and five touchdowns.  Eli is also at his best in the month of October, as he has thrown 20 touchdowns in just 12 games, and has averaged almost 200 yards a game over his career.  Look for his strong season to continue with 250 yards and two touchdown passes, even with Plaxico Burress suspended for the game.

Start:  Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers vs. Kansas City Chiefs. With his main man Steve Smith back in the lineup, Delhomme had his best game of the season by far, and threw his first touchdowns since Week 1.  The Chiefs have actually been stronger than expected against the pass, but the Broncos were able to put up good stats against them in Week 4.  The emergence of rookie Johnathan Stewart is helping to open up the passing game in Carolina as well.  Look for the Delhomme/Smith connection to find each other plenty of times this weekend, and Delhomme should have 275 yards and two touchdowns and the Panthers will win.

Sit:  Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals. There are three reasons that I think that Edwards might not be a great play this week.  First, the Cardinals defense has only allowed 204 yards passing per game so far this season.  The second reason is that the 4-0 Bills are due to have a bad game.  They are a decent team, but they aren’t an undefeated type of team, and they have always been a run first offense.  The third one is where I might lose some of you, but I feel very strong about this one.  The Cardinals’ pass defense was just embarrassed by Brett Favre and the Jets for six touchdowns.   If you don’t think they are making major adjustments so that doesn’t happen again this week, you are crazy.  Look for a much better week from teh Cardinals’ defensive backfield in Week 5.

Sit:  Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Campbell, after a horrible first week, really looks like he has a good grip on the new offense, and has had three straight good games.  However, first he isn’t this good.  He isn’t a 285 yard, two touchdown kind of quarterback.  He is more of a 190 yard and one score kind of guy.  Not to mention that the Eagles have one of the best defenses in football, and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will be mixing up the plays so Campbell never gets comfortable.  I would be shocked if he passed 190 yards and one touchdown.

Running Backs

Start:  Steve Slaton, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts. Slaton has had two good games since he has been named the starter in Houston, although they were quite different.  His first game, against the tough Titans, he rushed for 116 yards, while in Week 4 against the tough Jags, he caught eight passes and scored another touchdown.  It looks like Slaton can beat you in a number of different ways, and is having an impact on a Texans team that could use an offensive burst.  The Colts have allowed almost 200 yards a game on the ground, and Slaton will have another good one, whether it is on the ground or through the air.

Start:  Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos. Outside of one game against the Bears, Graham has picked up exactly where he left off in 2007.  Unlike Ryan Grant in Green Bay, Graham is following up his breakout campaign with another strong season in which he is nine yards short of three 100 yard games.  Denver just got torched for nearly 200 yards against the Chiefs and Larry Johnson in Week 4, and they allow over 130 yards a game on the ground.  The Bucs offense has been really rolling this season, so look for Graham to have another 100 yard game, and find paydirt again.

Sit:  Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens. Now he didn’t seem like a good play against the stout Vikings run defense in Week 4, but Johnson had a great game, scoring twice.  It gets no easier for the Titans’ rookie this week against the physical Ravens defense.  The Steelers nearly had to use coach Mike Tomlin out of the backfield the way the Ravens were injuring running backs on Monday night.  Given the fact that Kerry Collins doesn’t threaten anyone with his arm, look for the Ravens to focus on stopping Johnson, and he should have his worst game as a pro.

Sit:  Chris Perry, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has been allowing just about 100 yards per game on the ground, but I don’t see this as a strong matchup for Perry.  In three of the four games he has been average or worse, and has barely broken 200 yards for the season so far.  If Carson Palmer doesn’t play again, you can expect the Cowboys to stack the box with as many guys as they can.  If Palmer is back, Perry still will struggle to break 50 rushing yards, and I don’t see him getting in the endzone either.

Wide Receivers

Start:  Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers passing game has been a little disappointing, but look for a good game in Week 5.  They face the Jaguars, who have only been middle of the road in terms of pass defense, and their big play threat in Holmes has always played well on the road.  In his nine career games on the road, Holmes has averaged over seven catches per game, and has scored eight times over that span.  He showed a little sign of life on Monday against a tough Ravens defense, so hopefully this is the turnaround.  Look for Holmes to have a strong game with six catches for 113 yards and a score.

Start:  Steve Smith, New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks. This might be a bit of a surprise to some, but there are a couple of reasons that Smith should be a great play in Week 5.  The Seahawks are among the bottom third of the league in pass defense this year, and their games included the Rams and Niners.  Smith became a bigger part of the Giants attack in Week 3.  After back to back games of only two catches, Smith hauled in seven in the G-Men last game.  Now, Plaxico Burress is suspended for this upcoming game, meaning Smith should get a lot of looks from Eli Manning on Sunday.  Expect Smith to have 8-10 catches, over 100 yards and a touchdown.

Sit:  Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Jones has been the one bright spot in the passing game for Jacksonville, and although that isn’t saying much, he has put together a solid season.  Jones has had five or more catches in each of the first four games, and found the end zone for the first time in Week 4.  Pittsburgh has been allowing under 170 yards through the air in the first four games of the season, and they should be able to shut down a below average passer like David Garrard.  Jones should have only three catches this week for 34 yards, and I would be surprised if he scored again.

Sit:  Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers. With Larry Johnson finally running the ball with some consistency again, it has been opening up the passing game in small doses even though the quarterbacks are awful.  Bowe has been pretty solid for an offensively challenged team, and hasn’t had less than four catches in any game so far, and has two touchdowns.  Carolina is in the top ten in passing defense, and with limited other options to cover, look for them to try to take Bowe out of the game.  I bet he matches his season low with only four catches for 42 yards.

Tight End

Start:  Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have been among the worst defensive teams against the pass early in the season, and although Miami isn’t a high powered offense, I believe because they have Chad Pennington that Fasano will have a good game.  Pennington’s lack of arm strength is well documented, and the offense that he has run for most of his career really features the tight end.  Fasano has 11 catches in the two games that he has played, and I think you can look for him to have another six catches or so for 75 yards and hopefully a touchdown.

Sit:  Owen Daniels, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have allowed under 150 yards a game through the air, and going against a less than explosive Texans offense, the chance is there for Houston to have a tough game.  Even without Bob Sanders, I still see Daniels having three to four catches for about 36 yards and no scores.

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