The Lake Woebegone Conference: What If Alabama Is Just Above Average?

With the last two conference champions going on to win the national title, and projections of a legendary "speed" advantage that will continue to pay dividends to conference members for generations to come, the conventional wisdom has at least one SEC team playing for a crystal trophy in January.

But just as the nation's financial markets are working their way through turbulence caused by overvalued real estate, there are reasons to wonder whether the football properties in the SEC are experiencing a serious asset bubble of their own.

Not even halfway through the season, eight of the 12 SEC teams have already made an appearance in the Associated Press' top 25. Only Mississippi, Mississippi St., Arkansas, and Kentucky have yet to be ranked.

The pollsters' irrational exuberance has already led both Tennessee and South Carolina to default on their top 25 mortgages. The Vols (now 1-3) got dumped in week one by UCLA (now also 1-3.) South Carolina's brief appearance in the poll came to a crashing halt when it ran into the Pit Yorkies of Vanderbilt.

And that was just the first two weeks of the season. On the momentum of beating South Carolina, Vandy has inched its way up to No. 21 in the present poll. With their last winning season coming shortly after President Reagan's first, the question of foreclosure on the Pit Yorkies is probably a matter of "when" rather than "if."

But no matter, the pollsters have more easy credit to lend. Kentucky is still unbeaten and knocking on the door. Ole Miss, at 3-2, has a fresh Gator hide hanging on the wall. In a conference where fortunes are made and lost in an eyeblink, they're both just one upset away from the spotlight.

If they pull it off, that would make them the ninth and 10th SEC teams to crack the top 25 this season.

Yet prices at the top of this market are soft. Last week, three of the top five teams were from the SEC. The two highest—No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Florida—were severely exposed as something well short of championship-ready teams. No. 5 LSU even had some headaches in the first half against Mississippi State.

Defenders of SEC supremacy will doubtless suggest that this just proves how tough the conference really is. But Tennessee's collapse against UCLA isn't the only evidence of trouble in non-conference games.

Before beating No. 4 Florida, Ole Miss lost to Wake Forest, which lost to Navy.

Alabama, now the No. 2 team in the nation, allowed four sacks, put up just 172 yards and scored only a single offensive touchdown against Tulane during week two—a game 'Bama won 20-6. Alabama's defense, now considered world beaters, gave up 318 yards to the Tulane offense that day.

That's Alabama playing a Conference USA team that hasn't had a winning season since 2002 and who gave hapless Army one of its few wins last year.

Substitute No. 6 Penn State for No. 2 Alabama in the above paragraph, and just wait for the howls of "overrated" to bellow up from Dixie.

And what of Alabama?

Nick Saban is a terrific coach. It does not surprise me that he has Alabama looking again like a consistent winner after just two seasons. In his only other college coaching stops, he had the Michigan State and LSU ships sailing off in good directions after just a couple of seasons as well.

But ask yourself one question: Should it be happening this fast?

If Alabama really is already the second-best team in the nation and the best team in the SEC, then this shreds the argument for SEC superiority.

If one man—even one of the nation's very best coaches—can assume control of a dysfunctional (though storied) program and then smash the best that the conference has to offer after less than two years on the job, then the biggest part of this story is being missed.

The last two national champions are from the SEC. The coaches of Florida, LSU, Auburn, and South Carolina have all won national championships and/or had perfect seasons.

Saban took over a 6-7 team and has had just two recruiting classes, presumably not enough time to fill up his team with the southern talent that his conference rivals have been stockpiling for years.

And yet, here we are. Alabama has wiped the floor with Georgia, the "conventional wisdom" pick to win the conference title. Even plucky little Tulane did a better job of holding back the Tide.

So what gives?

I think the championship credit of the SEC is drying up, at least for this season. Alabama's on its way to being one of the best teams, but it isn't there yet. The shocking early success of the Crimson Tide shows that the conference is declining as much as it shows that 'Bama is on the rise.

If I'm right, then Georgia probably isn't as bad as it looked against 'Bama, the Ole Miss win over Florida may not be a fluke, Vandy probably has enough wins left in them to go bowling, and even South Carolina and Tennessee have "upsets" left to put on the board.

Florida State was 7-4 in 2005 when it upset Virginia Tech in the ACC title game and went to the Orange Bowl. Pitt won the Big East title with an 8-3 record the year before. Weird parity has infected nearly every BCS conference since then, causing the ascendance of Rutgers, Missouri, Wake Forest, Kansas, and Illinois to the top of the polls.

The SEC is overdue for such a crash, and the quick rise of Alabama may be the signal that the meltdown is upon us.

If so, then the rest of the season will be a "War of All Against All," where perhaps eight of the 12 conference teams stay in contention for the title nearly all season long, but at the cost of three or more losses on the balance sheets of all involved.

In the conference where every team is above average, the quest for a third straight BCS title appearance may be in ruins by early November.