College Football Rankings 2011: Predicting the Top 25 Based on Returning Talent
A lot of attention is payed to recruiting classes and underclassmen, but those are such uncertain variables. It would be much simpler if a top 25 was created based solely on returning talent. That is exactly what I set out to with this article, create a top 25 list that is simple.
I will rank the college football preseason top 25 for next season based only on the teams' returning talent.
As always, let me know your comments (positive or negative).
All of my information regarding statistics and departures came from nationalchamps.net.
25. TCU
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The losses are heavy for the Horned Frogs, and TCU will need to find new players to step up in 2011.
Quarterback Andy Dalton is gone, as is speedster wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. Running back Ed Wesley is the big holdover from 2010, and head coach Gary Patterson will certainly rely heavily on Wesley early in the season.
The linebackers are the most talented aspect of the defense. Tank Carder and Tanner Brock were all conference selections last season and figure to operate at a very high level in the fall.
With only 10 starters, returning life might be a little rough on TCU in the beginning of the season, but the Horned Frogs should improve as the season wears on.
24. Wisconsin
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Only 11 starters return from the 2010 Badger team, but running backs James White and Montee Ball are back, and that is good enough to bet Wisconsin on this list.
Only five starters return for Wisconsin on offense in 2011. The Badger offense will take a definite step back in 2011 with the loss of quarterback Scott Tolzien, tight end Lance Kendricks and wide receiver David Gilreath. The return of Ball and White, along with wide receiver Nick Toon, should soften the losses, though. Finding a replacement for Tolzien at quarterback will be the number one concern on offense.
On defense, Wisconsin will benefit from the return of all Big Ten players cornerback Antonio Fenelus and free safety Aaron Henry. All in all, six starters return for Wisconsin defensively in 2011. The defensive secondary should be the strong suit for the defense early on, as there is definite talent and experience back there.
Wisconsin may not go to the Rose Bowl again next season, but the Badgers should be able to stay in the upper echelon of the Big Ten standings.
23. Georgia
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Georgia returns seven starters on offense, including quarterback Aaron Murray, wide receiver Tavarres King and tight end Orson Charles Jr. Running back Washaun Ealey is currently in Head Coach Mark Richt’s doghouse, and his status is uncertain for next season. The key question will be whether Georgia can play at a high level without A.J. Green at wide receiver.
The Bulldogs bring back eight players on defense, but linebacker Justin Houston must be replaced. Defensive end Abry Jones and linebacker Christian Roberson should be able to help take some of the sting out of Houston’s departure though.
This Georgia team is young, but there is definitely still talent on this team, and these returning veterans should play well next season.
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22. Mississippi State
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Dan Mullen is definitely building something in Starkville, and if you weren’t convinced by the Bulldogs beatdown of Michigan in the Gator Bowl, then the Bulldogs will surely make a believer of you in 2011.
Quarterback Chris Relf is back under center for Mississippi State and will be throwing to wide receivers Chad Smith and Chris Bumpus. Eight starters return offensively for a Bulldogs squad that will attack with their veteran skill players and also rely on a strong defense.
Speaking of that defense, seven starters return from a unit that ranked 21st in the country in points allowed last season. The one question is the linebackers; the entire line backing core needs to be replaced and new players will have to step up for MSU. Devin Jones, James Carmen and Nick Bell all return for a defensive line that should be the strong point of the Bulldog defense.
Mississippi State will be a tough out in 2011 and has the returning talent to really make some noise in the SEC West.
21. Michigan
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Denard Robinson is back at quarterback, which immediately gives the Wolverines all kinds of credibility. Throw in the fact that wide receivers Roy Roundtree and Daryl Stonum will also be back in the fold next season as pass catching options for Robinson. Running back Vincent Smith also returns in 2011 after rushing for 601 yards last season.
On defense, Michigan returns eight starters from a 2010 unit that was, to put it nicely, “defensively challenged”. The defensive unit as a whole will need to show improvement and pull their weight during games in 2011.
The pieces are there for Michigan to have a strong debut season for new Head Coach Brady Hoke, but the Wolverines will have to put it all together on the field first.
20. Texas
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After a stunningly bad season in 2010, Mack Brown and the Longhorns look to reload in 2011.
The Longhorns return seven starters on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball and figure to be much improved next season.
Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is back under center after taking some lumps during his sophomore campaign. Running back Fozzy Whitaker is back to help out Gilbert as he navigates his second full season starting under center. The offense will have to deal with the losses of wide receivers John Chiles and James Kirkendoll.
Defensively, Texas also brings back an ample amount of talent. Linebacker figures to be the strong suit of the Texas defense. Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson are both all Big 12 performers and will pace Texas defensively next season.
You can never keep programs such as Texas down for very long, and the Longhorns have the returning talent to once again compete at a high level in the Big 12 conference.
19. Nebraska
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The Huskers ended the season on a sour note last season, but Nebraska will have the talent to compete in 2011 nonetheless.
Nebraska returns 13 starters from last season, including quarterback Taylor Martinez, running back Rex Burkhead and wide receiver Brandon Kinnie.
Defensively, Nebraska will field an experienced group in 2011 that will be highlighted by defensive tackle Jared Crick. Star cornerback Prince Amukamara is gone, and the Huskers will need to plug the hole left by him in the defensive secondary.
Offense should be the focus as Nebraska makes its transition into the Big 10, with quarterback Taylor Martinez hoping to build off his strong freshman campaign.
18. Auburn
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Do it all Heisman trophy winner Cam Newton is departed as is Nick Fairley, but there is still a lot to like about Auburn in 2011.
Running backs Mike Dyer and Ontario McCalebb are back in 2011 and should take pressure off of Newton’s replacement. Wide receivers Emory Blake and Quindarius Carr return as well to make sure the offense won’t fall too far. The one major question for the Tigers is an offensive line that loses all four starters.
Auburn returns four starters on defense, including cornerback Neiko Thorpe. Thorpe will be one of the few defensive holdovers from last year’s national title team, though, and we will have to wait and see how the underclassmen perform in their new roles.
17. Arizona State
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Head Coach Dennis Erickson’s club could have a breakout season next season in 2011.
The Sun Devils return 19 starters from a pesky 6-6 club in 2010. The one returning player that everyone has their eye on is quarterback Brock Osweiler, who threw for over 600 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions during his final two games as a starter last year. Running back Cameron Marshall also ran for 787 yards last season as a sophomore and looks like a keeper for ASU. Arizona State hasn’t been a football juggernaut as of late, but you can see why Sun Devil fans are excited about the future in Tempe.
16. Missouri
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Quarterback Blaine Gabbert and defensive end Aldon Smith are gone, but there is still plenty of firepower to go around in Columbia.
Missouri returns nine starters on offense and appears to still have more than enough talent leftover to be explosive in 2011. Wide receiver T.J. Moe and tight end Tyler Agnew were all Big 12 selections last season and return to help Mizzou break in their new quarterback.
Six starters return on defense, but the secondary will be new for the most part next season. Defensive ends Jacquies Smith and Brad Madison should pace the Tigers defense up front.
Head Coach Gary Pinkel still has more than enough talent leftover to stay competitive in the Big 12, and Missouri’s 15 returning starters should ensure that the Tigers don’t fall too far.
15. USC
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USC brings back 14 starters from a team that played well under first year Head Coach Lane Kiffin in 2010, and despite the bowl ban, the Trojans should continue their winning ways in 2011.
Quarterback Matt Barkley returns to lead the offense along with running backs Marc Tyler and Dillon Baxter. Wide receiver Robert Woods also provides USC with a talented wide out for Barkley to target.
On defense, USC brings back seven starters from 2010 and look to lean on their linebackers early in the season. Linebacker Chris Galippo and free safety T.J. McDonald are arguably the two top talents on defense for USC.
Many people will immediately dismiss USC because of the bowl ban, but it can’t be questioned that the Trojans have top 25 talent on their roster.
14. Stanford
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I will get the obvious out of the way right away. Stanford still has quarterback Andrew Luck, and his presence alone gets the Cardinal on this list.
As a whole on offense, the Cardinal have pieces to replace, though, as only five starters return on offense. Luck’s top two receiving options in Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen are departed, and new wide outs will have to emerge. Running back Stepfan Taylor returns for Stanford, and his presence will help greatly in 2011.
Defensively Stanford only returns six starters, but linebacker Owen Marecic is gone, and his presence will be dearly missed. Most of the secondary returns for the Cardinal in 2011, and this should be a strong area for Stanford in 2011. Strong Safety Delano Howell was an all conference performer last year and figures to be the anchor of the Cardinal defense next season.
Andrew Luck is back, but this isn’t the same Stanford team that waxed Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last season. Stanford will have to find new personnel to replace their departed losses if they hope to contend for the Pac-10 crown in 2011.
13. Ohio State
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Quarterback Terrell Pryor, wide receiver Devier Posey and running back “Boom” Herron will all begin the season on the bench because of the infamous ”tattogate”.
Ohio State may struggle in their absence, but there is no denying the Buckeyes talent at full strength.
Along with the aforementioned skill players, Ohio State returns all conference center Mike Brewster to anchor the offensive line.
Defensively Ohio State will have to fill a number of holes, as they only return four starters on the defensive side of the ball. Ohio State fans will have a lot of new names to learn on defense, and we will have to see if the full production can be replaced.
As it pertains to this list, Ohio State gets knocked down a few pegs based on the fact that they really don’t have a lot of talent coming back. Only eight starters return from 2010, and it will be up to the newcomers to come in and put their stamp on the program.
12. Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech brings back a considerable amount of talent in 2011, beginning with the return of four offensive linemen. Wide receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale also return next season to help new quarterback Logan Thomas, who appears to be the heir apparent to Tyrod Taylor. Seven starters return for the Hokies next season from a unit that only gave up 20.6 points per game in 2010.
The veterans should pace the Hokies as they attempt to capture another ACC crown. All in all, Frank Beamer should still have plenty of talent to work with in Blacksburg next season.
11. Florida State
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The Seminoles played well in their first season under Head Coach Jimbo Fisher, and the talent is in place for more success in 2011.
Quarterback Christian Ponder is no longer with the offense, but Bert Reed, Taiwan Easterling and running back Jermaine Thomas are all still in the fold for the Noles. All together, eight seniors return for a Florida State offense that played well in 2010.
On defense, the Seminoles are lead by linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Xavier Rhodes. These two players will pace a Florida State defense that, just like the offense, also returns eight starters from last season.
A lot of Florida State’s success will depend on E.J. Manual’s progression into the quarterback role, but the returning talent is there for Florida State to win the ACC in 2011.
10. Michigan State
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The rushing duo of Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker return for head coach Mark Dantonio, and that bodes well for the Spartans.
In addition, quarterback Kirk Cousins returns on offense, along with the bulk of his wide receiving core.
Michigan State returns six starters on defense, but middle linebacker Greg Jones is now departed and a new leader will have to emerge defensively. The defensive line will most likely be the strongest aspect of the Spartan defense. Cornerback Johnny Adams and safety Trenton Richardson were all Big Ten performers in 2010 and should contribute in a big way in 2011.
Nobody will confuse Michigan State’s style of play with Oregon, but the Spartans have the talent to make noise in the new look Big 10 next season.
9. Boise State
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Seven starters apiece return on both sides of the ball for the Broncos in 2011. Quarterback Kellen Moore and running back Doug Martin will lead the charge offensively. Wide receiver will be a question mark, as both Austin Pettis and Titus Young need to be replaced.
On defense, Boise State will rely on their veteran defensive line and linebackers to create pressure and force turnovers. Cornerback Brandyn Thompson and safety Jeron Johnson are both departed members of the defensive secondary and will need to be replaced.
Boise State will once again try to break into the BCS party this coming season behind veterans such as Martin and Moore. Ultimately, the returning talent is definitely there for Boise to have another strong season.
8. Texas A&M
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Head Coach Mike Sherman finally broke through with the Aggies last season, and fans are already dreaming of bigger things in 2011.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill returns to lead the Aggie offense along with the running back duo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael (Michael is returning from a season ending injury).
Linebacker Von Miller needs to be replaced, but besides that, the majority of the defensive unit from 2010 is back.
If Tannehill can continue to play well and work within a system that involves Gray and Michael, then the Aggies should be fine on offense. The defense is experienced as well, and there is reason to be optimistic for next season.
Texas A&M will have heavy competition as they try to compete with Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State, but they certainly have the returning talent to have a big season in 2011.
7. Notre Dame
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Brian Kelly will have plenty of talent to work with in 2011, and as I said earlier, I’m not even figuring the recruits into the equation.
Quarterback Dayne Crist returns from injury to battle with Tommy Rees for the starting quarterback gig next fall. Whoever wins the job will have the benefit of throwing to wide receivers Theo Riddick and Michael Floyd. Armando Allen, Jr. is gone at running back, but Cierre Wood rushed for 603 yards last season and is a more than capable replacement. Tight end Kyle Rudolph’s importance can’t be understated, and Notre Dame will have to plug the hole left by Rudolph at tight end.
On defense, linebacker Manti Te’o returns and should serve as an anchor for an Irish unit the returns the bulk of the personnel from 2010. The defense ranked in the top 25 in points against last season, and even bigger marks are expected in 2011.
I know people get sick of hearing this every season, but 2011 might be a breakout year for Notre Dame.
6. Alabama
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Nick Saban will have to move on in 2011 without elite talents such as running back Mark Ingram, wide receiver Julio Jones and quarterback Greg McElroy.
Despite the loss of those players, there is still reason for optimism at 'Bama. Running back Trent Richardson is a future pro and is more than capable of handling the rushing duties. Wide receivers Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks are more than serviceable for whoever the next man under center will be at Alabama.
On defense, Alabama will have to replace defensive end Marcell Darius, but Darius is really the only major loss defensively that the Tide will have to deal with. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower is poised for a big season in 2011 and he figures to be the leader of this Alabama defense next season.
All in all, there is still plenty of talent left in the tank for Nick Saban to use in 2011, and the Crimson Tide should once again be right near the top of the SEC pecking order next season.
5. Oklahoma State
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Kendall Hunter needs to be replaced at running back, but Mike Gundy will still have plenty of firepower to work with on offense. Quarterback Brandon Weeden returns, along with big play wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Wide receiver Jeff Cooper and running back Joseph Randle both contributed as underclassmen last season and should take on increased roles next fall.
The Cowboys will have to fill more holes on the defensive side of the ball. Six starters are gone from the 2010 unit, but it’s still a manageable number for Oklahoma State, although the 26.4 points per game that the defensive gave up in 2010 could use some work regardless of which starters are returning.
Oklahoma State has climbed up the Big 12 pecking ladder over the course of the past couple seasons, and the Cowboys once again should be no slouches in 2011.
4. South Carolina
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The Gamecocks offensive trio of quarterback Stephen Garcia, running back Marcus Lattimore and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery returns. Wide receiver Tori Gurley did opt to leave school for the NFL Draft, and his presence would have created added depth within the wide receiving core for Spurrier.
On defense, South Carolina returns most of their unit, with the exception of two of their linebackers. The Gamecocks defense did give up 23.1 points per game last season, though, so there still is room for improvement.
South Carolina’s returning talent, particularly their offensive skill players, will make them one of the top contenders in the SEC East. The true question will be whether Carolina can improve enough to make a run at a National Championship appearance.
3. Oregon
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Oregon made it to the National Title game with their fast paced spread offense last season, but the Ducks will have to fill holes at a lot of key positions next season.
Of course, superstars such as running backs Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James return, along with quarterback Darron Thomas, but the supporting cast will be largely new for the most part.
Oregon loses three of their starting linemen as well as wide receivers Jeff Maehl and D.J. Davis. On defense, the Ducks will have a number of openings to fill as well, including the departures of linebackers Casey Mathews and Spencer Paysinger.
Oregon has the flash to make noise next season, but time will tell if they can fill their holes and truly be an elite level title contender next season.
2. LSU
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Quarterback Jordan Jefferson returns for the Tigers, although it’s unclear if he will actually start in 2011. Wide receiver Terrence Toliver and running back Stevan Ridley will have to be replaced for the Bayou Bengals, but there is talent waiting in the wings. Spencer Ware rushed the ball well in the Cotton Bowl, and Rueben Randle has the talent to step into the number one spot at receiver.
On defense, the Tigers have just a few losses, but all of them will leave gaping holes. Linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, defensive tackle Drave Nevis and most importantly, cornerback Patrick Peterson will all be moving onto the NFL next fall. It will be up to the coaching staff to find young talent to plug into those holes.
LSU still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but player such as Peterson and Toliver will still be missed nonetheless next season.
1. Oklahoma
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Oklahoma will have a minimal adjustment period when they begin the 2011 season.
Quarterback Landry Jones returns to throw to wide receivers Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills. Landry will also love the fact that all but one of his offensive linemen from last season are back in the fold for 2011. In a perfect Sooner world, DeMarco Murray would somehow be back for a fifth year of eligibility, but Roy Finch played well sparingly last season, gaining 398 yards, and should be a serviceable replacement for the departed Murray in 2011.
On defense, the Sooners will have to replace defensive end Jeremy Beal, but besides that, most of the main parts are back from the 2010 unit.
All in all, Oklahoma makes out the best in terms of returning the most talent from 2010 and will be a force to be reckoned with next fall.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
