March Madness 2011 Prediction: What Do Bubble Teams Need to Make the Big Dance?

With just four days to go until the field is selected for March Madness 2011, it’s time for the bubble teams to start sweating.

It goes without saying that these teams want the conference tournaments to be upset-free, and will be helped by other bubble teams losing.

For those who still have conference tourney games ahead, though, there’s still time to affect their own destiny. Here’s a look at what each school needs to do for itself to be confident that they’ll be called on Selection Sunday.

Georgia (RPI: 38)

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LEXINGTON, KY - JANUARY 29: Terrence Jones #3 of the Kentucky Wildcats shoots the ball while defended by Trey Thompkins #33 of the Georgia Bulldogs during the SEC game at Rupp Arena on January 29, 2011 in Lexington, Kentucky. Kentucky won 66-60. (Photo

20 wins is always a nice number to reach, and Georgia has done it against a tough schedule (36th in the country). After losing nine times against the RPI top 50, though, Georgia can’t feel too comfortable entering SEC tournament play.

If the Bulldogs somehow lose to Auburn today, they’re toast. A win over Auburn sets up a rematch with Alabama (who just beat the ‘Dawgs by eight in Tuscaloosa).

If Georgia can knock off the Tide, they should be headed to the big dance.

Memphis (RPI: 40)

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NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 07: Tarik Black #10 of the Memphis Tigers shoots the ball against Marcus Morris #22 of the Kansas Jayhawks during their game at the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on December 7, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Lah

Despite their enviable RPI position, the Tigers finished a disappointing fourth in a weak Conference USA field. A big road win at Gonzaga will help, and if regular-season champ UAB wins the conference tourney, Memphis’ season sweep over the Blazers will look that much better.

Still, if the Tigers don’t at least reach the finals of their conference tournament, it’s tough to see them getting into the NCAAs.

Boston College (RPI: 43)

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GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 11: Biko Paris #5 and Cortney Dunn #55 of the Boston College Eagles chase Mike Scott #32 of the University of Virginia Cavaliers in their first round game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on Ma

The Eagles have fared well against their closest competition for an NCAA berth, having won a combined three games over Virginia Tech and Clemson. They also beat a very good Texas A&M team early in the year.

B.C. starts the ACC tournament with a meeting with Wake Forest, whom they just beat by 16. Assuming they win that, they’ll take on Clemson in a meeting that should send the winner to the NCAAs.

Michigan State (RPI: 47)

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COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 15: Kalin Lucas #1 of the Michigan State Spartans controls the ball while playing the Ohio State Buckues on February 15, 2011 at Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Even with the Spartans’ exceptional strength of schedule (ninth overall), their 16-13 record doesn’t look like a safe at-large pick. Big wins over Wisconsin and Washington should improve their case, though.

A loss to Iowa today would drop Michigan State to 16-14 and probably finish them in the committee’s eyes. If they beat the Hawkeyes, they might squeak in, but would feel a lot safer with an upset of Ohio State in the next round.

Michigan (RPI: 55)

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INDIANAPOLIS - MARCH 12: Forward DeShawn Sims #34 of the Michigan Wolverines attempts a shot against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse on March 12, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indi

With their biggest wins coming against other teams on the bubble, the Wolverines don’t have a great resume entering the Big Ten tournament. In their favor, though, is a sensational strength of schedule ranking (18th in the country) and a chance at a 20-win season against that competition.

Of course, to reach 20, Michigan will need to beat Illinois on Friday afternoon. That win, if they get it, should be enough to put the Wolverines into the tournament.

Clemson (RPI: 59)

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BUFFALO, NY - MARCH 19: Tanner Smith #5 of the Clemson Tigers handles the ball against the Missouri Tigers during the first round of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at HSBC Arena on March 19, 2010 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/G

The Tigers’ closest thing to a signature win was a home triumph over Florida State, and they took some tough losses in conference play against non-contenders like Virginia and NC State. Still, their 20 wins have them in a decent position entering the ACC tournament.

After their first-round bye, Clemson will likely face bubble rival Boston College on Friday. A win there should be enough to put the Tigers over the hump.

Virginia Tech (RPI: 64)

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GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 12: Victor Davila #14 of the Virginia Tech Hokies is blocked by Julian Gamble #45 of the University of Miami Hurricanes in their quarterfinal game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on March 12,

As seems to happen every year, the Hokies are hovering on the edges of the big dance. Home wins over Duke and Florida State will help, but being swept by Virginia will not.

A win in their ACC tournament opener against Georgia Tech will be essential to the Hokies’ cause, but they’ll probably need a second victory over Florida State in the next round if they want to secure an at-large bid.

Colorado (RPI: 67)

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 09: Andre Roberson #21 of the Colorado Buffaloes goes up for a shot against the Iowa State Cyclones during the first round of the 2011 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament at Sprint Center on March 9, 2011 in Kansas City

A huge win over Texas highlights Colorado’s impressive 5-6 record against the RPI top 50. Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, they didn’t exactly play stiff competition out of conference. Their non-conference strength of schedule, 323rd in the country, will definitely hurt their case with the committee.

Yesterday’s win over Iowa State was just step one for the Buffaloes. If they can take down Kansas State for the third time in as many tries, that will probably be enough to send Colorado dancing.

USC (RPI: 68)

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LAWRENCE, KS - DECEMBER 18: Donte Smith #14 of the USC Trojans and Tyshawn Taylor #10 of the Kansas Jayhawks chase a loose ball during the game on December 18, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The Trojans have some impressive signature wins, having beaten all three of the Pac-10’s top seeds as well as mighty Texas. They’ve been massively inconsistent, though, with three losses in four tries against the Oregon schools and a home defeat against Bradley hurting their record.

A win over Cal to open the Pac-10 tournament today is a must, but probably won’t be enough without a follow-up victory over (probably) Arizona in the next round.

Alabama (RPI: 82)

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NASHVILLE, TN - FEBRUARY 10: Chris Hines #44 of the Alabama Crimson Tide shoots over Festus Ezeli #3 of the Vanderbilt Commodores at Memorial Gym on February 10, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee. Vanderbilt won 81-77. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The Tide put up an impressive 12-4 SEC record, but most of those wins came against unimpressive SEC West foes.

They have two undeniable signature wins (over Kentucky and on the road against Tennessee), but some bad losses (notably Iowa and Providence) will hurt.

‘Bama absolutely must win their first SEC tournament game after getting a bye into the second round, especially as that game could likely come against bubble competitor Georgia. Even then, a second tournament win (potentially over Kentucky again) might be necessary to overcome their low RPI.