College Football Predictions 2011: Vegas Odds on Winning the BCS Championship
Per Phil Steele, the Hilton Las Vegas has recently released odds for winning the 2012 BCS National Championship which is slated for January 9, 2012 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Forty-nine of the 120 FBS teams are included in the odds (41 percent of all teams) and the rest of the field is listed as having a 30/1 chance to win the whole enchilada.
Of the 10 teams that earned BCS bowl bids in 2010-11, all but one (Connecticut) are included in the odds making and all but one of these nine (Auburn) are listed at 40/1 odds or better.
There are certainly some surprises in the list such as Texas and Notre Dame (at 20/1 odds) who are both ranked above teams like TCU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.
Regardless of the logic, Vegas often seems to have the inside track on who ultimately succeeds on the gridiron. Indeed, these are more than mere predictions; these are about cold hard cash.
300/1 Odds
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North Carolina: Despite losing key players to NCAA sanctions the 2010 Tar Heels posted an 8-5 record. In 2011 UNC returns 10 starters on defense and only five on offense. One of the hardest hits is the departure of QB TJ Yates who led the Tar Heels to a No. 26 national ranking in passing yards.
UCLA: The Bruins are one of only five teams on the odds list that were not bowl eligible in 2010. UCLA returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense to a squad that finished a disappointing 4-8 in 2010. The loss of much of their offensive line is not good news for a team that’s only real bright spot last season was a running game that ranked No. 32 nationally.
North Carolina State: The 2010 edition of NC State reached 9-4 and returns eight starters to each side of the ball for 2011. If the Wolpack can overcome the loss of two key receivers and find more balance on offense, they may find the Top 25 in 2011. A doable non conference schedule certainly won’t hurt.
Pittsburgh: The Pitt Panthers managed to be disappointing enough in 2010 to run off Coach Dave Wannstedt. The Tom Graham (former head man at Tulsa) era in Pittsburgh will begin with six starters returning on offense and eight on defense to a squad that finished 8-5.
Boston College: Despite an early season five game losing skid the Eagles managed to go 7-6 in 2010. The 2011 BC team returns seven starters on both sides of the ball but key losses along the defensive line and in the secondary may prove challenging for a squad who’s brightest spot was its No. 19 ranked defense.
200/1 Odds
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Central Florida: The UCF Knights smoked to an 11-3 record in 2010 (including a Conference USA title and their first ever bowl victory). The 2011 squad will return seven starters on offense and only four on defense. The biggest concern is huge losses to a “D” that ranked No. 8 nationally in 2010. Being mentioned in the Hilton Vegas’ odds (and not at the bottom) has to be considered a tip of the hat to a good Knight (pun intended) program.
Georgia Tech: A disappointing 6-7 2010 campaign sets up an interesting 2011 for a Georgia Tech squad that ranked No. 1 overall in rushing yards last year. The Yellow Jackets return seven starters on offense and five on defense in 2011 but losses on offense include QB Josh Nesbitt and RB Anthony Allen, who combined for almost half of Georgia Tech’s insane 4203 rushing yards in 2010.
Illinois: Illinois finished 2010 at a 7-6 mark and will return nine starters on offense and six on defense for 2011. Gone to the NFL are RB Mike Leshoure and his 1697 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns that lifted the Illini to a No. 11 national rushing ranking (versus No. 111 in passing yards).
BYU: The Cougars finished 7-6 in 2010, a respectable mark for a team in a “rebuilding year.” The newly freed and independent BYU returns 10 offensive starters and six on defense for 2011 and their hodgepodge schedule will make for an intriguing season.
Michigan: After reaching an entertaining 7-6 mark in 2010 the Brady Hoke era will begin with the Wolverines returning 10 starters on offense and eight to a defense that ranked No. 108 in scoring. Almost everyone returns to Ann Arbor but, seriously, then what?
Oregon State: The Beavers are among the five non bowl eligible teams from 2010 to make the Vegas Hilton’s BCS title odds. The 5-7 Beavers (who played non conference road games against TCU and Boise State) return nine starters on offense and four on defense in 2011. There appearance in the odds would seem a bit of a mystery especially given the loss of Jacquizz Rodgers and a big chunk of the defense.
100/1 Odds
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Arizona State: A team that is listed at No. 23 in ESPN’s early preseason Top 25, the Sun Devils return 11 starters on offense and nine on defense from a squad that finished 2010 6-6. Regardless of the fact that ASU is among the five 2010 non-bowl eligible teams on the odds list and the fact that they face a difficult non-conference slate, the Sun Devils are poised to make progress in 2011.
Utah: The 2010 Utes (in their Mountain West swan song) went 10-3 and will return seven offensive starters and only four on defense in 2011. The newest members of the Pac-12 will not only raise the bar on competition but will do so without their two leading rushers, much of a stellar defensive line and key players in the secondary.
Auburn: The defending BCS champion Auburn Tigers return only four starters to each side of the ball for 2011. Not only is Cam Newton gone but so are most of the offensive line and a big nasty list of key defenders. ESPN has Auburn at No. 17 in its early preseason Top 25 and if its highly touted recruiting class can show immediate impact the Tigers should have some success in 2011. A title repeat seems highly unlikely especially given the whole “we’re in the SEC West” thing ...
Maryland: The Terrapins were a bit of a surprise with a 9-4 finish in 2010 and returning seven starters on both sides of the ball appears to bode well for their 2011 campaign. The loss of the two best receivers may be a challenge but Maryland is another team that definitely has Top 25 potential.
Miami (FL): The Hurricanes' new Coach Al Golden will find an interesting assortment when he opens the cupboard in 2011. Though six offensive and seven defensive starters return from the 7-6, 2010 squad gone are the leading rusher, leading receiver and three solid members of the secondary.
Arizona: The 2010 Wildcats dropped their last five contests to finish 7-6 in 2010. In 2011, they return five offensive and seven defensive starters, including QB Nick Foles, but minus (critically) four offensive and four defensive linemen. Wish I could lose that many pounds in the off-season...
Clemson: The Tigers’ bowl loss to USF dropped them to a 6-7 to finish 2010. Though Clemson returns nine offensive starters and seven on defense, gone pro are QB Kyle Parker (MLB), RB Jamie Harper (NFL) and DE De’Quan Bowers (NFL).
Iowa: The Hawkeyes went 8-5 in 2010 with the total margin of loss for their five losses being a whopping 18 points. 2011 would seem to be a rebuilding year for Iowa, with only five starters returning to each side of the ball. Losses include QB Ricky Stanzi, RB Adam Robinson and SS Tyler Sash.
Baylor: The Bears' 7-6 record in 2010 led them to their first bowl appearance in over 15 years. Though a repeat in 2011 will be aided by the return of the Robert Griffin to Kendall Wright passing connection, it will be slowed down by the exit of leading rusher Jay Finley and four starting members of the secondary (especially in the pass happy Big 12 minus two).
California: Cal’s 5-7 finish in 2010 (putting them among the five teams on the odds list not bowl eligible last season) and return of only seven offensive and five defensive starters in 2011 make their appearance on even the 100/1 list seem a bit of a reach. Gone is QB Kevin Riley, as are eight starting defenders to a defense that managed a No. 40 ranking nationally in scoring (statistically the team’s strength).
Tennessee: Despite all the off-field drama and challenges facing first-year coach Derek Dooley, the 6-7 Vols did little to inspire confidence last season. Returning seven starters to each side of the ball in 2011 will hopefully provide some stability to a great football program.
Washington: In 2010, the Huskies finally managed a winning record and a bowl appearance with QB Jake Locker under center but now, unfortunately, Mr. Locker has left the huddle. The Huskies return eight starters to both sides of the ball and must look for improvements on all fronts to achieve similar results in 2011.
Texas Tech: Tommy Tuberville and Texas Tech somehow managed an 8-5 mark in 2010 (despite a struggling Mike Leach-less offense and a flat awful defense). How the Red Raiders will fare without their starting QB, two leading receivers, leading rusher and three defensive leaders is yet to be seen.The Tech faithful should hope for the immediate impact of a program best recruiting class and perhaps some much-needed stability in Tuberville’s second year at the helm.
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75/1 Odds
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Mississippi State
The Bulldogs sit alone at 75/1 odds to go the distance in 2011. MSU returns eight offensive and seven defensive starters to a squad who went 9-4 in 2010.
The Bulldogs will have to replace all their linebackers in 2011 and will have to manage to win the SEC West to even be able to discuss a conference championship, much less the big BCS.
ESPN has MSU ranked at No. 25 in their early preseason Top 25.
60/1 Odds
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West Virginia
The Mountaineers rode their stingy defense to a 9-4 finish in 2010 and return eight offensive and four defensive starters in 2011.
Of concern, the No. 3 scoring defense last season loses three linebackers and four members of the secondary.
On the plus side, new OC and coach-in-waiting Dana Holgorson may be the offensive prophet necessary to take the No. 78-ranked offense to the Promised Land (see Oklahoma State 2009).
Missouri
The 2010 Tigers went 10-3 last season and return nine starters on offense and six on defense in 2011.
Though QB Blaine Gabbert is gone, virtually the rest of the offense remains intact and the No. 6 scoring defense in 2010 looks promising despite huge losses in the secondary.
ESPN’s early Top 25 has Missouri ranked at No. 21.
50/1 Odds
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Michigan State
Often overlooked in the media, the 11-2 Spartans had earned both a Big 10 title and an (untendered) BCS bid in 2010. 2011 brings the return of seven offensive and six defensive starters, including QB Kirk Cousins, most of the backfield and “D” line.
The biggest loss defensively is at linebacker, where both Greg Jones and Eric Gordon will be gone. ESPN has Sparty at No. 16 in its early preseason Top 25. Mental note to the Green and White: see a therapist and block out the Capital One Bowl completely.
Penn State
Though you won’t find Penn State listed on many preseason Top 25 lists, Vegas shows confidence, awarding the Nittany Lions 50/1 odds at running the table. Penn State went 7-6 in 2010 and will return eight starters to each side of the ball in 2011.
40/1 Odds
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Georgia
Regardless of the Dawgs' 6-7 record in 2010, both Vegas and the national media seem to have confidence in the 2011 Georgia football team.
ESPN’s early preseason Top 25 lists Georgia at No. 18 and the Hilton Vegas has them listed as No. 6 among SEC teams in their championship odds (and grouped with three BCS teams from 2010).
With only four true road games and a stellar recruiting class can the Bulldogs overcome the personnel losses after 2010 and rise above last season’s mediocrity?
TCU
The Horned Frogs quietly and systematically went undefeated in 2010 and wrapped up the season by knocking off Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Wow.
In 2011, TCU’s swan song in the Mountain West, the Horned Frogs return only five starters on each side of the ball but still rank No. 9 in ESPN’s early Top 25.
Not only is QB Andy Dalton and his most of his favorite targets gone but so is the offensive line. So, will strength at running back and an always-stingy defense be enough to keep TCU on top?
Virginia Tech
The Hokies dropped their first two games in 2010 and still managed an ACC crown and BCS bid.
In 2011, Virginia Tech returns six offensive and seven offensive starters; the key losses being QB Tyrod Taylor and tailbacks Evans and Williams (to the NFL).
ESPN has the Hokies at No. 22 in their early preseason Top 25.
Wisconsin
The Badgers finished 2010 one game away from a chance at a national title; the Las Vegas Hilton gives the 2011 Wisconsin squad a one in 40 chance of making it all the way in 2011.
The Badgers return five offensive and six defensive starters but have lost QB Scott Tolzien, key offensive linemen and the crux of their linebacker corps.
The running back duo returns (ranked No. 12 last year nationally) and ESPN has Wisconsin at No. 13 preseason.
30/1 Odds
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Arkansas
Ryan Mallett and three offensive line starters are gone from the 2010 (10-3) Hogs, but six offensive and seven defensive starters return for the 2011 campaign.
ESPN has Arkansas at No. 11 and though they might well enjoy another exciting season having Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State on the schedule for 2011 makes even an SEC divisional title seem like a stretch.
Oklahoma State: Are all the stars finally aligning in Stillwater or will 2011 be the reverse of 2010 (a surprise, but a bad one)? The Cowboys return 10 offensive and six defensive starters from their 11-2, 2010 offering and again have great promise on offense and varying questions on defense.
ESPN ranks OSU at No. 10, but what about the exit of mastermind OC Dana Holgorsen? Can the Cowboys spread it out without him?
Texas A&M
A six-win streak in 2010 saved the Aggies’ season and A&M returns ten offensive and eight defensive starters to the squad who was 9-4 when the dust settled.
The biggest question mark for the Aggies in 2011 is at linebacker, where Von Miller and Michael Hodges are both history. ESPN has the Aggies at No. 12 preseason.
25/1 Odds
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South Carolina
The Gamecocks finished a wild 2010 at 9-5 and return seven offensive and six defensive starters in 2011.
There is plenty to like offensively, especially at the skill positions, but the defensive front seven is filled with question marks.
A tough schedule and the addition of Jadeveon Clowney in the recruiting sweepstakes have the Gamecocks listed at No. 15 in ESPN’s Top 25.
Florida
Can the new coaching staff at Florida revive the Gators, who suffered through an 8-5 campaign in 2010?
Will Muschamp has lots of talent to work with including eight offensive and five defensive starters returning to the field in 2011.
The loss of four starting defensive linemen looms overhead but ESPN has the Gators at No. 20 in its preseason rankings.
20/1 Odds
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Stanford
The 12-1 defending Orange Bowl champion Cardinal may be without head coach Jim Harbaugh but they return QB Andrew Luck along with five offensive and six defensive starters for 2011. Key losses are at receiver and offensive line.
New head coach David Shaw leads the preseason ESPN ranked No. 7 Cardinal into a 2011 campaign which includes a fairly favorable schedule featuring seven home contests.
Ohio State
The 12-1, 2010 Buckeyes were only blemished by a visit to Wisconsin while the 2011 edition of Buckeye football, at the very least, will face the suspension of some of its key players through the first five games of 2011.
Despite only returning four starters to each side of the ball OSU still garners 20/1 odds at winning it all and is preseason ranked No. 6 by ESPN. What happens with the Jim Tressel affair could throw all this up into the air.
Texas
Of all the teams listed among those having an opportunity to come home with the championship hardware, Texas seems the most intriguing at 20/1. The 5-7 Longhorns return seven starters on both offense and defense to a team that wasn’t even bowl eligible.
After serious losses on the coaching staff the Longhorns are even more of an unknown in 2011. Sure, Texas is oozing with speed in talent but can they and will they right the ship in 2011?
Vegas predicts 20/1 chances they go all the way, and ESPN puts them at a lofty preseason No. 19. Wow.
Notre Dame
The 8-5 Irish return a whopping 10 offensive and nine defensive starters for 2011. Brian Kelly will finally have his first year behind him and has a Top 10 recruiting class to back him up.
Still, 20/1 odds to win the big burrito and a No. 14 preseason ESPN ranking, seriously? Is it yet another NBC backed Irish hype-wagon or is Notre Dame finally for real again?
Nebraska
Nebraska’s promise in 2010 came to an end with a resounding thud with an unattractive loss to Washington in the Holiday Bowl. The Cornhuskers return six offensive and seven defensive starters from their 10-4 2010 team.
Key losses include RB Roy Helu, who accounted for 1,245 of Nebraska’s 3,466 rushing yards (No. 9 nationally) and three members of the secondary, including CB Prince Amukamara. The Cornhuskers rank No. 24 (ESPN) going into to their historic first season as a member of the Big 10.
15/1 Odds
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Florida State
The 10-4 Seminoles return eight starters to both sides of the ball in 2011. Key losses are at linebacker but FSU managed to rope in the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.
A favorable schedule features an early-season game (hosting Oklahoma) and regular-season finale (at Florida) that could decide just how far the Seminoles go in 2011. ESPN ranks FSU at a lofty No. 3.
Boise State
Lost in the conference shuffle, we shouldn’t forget that Boise State’s move from the WAC to the Mountain West which sets up an intriguing story line for the Broncos in 2011.
The 12-1 Broncos return seven starters on each side of the ball including QB Kellen Moore. Gone are receivers Austin Pettit and Titus Young and two starting safeties.
ESPN has Boise State at No. 8 and the Broncos will face Georgia (in Atlanta), Tulsa, Nevada, Air Force and TCU (all at home) in 2011.
12/1 Odds
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LSU
The 2010 Tigers finished at an 11-2 mark and return nine starters offensively and seven defensively for their 2011 campaign. Key losses include CB Patrick Peterson and TB Stevan Ridley, both to the NFL.
Ridley’s loss is especially painful given he was the Tigers’ leading rusher in 2010 with 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns leading LSU to a No. 27 rushing ranking (vs. No. 107 in passing yards).
Though there is a lot of football to be played a Nov. 5 meeting on the road against Alabama may decide who wins the SEC West and possibly who goes to the BCS title game. ESPN ranks LSU as the preseason No. 4.
8/1 Odds
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Oregon
The losing half of last year's national title equation returns seven offensive and five defensive starters to a team that fell just short of perfection in 2010.
The biggest questions for the Ducks surround the front seven on defense, where Oregon loses five starters.
ESPN has Oregon at No. 5 preseason, which makes the season opener against LSU look like something well worth waiting through a hot, steamy baseball season to see.
5/1 Odds
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Oklahoma
It's no surprise that the Sooners are at the top of the heap in any preseason list: 12-2 Oklahoma returns nine offensive and eight defensive starters in 2011. The biggest question is how to replace RB DeMarco Murray who led the team with 1,214 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Back are QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles, who should hook up for an obscene number of yards.
ESPN has Oklahoma at No. 1 preseason and an early-season test at Florida State might clear up the true national title race immeasurably.
We know the Sooners can win at home, but, will they win the big ones on the road?
Alabama
Anyone who watched 10-3 Alabama play in 2010 saw talent laced with dangerous hunger. The Crimson Tide return seven offensive and ten defensive starters but most notably lose QB Greg McElroy.
Though there are other losses offensively, Alabama looks ready to reload everywhere with the exception of quarterback.
If the No. 2 preseason Crimson Tide can find a replacement under center, they should definitely be a realistic SEC and BCS title contender.
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