2011 NFL Draft: What Are the Odds the Buffalo Bills Trade Down in First Round?

When the Buffalo Bills organization settles into their NFL Draft war room on April 28, the phones should be buzzing. With the Bills sitting at the third overall draft pick, general manager Buddy Nix will have two important decisions to make when the Bills are finally on the clock.

The first important decision is whether to go ahead and draft somebody, or to trade down in the first round in an attempt to secure multiple high draft picks. The second important decision would be to decide who they actually wind up drafting. If Nix decides to trade down, how low is he willing to drop?

If you consider some of the overall talent available that is projected to go somewhere in the top 10 in the draft, let's start by throwing out 11 names, which we will refer to as Pool A: Da'Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley, Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green, Von Miller, Prince Amukamara, Blaine Gabbert, Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan. That is a solid group of potential impact players.

As the Bills organization is still in rebuilding mode, the team is sorely lacking in major impact players. If you try to determine how many elite players are on the Bills' current roster, the number would have to be considered negligible. So, can the Bills truly afford to pass up the chance to draft an elite player?

We are not yet placing Cam Newton in the Pool A group because he is much like Tim Tebow was in the 2010 draft. So much hype and speculation surrounds Newton that it hurts to even think about it. Or as my friend John says, that is a "whole 'nother Cam of worms."

I would be happy with basically anybody in Pool A if I were drafting in the No. 7-11 overall slot. At No. 3, the group of players I would be happy with shrinks dramatically, because there is some doubt that all of them are worthy of the third overall pick. 

So, with all of these options from 7-11, would it really hurt the Bills team on either a short-term or long-term basis to trade down and bypass an elite player? If the end result was coming up with extra high draft picks, would that be enough to justify moving down four to eight spots in the first round?

Let's look at each of the potential trade partners in the 7-11 range, and see what other picks they control in rounds one through four, which we would consider to be the high round draft picks that are more desirable for the rebuilding effort.

The San Francisco 49ers have the following overall picks: 7, 45, 76, 107 and 114.

The Tennessee Titans have the following overall picks: 8, 39, 77 and 108.

The Dallas Cowboys have the following overall picks: 9, 40, 71 and 109.

The Washington Redskins have the following overall picks: 10 and 41.

The Houston Texans have the following overall picks: 11, 42, 73 and 104.

So, looking at these options, Washington would be the only terrible trade partner, since its cupboard is bare. The 49ers are the only team that holds an extra draft pick—they have one extra fourth-round pick, just like the Bills do. 

So what would these teams be willing to give up, if they jumped up from their current slot to third overall? It would probably help to provide a link for the NFL draft pick trade chart. You can find that here.

In an interview at the NFL scouting combines, Nix said that he really doesn't refer to the trade chart, but he has one staff member that stays on top of that and relays information to him.

The chart shows that the Bills' pick at third overall is worth 2,200 points—that is a whole lot of points. For example, the 49ers would have to give up their own first, second and third picks and the second of their two fourth-round picks to move up four places to draft third. If you were the Bills and only had to move down four places in the first round to gain an extra second-, third- and fourth-round pick, what would you do? To me, that would seem like a no-brainer. How quickly do I sign off on that?

We should also mention the one wild card team in the upcoming draft—the New England Patriots. We wonder aloud if either team would seriously consider trading with each other, as they are AFC East rivals, but stranger things have happened. Why the Patriots, you ask? Because they own six draft picks in the first three rounds, holding the 17th, 28th, 33rd, 60th, 74th and 92nd overall picks.

If the Bills were going to consider a swap with the Patriots, that means they would be going all the way down to the 17th overall pick. The only reason for the Patriots to consider a deal is that they would have to value one specific player who is so dynamic that they would surrender three draft picks to select him.

From the value chart, the Patriots would have to trade the 28th and 33rd picks as well. Consider that, Bills fans. Would you be happy if we held the 17th, 28th, 33rd and 34th picks overall? That would basically net the Bills four first-round draft picks, albeit a couple of them could be construed as fringe-type first-rounders. Holding four of the top 34 draft picks is nothing to sneeze at.

If that deal could be completed, then the Bills would be sitting there with the first two picks for Day Two of the draft. With every team regrouping and reassessing their draft boards overnight, it is not out of the question to say that the Bills could entertain another trade and drop down some spots to secure even more draft picks. The Bills would truly be in the driver's seat on Day Two. When is the last time you recall the Bills and "in the driver's seat" being used in the same sentence?

If you are wondering who the Bills could possibly draft 17th, here are some names that would comprise Pool B: Nate Solder, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt, Anthony Castonzo, Justin Houston, Corey Liuget, Jimmy Smith, Akeem Ayers, Gabe Carimi, Ryan Kerrigan, Muhammad Wilkerson and Adrian Clayborn. We have already listed 23 names overall, and didn't even include Julio Jones, Mark Ingram or Cam Newton. 

Again, there is some definite quality talent in Pool B. The draft is considered to be deep in rounds two through four, so that is why it makes sense for the Bills to explore all trade options available to the team.

There you go Bills fans. We have laid out all of the parameters, and now it is time for you to vote. Your choices are one of the following: Stay at No. 3 and draft the best player available to you there, trade down to the 7-11 range to secure added picks or go for the deal with the Patriots to hold four choices in the first 34 picks.