Adam Wainwright Injured: How Will This Impact Albert Pujols Re-Signing?
The St. Louis Cardinals looked like they had everything ready for one final good run in 2011, before Albert Pujols hits the free agent market. Unfortunately, they have now received possibly the worst news they could hear outside of Pujols signing elsewhere.
Adam Wainwright, ace pitcher for the Cardinals, is being sent back to St. Louis to have tests done on his elbow, and Tommy John surgery is likely. If this is the case, then he's done for the 2011 season.
Besides dashing playoff hopes for the season (the Reds and Brewers make this a very tough division), this could throw a wrench in the works on the Albert Pujols contract situation. How will this injury affect Pujols' re-signing with the Cardinals?
Season-Ending Surgery May Help
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While Wainwright losing 2011 off of his resume is a big blow for himself and the Cardinals, it opens up a bit of salary cap room for Albert Pujols to use in St. Louis' bid to re-sign him.
Wainwright is owed $9 million in 2012 and $12 million in 2013. If the injury is career-threatening, then not only is that money free to use, but any future earnings Wainwright would have gotten (he's a $15M+ a year pitcher) can be used, which could open up the purse strings enough to keep Pujols around.
Two Injury-Riddled Aces Could Hurt
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Even if the injury turns out not to be a big deal, there could still be trouble in St. Louis, simply because there would now be two people with serious injuries in the rotation.
Aside from Wainwright, Chris Carpenter missed the entire 2003 season due to injury, as well as nearly all of 2007 and 2008. That would mean that the top two pitchers have pasts with injury trouble, and that may give Pujols cause for concern if he wants to continue winning.
Injury, Even If Not Serious, Could Free Up Money
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Let's say instead of it being season-ending, Wainwright just misses part of the season. While the Cardinals will still have the contract obligations for this season in 2011 and 2012, because he'll miss part of this year, he won't have the 2013 option picked up.
What this means is they can negotiate a new contract sooner, and because of missing time in 2011, they might not have to spend as much on Wainwright, making it more possible to keep both Wainwright and Pujols.
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Cardinals Need To Prove to Pujols They Can Win As Is
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The St. Louis Cardinals are in a tight spot in 2011, with the Reds and Brewers breathing down their back in the NL Central. They need to prove that they can win with, for the most part, the pieces they have in place now.
While they did win a World Series title in 2006, what rings in Pujols' mind is that they missed the playoffs in 2010, and that they could be without their ace in 2011. That is going to make him think about other destinations if he has not been doing so already.
Might Need to Spend More On Pitching
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Perhaps the main problem for the Cardinals is that they'll have to spend more money on pitching. They don't have much proven talent in the farm system, and while Carpenter/Garcia/Westbrook is still a good core, they will likely need to sign a free agent.
The remaining free agents in the starting pitching market aren't that good to begin with, but would also want $3-4 million, which is money the Cardinals cannot afford to be tossing around while they're trying to keep Pujols.
If Injury Is a Problem, Cutting Wainwright Looks Bad
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It might sound like if the injury is serious enough, I would support cutting Wainwright from the Cardinals to free up some money. That could not be further from the truth; doing that would be a disaster.
If Pujols is looking at clubs and sees one that cuts players at the first sign of major trouble, than he's not going to want to be anywhere near them when his skills start to diminish. Despite the seriousness of the situation, the Cardinals will likely have to hold on to Wainwright to keep Pujols.
Could Descent Cause Cardinals to Contemplate Trade?
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I'm making sure to hit all options even if they sound ridiculous, such as this. There is the chance that the Cardinals could end up trading Albert Pujols around the deadline to rebuild the roster.
If they lose Wainwright for the year, that's at least five wins off the Cardinals win-loss record when replaced by another pitcher, probably more. They'll be out of the playoffs, and if Pujols hints at leaving to them, they may trade him to rebuild parts of their team.
Could Pujols Ask For Trade?
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Albert Pujols has a no-trade clause in his contract, and even if the Cardinals do have a poor year record-wise, the odds of this happening are essentially nil.
Sure, the Cardinals may think of this as a possibility, but Pujols is playing this year to have the best year he can. He'll be looking to have a no-question MVP year, and if he's traded midseason then that could cause a problem.
The consensus to me is clear: despite this injury, there will be no trade. That doesn't mean that Pujols will stay in St. Louis, far from it...
Would Developing Youth Help or Hurt Keeping Pujols?
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With Wainwright out and a couple of positions up for grabs, now would be as good a time as any to try out some of the Cardinals' farm talent at the major league level. They have many great players around them so they don't have to worry about carrying the team.
The question is whether or not Pujols wants to be part of a team that has a lot of younger players. On the one hand, teams with more youth means a smaller payroll, which means more money for him. On the other hand, he doesn't want to be a piece in a rebuilding scheme, even if he's the king of said rebuilding.
Only One Thing is Certain
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The Adam Wainwright issue does shake up the Albert Pujols contract issue, with the more specific being whether this helps or hurts it. The short-term answer is we won't know the true effects until we know exactly what's wrong with Wainwright's elbow and how long he'll be out.
Only one thing is certain: The Cardinals should be worried. This is a terrible way to start off a season where other teams in the division have made huge moves, and they are losing one of the top five pitchers in MLB for what could be one of the most important years for the team in a long time.
All the Cards can do is hope that it was an aggravation of an injury from way back then, and that Wainwright just needs to rest for a few weeks. They can't afford Tommy John surgery.
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