NBA Power Rankings: Every Team's Odds Of Winning an NBA Title
Now that the All-Star Weekend has come and gone, it’s time to get back to the second half of basketball. With just a couple months left in the regular season, and the trading deadline upon us, the NBA playoff push is in full swing. Teams are assessing their needs and determining where the NBA Finals chances lie.
The truth is there are three types of teams. The teams that have a shot. The teams that have no shot and the teams that could go either way. So, to break this down further, the NBA teams will be assessed odds of winning it all. We’ll set the low mark at 100-1 and the high mark at 2-1. We’ll take a quick look at where they’ve been and a brief look at where they are heading.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers
1 of 30
Odds: 100-1
There isn’t anything to say about the Cavaliers that hasn’t already been said at the team funeral. We’ll move on.
29. Minnesota Timberwolves
2 of 30
Odds: 100-1
The Timberwolves aren’t going to make it to the playoffs. There is just no way. And the future, which looked bright and Ricky Rubio well, is now looking grim as Rubio is making everyone doubt that he can play in the NBA.
The Wolves better hope he can or fool them long enough for them to trade the contract and get value for it. Otherwise, it’s just another busted move for Minnesota. At least, they have Kevin Love.
28. Washington Wizards
3 of 30
Odds: 100-1
The good news is that they have John Wall. The bad news is they can’t win on the road and don’t have much else. It’s going to be a struggle for the Wizards to matter again.
However, they were given a ray of light as they were able to deal what was thought to be the untradeable contract of Gilbert Arenas. Here’s hoping they can make good with that gift.
27. Sacramento Kings
4 of 30
Odds: 95-1
Sacramento has a great core of good young players, but they aren’t nearly ready yet. They have thought about taking on the contract of Yao Ming, and it might be a good idea if they are going to relocate the team to another city. Things are on the rise for the Kings.
26. Toronto Raptors
5 of 30
Odds: 95-1
The Raptors aren’t nearly left in the lurch the way the Cavaliers are. The Raptors will survive without Bosh, and they’ll be closer to being relevant again, but this year isn’t the year.
25.Detroit Pistons
6 of 30
Odds: 95-1
At some point, Joe Dumars has to be called out onto the carpet. The massive money given to Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. The big money deal they may have to buy Rip Hamilton out of and the big money they gave to Tayshaun Prince who is mercifully on the last year.
The Pistons are a mess, and it’s going to take years to clean it up. They might want to get a better GM to help them.
24. Charlotte Bobcats
7 of 30
Odds: 95-1
Michael Jordan is in need of a miracle. The G.O.A.T is in need of a top of the line draft pick or a trade he doesn’t deserve for a player like Gerald Wallace. The Bobcats can’t even think about winning until they get a serious talent upgrade, but is Michael Jordan the guy you trust to bring in that talent?
23. New Jersey Nets
8 of 30
Odds: 90-1
Here’s the good news and the bad news for the Nets: if they get Carmelo Anthony they will be a better team, but they won’t be much better. The Nets need to think long and hard about what they are chasing after.
Melo is a great player, but if they have to give up almost everyone to get him, he isn’t worth it. Not to mention the fact that Melo doesn’t appear to want to sign with the Nuggets long-term. Even if Melo were to agree to a three-year extension, is that really enough to bring him over and give up everything?
22. Milwaukee Bucks
9 of 30
Odds: 80-1
The Bucks are hitching their wagon to a guy who might be more hype than substance. The Bucks are looking for Brandon Jennings to take him into the future, but how good is he really?
From a distance he’s a premier guard in the league, but the closer you look at him, the more you wonder what all the fuss was about with him in the first place.
21. Indiana Pacers
10 of 30
Odds: 80-1
It’s almost a blessing in disguise if Indiana misses the playoffs. They know they can’t get the big free agents that the major markets can get. They know have to look for the game-changing player they can draft.
However, they are having so much trouble deciding on how they feel about Danny Granger that him just being there could hurt their draft. They need to decide who is a part of the future and who’s just a part of the past.
20. Los Angeles Clippers
11 of 30
Odds: 70-1
Two things are certain about the Clippers this season. The first is that there is no way they are making it to the NBA Finals. They are probably little chance they even make it to the playoffs. However, there is no sub .500 team you are hotter to see than the Clippers. One name:
Blake Griffin.
When you talk about upside, you must be talking about Blake. He’s so raw that when he finally improves the technical side of his game, he’ll be a guy to watch for the next decade. He’s that good.
19. Houston Rockets
12 of 30
Odds: 65-1
The Rockets have strengths on their team that would be a weakness on another—they don’t have a leader. There is no one on that team that stands out as a guy to take over a game.
Once they lost Yao, they threw out the notion that they had a “go-to” guy. It’s time to make moves and trade the best assembled cast of role players in the NBA out to other teams. The rebuilding begins now.
18. Golden State Warriors
13 of 30
Odds: 60-1
Here’s a clue for Golden State as they contemplate what to do about Steph Curry and Monta Ellis—keep them both. They are never going to find the value they want for either of these players. The Warriors are a good team with a chance to grow and excite the fans with their lineup.
Unless they know the master plan to reach the Finals by dealing one of their stars, they should do themselves a favor and just have a little fun and see how much noise offensively-gifted players can make.
17. Denver Nuggets
14 of 30
Odds: 60-1
If the Denver Nuggets trade Carmelo Anthony, Nene Hilario or J.R Smith or any combo of those three, they would plummet on this list instantly.
The truth is they only register on the middle 10 of this list because if they do keep everyone together, they have enough talent to make it to make noise in the playoffs. But that’s a big IF. It won’t be surprising if half the team is gone by the deadline.
16. Philadelphia 76ers
15 of 30
Odds: 60-1
Welcome to the team with two seasons. There was the part of the season where they wanted to ship Elton Brand out of town (as if he had takers lined up for him) and then they wanted to trade Andre Iguodala who has been a well-liked player by the fans.
But then, Philly started to pull it together, and now, they are in their own vortex of : Do we trade off the team and start rebuilding, or are these pieces we can add to and be winners? The answer is they should have started rebuilding, but they wanted to win now. And now they won’t.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
16 of 30
Odds: 60-1
Memphis is a top-10 defensive team but a middle-10 offensive team. They have hitched their wagon to Rudy Gay, and he’s injured. They hoped Mayo would step up, but he’s trade bait at this point, and even that is starting to sound like a stretch.
The Grizzlies may not make the playoffs and are in dire straits and could be heading into the Basketball Hell vortex where a team is good enough to miss the lottery, but bad enough to be irrelevant when the playoffs roll around.
14. Phoenix Suns
17 of 30
Odds: 55-1
Steve Nash had to think that the twilight of his career would be better than playing for an eight seed with Vince Carter, but that’s what happens when you are a loyal franchise guy. You have to credit the Suns for wanting to keep him instead of squeezing out the value that he has left.
Of course, you have to credit Nash for saying the right things, but will he regret it later? The simple fact is he should be on a contender. But nice guys finish last. A lot.
13. New York Knicks
18 of 30
Odds: 45-1
The Knicks could be a little higher on this list if they land Melo, and they could be lower if they don’t, so they split the difference and landed at 13. The problem facing the Knicks, who have been very watchable this year, is Mike D’Antoni.
The reality for those who watch the playoffs, is that a run-and-gun offense doesn’t get you to the promised land. D’Antoni doesn’t have a half-court game or a defensive strategy.
The Knicks are an exciting team, and Amar'e Stoudemire is one of the biggest surprises for guys living up to the hype, but ultimately, you have to stop someone in the playoffs to win. The Knicks don’t know how to do that, and it’s not how they do it anyway.
12. Utah Jazz
19 of 30
Odds: 40-1
Jerry Sloan walking out on the Jazz was a huge blow to a team that has far more to worry about than the playoffs. This is not a team that is going to compete for the Finals. Deron Williams has done his best to keep the team afloat this season, but now, the Jazz must think past the season and into the future.
Will Williams want to stick around for a longer extension? Will they get a coach who can give them stability. It’s funny to think of the Jazz as not having coaching stability, but that’s what they have become.
11. New Orleans Hornets
20 of 30
Odds: 35-1
If you had any question as to the value of Chris Paul, look no further than the New Orleans Hornets this season. The job Chris Paul has done with a team that would be closer to the Cleveland Cavaliers in record if Paul didn’t exist, is nothing short of miraculous.
This is a marginally-talented offensive team that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency, and they know how to play good defense.
The Hornets are a smoke screen for the Finals. They are good enough to compete for a spot, but against a good team, they’ll get exposed. The truth is the Hornets should be more focused on the Chris Paul situation. They have to decide now if they will be able to sign him long-term. If not they need to start entertaining offers before that knee of his gives out.
10. Portland Trailblazers
21 of 30
Odds: 30-1
If Brandon Roy were the complete realization of his potential (meaning he had never got injured) where would they be ranked?
You have to assume that with the renewed passion with which Aldridge is playing the game, and the moxy of this team, that they might have the juice to make a title run, but alas Roy’s news have turned him into a shell of his former self. And, of course, this is the same Blazers team without Greg Oden.
The rumor is that the Blazers have been looking to rebuild, and at this point, it’s their best move. So if they do, they’ll be the greatest team that never was.
9. Atlanta Hawks
22 of 30
Odds: 30-1
What is it about the Hawks that make them good enough to crack many top-10 lists, but not good enough for anyone to take them seriously as title contenders? Is it that they are 13th in defensive efficiency and 15th in offensive efficiency? Is that the microcosm of their problems?
The Hawks are good in every area, but they are great in any one area. They aren’t the best defensive team. They aren’t the best offensive team. The bench is good but not that good. They have experience but not the most experience. The Hawks, barring a trade, will remain a team that is good enough to be a tough out in the playoffs but an out for sure.
8. Orlando Magic
23 of 30
Odds: 20-1
Few in season trades have been riskier than the trades the Magic did. Maybe it was to put the right pieces around Dwight Howard so he’ll think twice about walking when his contract is up. The truth is that the Magic needed that push, and they appear to be more dangerous than they were before.
But eight on this list means they aren’t as dangerous as Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy would like them to be. The Magic have a deep and quality team, but it lacks a leader who will step up and take the enormous pressure off Howard.
The other issue staring them in the face is when the playoff time rolls around: will Howard be the guy they think he can be? Will he take that next level? So far, he hasn’t shown the ability to play at that winner's level. That could cost them in the end.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder
24 of 30
Odds: 15-1
With the exception of Miami, is their a forward/guard combo in the NBA that scares people more than in Oklahoma City? Unlike Miami, the Westbrook Durant connection seems to be seemless. The Thunder have one perceived problem, that I don’t see a problem at all:
Why hasn’t Durant taken the next step?
Many wanted to see Durant take the next step, but they feel he’s not there. I disagree. Watch him play; he can score from anywhere, has great passing ability and a basketball IQ that’s off the charts. What’s really been the story is Russell Westbrook.
His ascension into the elite point guard has taken the pressure off Durant, and now, he doesn’t have to take that next step; Westbrook took it for him.
6. Dallas Mavericks
25 of 30
Odds: 10-1
The Mavericks keep looking for a trade, but it might not be needed or warranted. They are doing fine without Carron Butler. What we have seen from Dallas this year is a renewed sense of confidence from Dirk Nowitzki and a team that is in the upper half on both sides of the ball.
The key for the Mavericks will be how Stojakovich integrates into the offense. They are already singing his praises, but if he can work himself into the offense regularly and Beaubois can make strides, the Mavericks could be dangerous in the playoffs.
5. Miami Heat
26 of 30
Odds: 6-1
No team in the NBA scares people more than the Heat do. It doesn’t make them the best, but it makes them the most dangerous by a long shot. The truth is that for all the leaps and bounds of progress the Heat have made, they are not even close to realizing their full potential. And yet, they still rank third in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency.
To break that down, the Heat are dangerous when the Miami Thrice is on the court at the same time, and they are still learning to play together.
They rank five here, but as their half-court game continues to improve, and if they can figure out a way to beat the Celtics, they could shoot up on this list.
4. San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
Odds: 5-1
Here’s the team no one gave any thought to before the season started. Tim Duncan and his crew were thought to be old and past their prime, but they have taken a page out of the Celtics book about wanting it and knowing they might not be this good again.
The thing that has to scare the rest of the league about the Spurs is they’re still top 10 in both points allowed and in points scored. So even though Greg Popovich has opened up the offense, they still know how to play defense.
The Spurs will make some noise in the playoffs, and with a big-game player like Manu Ginobili, the Spurs could be the team that you keep waiting on to fall.
3. Chicago Bulls
28 of 30
Odds: 3-1
Welcome to the very last team the Boston Celtics want to see come playoff time. It’s the team that no one pays attention to but should. The scary thing about the Bulls 38-16 record is that they have missed one of their three main plays for all but nine games this season. Joakim Noah comes back this week, and if he returns to form, could make the Bulls twice as good as they are now.
This team doesn’t just win, they win against good teams. Their only problem could be if they have to see the Knicks in the playoffs. They seem to have serious match up problems against them, but for everyone else, they could be a real headache. They play tough defense, and they have a superstar in Derrick Rose who isn’t afraid of the moment.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
29 of 30
Odds: 2-1
Believe what you want about the Los Angeles Lakers but believe better of Phil Jackson. This isn’t his first time coaching a team that’s older, overworked and getting everyone’s best effort every night.
It’s true the Lakers have had their problems, and they’ll have to improve their defense in the playoffs, but Jackson has a way of getting the best out of players when it matters the most.
Don’t expect Kobe and company to get supercharged the next time they play Dallas, but when the games start to really matter, this team will make the adjustments and be ready to head back to the finals. The question will be: will they have enough left in the tank at that point? The answer will be no.
1. Boston Celtics
30 of 30
Odds: Even
The Celtics are bar none the deepest and best team in the NBA. Their roster is full of leaders, role players and savvy basketball vets who have been through the wars and are just looking for one more ring on the hand. The Celtics cruised to the East’s best record while facing injuries to most notably Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo.
The only thing that could derail the Celtics at this point is a season-ending injury to any one of their starters. With an older team that is never out of the question, but since injuries can’t be predicted, we’ll assume they stay healthy.
Too much defense, too much depth and too much desire from guys who know their days are numbered and you have a recipe for an NBA Championship.
