2011 NFL Mock Draft: Post-Combine NFC North Breakdown
2011 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down How the Packers, Bears, Lions and Vikings Might Address the Draft
While there are plenty of mock drafts out there that break down all 32 teams, very few exist that focus solely on the divisions inside the NFL.
For fans of the NFC North, there is finally one for you.
We've brought together featured columnists Dean Holden (Detroit Lions), Bryan Dietzler (Chicago Bears) and myself (Green Bay Packers) to bring to you an NFC North mock draft. (Note: Both Minnesota Vikings featured columnists declined an offer to contribute.)
In this mock, we break down each team's first three rounds and address the needs and later round options as well.
The Vikings (I'm using Drafttek.com to pick Minnesota and avoid any bias) are the first NFC North team on the clock.
Vikings First Round Selection (No. 12): Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
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It'd be hard to fault some in Minnesota who might think this pick is somewhat curious.
While Drafttek has Cameron Newton available at No. 12, it's hard to envision that he'll be available to the Vikings.
However, Minnesota should be looking to upgrade their quarterback position. Joe Webb is an interesting prospect, but do fans in Minnesota really think he could lead that team to a championship?
This is a quarterback dominated league, and you need an elite player at that position.
Yet if the Vikings couldn't find a viable quarterback at No. 12, Dareus actually makes some sense.
At times, Dareus was a dominating defensive lineman at Alabama, and the Williams Wall in Minnesota might be breaking up.
Dareus would infuse some young talent in the Vikings' aging defense, and could help them regain their status as one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL.
Lions First Round Selection (No. 13): Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Dean: I wrestled with this pick for a long time, and frankly, I still don’t like it. But it’s bad form to figure a trade down into a mock draft, and Ayers is the best pick for the Lions at 13.
Ayers is a speedy linebacker who has the ability to get into the backfield quickly and get sideline-to-sideline in a hurry. There is lots of tape featuring a running back taking a handoff and finding Ayers standing between him and his own offensive line.
He boasts fantastic versatility (he can play ILB, OLB, or DE and plays respectable underneath coverage, though he struggles in man-to-man), has above-average instincts and he finds himself around the ball most of the time.
The problem is what he does when he gets there. Ayers is a lean athlete who lacks hitting power, and couples that with an inability to wrap up when he tackles. The result is that he finds himself on the wrong end of a lot of broken tackles.
Being a speed demon, Ayers often ends up out of position and overpursuing the ball carrier, as well. He tries to make up for this by sitting back and letting the ball come to him, but sometimes he does this in attacking situations when he should be going downhill, which would drive blitz-happy Gunther Cunningham up a wall.
Still, Ayers makes the most sense with this pick because he’s the best mix of best player available/greatest need.
With top corner prospects Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara almost certain to be off the board in the top 10, the talent at that position drops off steeply to Jimmy Smith and Brandon Harris, both widely considered in the late first/early second-round range.
Lately, Smith’s stock has been rising, but any available CB at 13 still has to be considered a reach and the Lions have not strung together two successful drafts by reaching for players, no matter how badly they’re perceived to need them.
Ultimately, Ayers’ talent wins out, because his physical prowess is there, his frame can probably take another 10-15 pounds without affecting his speed and the majority of his flaws are coachable. If he works out the bugs in his game and adjusts well to playing in a 4-3 defense, he could be a game-changing player.
Chicago Bears First Round Selection (No. 29): Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
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Bryan: If the Bears are lucky enough to have a shot at him, then they should take Pouncey in the first round.
This guy would help them fill two needs on the offensive line which is a unit that is clearly the weakest on the team. With center Olin Kreutz aging, the Bears will want to find his replacement and Pouncey would be the right guy for the job.
Being that Chicago will have to re-sign Kreutz, they can play him another year or two at the center position while Pouncey can work at the guard position and give the Bears someone time to develop and then replace Pouncey when he’s ready to make the switch to center.
Pouncey has a lot of starting experience and has the ideal size to play guard and center in the NFL. He’s very strong and powerful and is a hard worker both on and off the field.
His weakness is his lack of ideal athleticism and the fact that he needs to work on his pass blocking skills a little more.
Chicago couldn’t go wrong by drafting Pouncey if he manages to fall to them in the first round.
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Packers First Round Selection (No. 32): Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Zach: Gabe Carimi confidently declared himself the draft's "best offensive tackle" at the NFL combine, but that might be a stretch even for the talented Badger.
While Nate Solder, Tyron Smith and Anthony Castonzo are all possibilities to go before him, the Packers wouldn't have a problem if Carimi fell to Green Bay at No. 32.
In that scenario, the Packers would be afforded the luxury of three starting-quality tackles heading into next season with Carimi, 2010 first-round pick Bryan Bulaga and 2010 Pro-Bowler Chad Clifton.
At the onset, Carimi could learn behind the two and provide a safety blanket for the Packers should either Bulaga or Clifton get hurt.
In the long-term, however, Carimi and Bulaga would give Green Bay a solid pair of bookend tackles to protect Aaron Rodgers for the foreseeable future.
With two starters already in place, drafting an offensive tackle might be a luxury pick for the Packers.
Even so, no one in Green Bay is going to complain with adding more security for the face of the Packers' franchise.
Vikings Second Round Selection (No. 43): Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pitt
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With the potential departure of Sidney Rice in free agency, the Vikings again bypass their quarterback need and select Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh.
At 6'5", 225 lbs., Baldwin is a big target like Rice and can run as well.
He's still a little bit raw to expect Baldwin to give the Vikings everything Rice did, but his selection would be the start of replacing what Rice gave Minnesota's offense.
Lions Second Round Selection (No. 44): Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
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Dean: This is perhaps a pipe dream scenario, as Williams’ stats don’t do justice to his skills. That’s the kind of thing that gets corrected at the NFL Combine, so it’s possible that Williams is a first-rounder yet.
And at this point, Williams is part of a logjam of corners projected somewhere between the late first round and middle of the second.
Opinions vary on who will go and in what order, but the Lions can consider themselves as the recipients of great fortune if Williams is still on the board at 44. Williams has great top-end speed, agility and intelligence.
About 15 seconds into this video, Williams shows skills at his position that are veteran-like.
First, he shows the physical skills to stay with his receiver, choosing the right time to turn, staying with him down the field. Then he watches his receiver’s eyes, turns his body to look for the ball, shields the receiver without interfering and comes down with the interception. It’s a textbook play.
In addition, Williams’ off-the-field intangibles are great. His coaches all rave about his maturity and intelligence and his performance on the field shows how well he’s able to take coaching—look for his combine interview to be off the charts.
Williams is a dream cover corner, but he’s not without his weak points. He’s a poor open-field tackler, which makes him a liability in the run game. Like Ayers, he tries to tackle with his shoulder instead of wrapping up, which won’t cut it in the NFL (and worse, could do damage to his shoulder).
Still, there’s no reason the Lions would pass on Williams at 44, and with the sheer number of first/second-round CBs, he could get there. Even if he isn’t, the Lions will most likely be able to find a steal of a CB in the second round instead of reaching for one in the first.
Bears Second Round Selection (No. 59): Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana
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Bryan: The Bears need to be interested in wide receivers in this draft and the second round could be where they find the wide receiver that they want to help them improve their passing game and potentially give themselves a number one wide receiver.
There may not be a lot of people that are aware of Doss but he’s about to make a name for himself in upcoming workouts and at the combine. Doss has good height (coming in at 6’3”) and has excellent hands.
His catching mechanics are very good and runs very good routes. He’s intelligent enough to find holes in the zone and is a great go-to receiver.
What he struggles with is his strength. He is not strong enough yet to go up and wrestle the ball away from cornerbacks. He also has a thin frame and can get dinged easily by linebackers or safeties hitting him hard across the middle. He’s not a strong blocker either and needs some work.
Chicago may be interested in a guy like Doss if he can prove that he’s able to develop into a solid receiver and become a productive part of their offense.
Look for Chicago to take a look at Doss during the combine and show some interest in him.
Packers Second Round Selection (No. 64): Sam Acho, LB, Texas
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Zach: While I think the Packers might go with a defensive lineman in the first two rounds (Cullen Jenkins has one foot out the door in Green Bay), it'd be hard for the Packers to pass up Sam Acho.
Acho had a solid combine by running under 4.7 and displaying the burst necessary to be an edge rusher in the Packers 3-4 defense.
Those skills would give Acho the opportunity to start right away for Green Bay, and that's great value for a guy at the end of the second round.
Don't be surprised if GM Ted Thompson chooses to restock the defensive line, but Acho would give the Packers another solid pass-rushing threat opposite Clay Matthews.
Vikings Have No Third Round Selection
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Minnesota traded its third round pick for Randy Moss back in October.
Lions Third Round Selection (No. 75): Titus Young, WR, Boise State
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Dean: It’s no big secret. The Lions’ receiving corps start at phenomenal with Calvin Johnson, fall to pretty good with Nate Burleson, and then plummet to a cold, dark place after that.
The Lions have gotten away with it because of strong receiving play by their tight ends and backs, but they need to carry more than two legitimate receivers on the roster.
Titus Young may be the solution. His size (5’ 11," 174 pounds) suggests a slot receiver, but he’s actually a deep threat with blazing speed. That could send Burleson over to the slot role, where he could be the most effective.
Young brings with him kick return ability as well as a proven ability to carry the ball for large gains from scrimmage. His versatile Senior Bowl performance drew comparisons to DeSean Jackson.
Young has some character issues and many will say he piled up stats against weaker opposition, but speed is speed. Calvin Johnson would very much like to play across the field from another deep threat.
Depending on what mock you look at, Young could go anywhere from the first to the fourth round, so there is a fair amount of doubt as to whether he’ll be around in the middle of the third, but it’s a fair assumption that his size will offset some of his blazing speed.
Bears Third Round Selection (No. 88): Jarvis Jenkins, DE/DT, Clemson
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Bryan: Chicago is going to be looking for someone to replace Tommie Harris (who was released on Monday) and will probably look for some help there anywhere between the first and third rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Looking at the talent that could be available in the third round of the draft, Chicago may find out that they are interested in Jenkins a guy that can make some noise on the defensive line.
Jenkins size reminds people of Tommie Harris a little bit as he comes in at almost 6’4” and weighs 309 pounds. He is athletic and gets a good burst off the snap.
He has good leverage, a nice bull rush and stays low when he has to. He can run down plays from behind and comes into the draft with several honors and accolades.
Jenkins will tend to play too high against the pass at times and doesn’t have the ability to stay in for three plays as he tends to break down at times. He’s better against the run than he is against the pass and did have a knee injury, but missed just one game.
Jenkins seems to be an ideal candidate for the Bears, but he needs to improve his pass rushing prowess in order to have success in the Bears defense (or any defense).
If he works out well during the combine and in subsequent workouts, he could be of some serious interest to the Bears.
Packers Third Round Selection (No. 96): Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
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Zach: With James Jones possibly on his way out of Green Bay and Donald Driver is the twilight of his career, drafting a receiver somewhat early makes sense for the Packers.
The big names will be long gone by pick 96, but Green Bay could find another small-school gem in Jernigan.
The former Troy receiver is just 5'9" and 180 lbs., but can provide the Packers another slot receiver and would solve the problems at kick and punt returner.
Jernigan might not be the next Greg Jennings, but his multi-dimensional skill set is attractive for a Packers team that values every man on the 53-man roster.
Vikings Later Round Needs and Options
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While it's clear the Vikings need a quarterback, they aren't without holes elsewhere on the roster.
Minnesota could use upgrades along the offensive line and in the secondary, and they might also need replacements at defensive end and outside linebacker depending on free agency.
With that said, this could be a very important draft for the Vikings.
Many will decide that Minnesota needs to take the best available quarterback at No. 12, but the late round selections could prove just as important.
The Vikings could look at a guy like Justin Boren or Orlando Franklin on the offensive line, or possibly Chuykie Brown or Deunta Williams in the secondary.
Lions Later Round Needs and Options
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Dean: The Lions are lacking severely in late-round draft picks, thanks to a myriad of trades for players like Chris Houston, Shaun Hill, and Rob Sims.
They also lost their only remaining seventh-round pick and were forced to swap fifth-rounders with Kansas City after being found guilty of tampering in the Jarrad Page case.
So the Lions are effectively looking at a moderately early fourth-round pick and a moderately late fifth-round pick. Given the Lions’ recent draft strategy, it is highly likely that with one or both of these picks, they will ignore positional needs entirely and go directly for the best player available.
If they do allow positional needs to be a factor, you can look for them to try stealing a linebacker or secondary player, since those represent the biggest current team needs.
I would also expect one of the later picks to be spent on an offensive line project, perhaps DeMarcus Love out of Arkansas. Detroit appears to be trying a “slow build” approach to overhauling the offensive line, and by all accounts, Jason Fox showed great improvement and upside over the 2010 season.
If Fox continues to round into shape, he could be grooming for Jeff Backus’ spot next season. Drafting Love (or another interior lineman) later on in the draft could do the same thing for Stephen Peterman, who is an average player, but an annual injury risk.
Bears Later Round Needs and Options
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Bryan: The Bears will look for other players in later rounds of the draft to help them out. Here are six additional players that Chicago could be interested in later on in the draft and are from their three need positions.
Demarcus Love, OG, Arkansas: A big bodied guy that needs some coaching, but could turn out to be a solid guard after a short amount of time.
John Moffitt, G/C, Wisconsin: Knowing just how well that the Wisconsin offensive line did in 2010 and how well their offensive linemen turn out in the NFL, the Bears may be willing to look at Moffitt. He can play both the guard and center position and this should appeal to the Bears.
Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State: Pettis could be one of the biggest sleepers of the 2011 NFL Draft at the wide receiver position. Chicago should pay close attention to this guy.
Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska: Paul is a very interesting prospect that should get a lot of looks from NFL scouts. The Bears should take a look at him as a possession receiver that can be a third down target.
Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida: McClain is another interesting option that the Bears may be interested in as he has the size that they like in their defensive tackles. He may be a bit of a sleeper in this draft and could contribute almost right away.
Packers Later Round Needs and Options
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Zach: With very few glaring weaknesses, the Packers can draft anyway they'd like, and that means picking the best available player at every selection.
However, if the Packers take an offensive tackle, outside linebacker and a receiver/returner in the first three rounds, Green Bay will have already covered many of its "needs."
The Packers could then look at taking a project cornerback or third down running back later on in the draft.
Cornerbacks Brandon Underwood and Pat Lee were counted on by the Packers to do more at the bottom of the depth chart than they showed, and either could be replaced by an incoming draft pick such as Brandon Burton or Kendric Burney.
If Brandon Jackson bolts in free agency, the Packers could nab Jacquizz Rodgers or Da'Rel Scott as a third down back to replace him.
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