Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Top Five SS Prospects for 2011

In articles such as this, many websites give readers a list of the best overall prospects at a given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects who are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact during the 2011 season; thus, a guy like Red Sox SS prospect Jose Iglesias—who is blocked at the big league level by Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie—is not on my list.

Here is my list of the five shortstop prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
2010 performance: .346, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 22 SB, 121 R (for the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nippon Professional Baseball)

Nishioka, 26, was the premier offensive player made available through Japan’s (outdated) posting system last year. The Twins bid $5.3 million for the right to negotiate with him, and then signed him to a three-year, $9 million contract. The switch-hitter is coming off a career-year. He won the NPB batting title with a .346 average, collecting 206 hits in 144 games (the highest hit total since OF Ichiro Suzuki in 1994).

With that said, his success in the United States is anything but assured. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out, he entered last season as a career .280 hitter (batting just .260 in ’09). His performance last year was fueled by a .395 BABIP, a number that is not sustainable over the long term...therefore, he is unlikely to repeat such a performance. “Yoshi” has averaged 28 stolen bases over his last seven seasons of play.

Nishioka will likely play both second base and shortstop for the Twins, though it is very possible he will eventually settle in at second base. Ultimately, the determining factor as to where he’ll end up over the long term is the performance of shortstop Alexi Casilla.

2. Zack Cozart, CIN
2010 performance: .255, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 30 SB, 91 R (at Triple-A Louisville)

There were pundits who felt Cozart might be able to break camp with the Reds in March, but that was before the front office signed free agent Edgar Renteria two weeks ago. So for now it looks like he will probably return to Louisville in an effort to improve on his 107-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio from last year.

But with Paul Janish (a career .226 hitter) and Renteria as the only impediments to his promotion to Cincinnati, it seems very likely he could make his Reds debut during the second half of the season.

Janish has a good glove, but he has registered a lowly .634 OPS over parts of three seasons with the Reds. Cozart has some power, plus he has excellent range, a good glove and a cannon for an arm. For these reasons, it’s plausible he could end up with the Reds anytime after July 1st. As with Grant Green, below, his prospects for a 2011 debut are intertwined with the team’s success.

3. Grant Green, OAK
2010 performance: .318, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 9 SB, 107 R (at Single-A Midland)

Green has drawn comparisons to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki and Tampa's Evan Longoria; but fantasy aficionados shouldn't get too excited - last year’s numbers were accumulated in the California League (the league where one-time Boston prospect Aaron Bates once hit .332 with 24 HR and 88 RBI before crashing back to Earth over the last couple of years).

The Athletics have Cliff Pennington (who hit .250 last year) and utilityman Adam Rosales (a career .241 hitter) ahead of Green on the depth chart -- so the road to Oakland may not be lengthy.

The A’s are desperate for offense and could be tempted by Green’s power potential if they have fallen out of the division race in the second half of the season. My gut instinct is that he’ll be overmatched in The Show should he get promoted, so caveat emptor!

4. Nick Franklin, SEA
2010 performance: .283, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 25 SB, 92 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A, primarily at High-A Clinton)

Franklin didn’t get a lot of respect as a prospect last winter coming off a season in which he hit just one home run in 63 AB, but he opened a lot of eyes last year by forging a 20-20 season for Clinton (A-ball)in the Midwest League (23 HR, 25 SB) - one of just three players to have a 20/20 season in the minors last year.

He will likely start 2011 in Double-A, where he ended last season. The folks at Baseball America seem to think he would be better off abandoning his effort as switch-hitting (he is much stronger from the left side of the plate). He wasn't initially expected to hit for a lot of power, but his performance last season has people hoping he wasn't a one-year-wonder. If he has a good first half in the Southern League, it's possible he could graduate to the major leagues as Josh Wilson is all that stands between him and a potential role in Seattle.

5. Drew Cumberland, Padres
2010 performance: .350, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB, 68 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A)

Cumberland grabbed scouts' attention by hitting .365 with 20 SBs for Class-A Lake Elsinore. Some pundits have suggested his stats are open to being questioned, as they were largely accumulated in the California League, but places like Lake Elsinore tend to increase home runs, not batting average.

He’ll return to San Antonio where he will be asked to work on his bunting and stolen base skills, but he could move up to San Diego in short order.