World Football: Championship Big Guns To Fall at Middlesbrough

Swansea City, Queens Park Rangers and Nottingham Forest are the next three home opponents for Middlesbrough as we look to climb further away from the relegation trap door. 

Given the league positions of these coming opponents (5th, 1st and 2nd) this will be a nightmare run for Boro that will be successful if we scrape together a few points and stay out of the bottom three before Derby County come to town. Or will it?

Football is not always as simple as one team is better than another overall so will win the game.  The best team will have the most league points at the end of the season, but not necessarily win a head to head battle, particularly away from home.

Middlesbrough are a good example of how a lesser team can consistently upset a more successful opponent.  The famous Arsenal ‘Invincibles’ who went unbeaten in Premier League play, were dumped out of the Carling Cup by Middlesbrough, while Manchester United’s legendary treble winning team of 1998/1999 lost a Premier League game to Boro at Old Trafford.

So why does this happen?  Why does a team that is displayed to be far superior by a league table fall to lower opposition?

Many common theories exist for this phenomenon.  The ‘go-to’ explanation by football fans usually revolves around the passion or energy level of the players.  “They don’t care enough,” will be the mantra of fans on the losing end, while “we just get up for it against bigger teams” will be triumphantly spouted by the winners.

Another theory is the mythical “bogey team,” a bogey team is the nightmare of football fans, players and managers.  A bogey team is a collection of players who as soon as they pull on their team's shirt and badge, become simply unbeatable by particular opposition. 

Indeed, some Middlesbrough fans may currently think that if you put 11 students, farmers and young children in a Cardiff City shirt then they would end up victorious against us.

The truth is there may just be some more concrete reason for Middlesbrough fans being optimistic about the coming three home games.  When you look at the strengths and weakness of the current Middlesbrough team, they actually match up better than expected against the front runners of the division. 

The strengths are the ability to pass the ball around and use composed build up play.  The full backs join the attack well and when we sustain possession then enough numbers get forward to cause problems for our opponents.

On the other hand, if we become involved in games that see possession change hands quickly and result in a physical back and forth we look far less assured.  If we need to score by lightning strike attacks in short periods of possession, Boro do not appear to have the pace to pull that off.  If we can string passes together and allow fullbacks and extra midfielders in the attack, it is a different story.

These coming three teams appear to have similar strengths, and it is fair to expect that the ball will be on the ground and both teams will look to patiently build up play.  For this reason, it is not unreasonable to think that Boro will do pretty well.  While a player like Robbie Savage could destroy our plan when we have the ball, the likes of Leon Britton, Adel Taarabt and Lewis McGugan are far more lightweight defensively.  Guy Moussi would have been a concern, but he is ruled out for the remainder of the season with injury.

The only downside is positive results from the coming three games will not necessarily mean all the problems are fixed, nor will it bring with it a guarantee of more success next year.  We still need to add some pace and work on defensive steel, including from set pieces. 

For that reason, do not be surprised if we beat these three teams and get beat at Millwall.

This article appears in acclaimed Middlesbrough fanzine 'Fly Me To The Moon.'

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