NBA Power Rankings: Overrated and Underrated, Ranking the Teams by Perception
Are the Miami Heat underrated or overrated? How about the Orlando Magic, the Boston Celtics or the Los Angeles Lakers? How do you know?
It got me to thinking which teams are better than perceived and which ones are not better than perceived. Furthermore, how do you measure?
Well, the best way to look at common perception in my opinion is the betting public. As a general rule, it's a reasonably knowledgeable group that feels strongly enough about their opinion to lay down money on it. It's a good measure of the knowledgeable fan's perception.
Seeing as how this is literally where we get the notion of underrated and overrated, it seemed the best way to come up with an objective measure. Therefore, the teams that have the worst records against the spread are the most "overrated" and the best records are "underrated." So without further ado, starting with the most underrated, here are the overrated/underrated rankings.ย
30: Washington Wizards
1 of 30
Record ATS: 18-31 (.367)
Washington is in a similar boat and are only one game better than the Cavaliers. Just in case you're wondering, their record ATS on the road is 7-18. At least they "win" there. Am I the only one hoping for the two streaks to continue until the Washington at Cleveland game?
29: Cleveland Cavaliers
2 of 30
Record ATS: 17-30-2 (.380)
It's hard to believe Cleveland can actually be the second most overrated team as bad as they are, but they are. However, if itmakes you feel any better, they won their last game against the spread. No streaks here, just keep moving folks.ย
28: Sacramento Kings
3 of 30
Record ATS: 19-27-1 (.415)
Did you ever think you'd see a ranking where the Kings were over the Lakers? ย They're still pretty far down to be calling themselves "Kings" though. How come LeBron is the only one to get a rap about that? Tyreke Evans has been coming on strong lately though, and perhaps, he can turn things around, if not on the scoreboard, at least in terms of righting the ATS ship.ย
27: Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 30
Record ATS: 21-29 (.420)
The Lakers' struggles are very visible in this light. They clearly aren't playing at the same level that they did last year. While there are plenty of people who are ready to say they can turn it on come playoff time and the regular season doesn't matter, the Boston Celtics proved that last year. It's funny the Celtics learned the opposite lesson.ย
26: Orlando Magic
5 of 30
Record ATS: 21-27-3 (.441)
Clearly people are giving the Magic more respect than they deserve. Did they trade for muggles? In the last two losses by the Magic, I've seen the same strategy was employedโattack Turkoglu. Seems effective. It will be interesting to see how much this group comes together before they get to the playoffs.
25: Minnesota Timberwolves
6 of 30
Record ATS: 22-27-0 (.449)
Kevin Love made the All-Star Game after all. Some people think Stern made the right choice, and some think he made the wrong choice. Personally, I'm not sure why people think you have to be on a winning team to be a star. Does anyone really believe that Minnesota and Boston would trade records if Love and Garnett traded teams? This whole "winning" thing gets silly at a certain point.ย
24: Toronto Raptors
7 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 22-27-2 (.451)
DeMar DeRozan has been looking better lately. The Chicago Bulls have noticed and inquired about him, but the Raptors told them they weren't interested in trading him. Are he and Andrea Barganni enough to start building a team around or should they have taken the deal? Time will tell.ย
T22: Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 22-26-2 (.460)
The big question here is the same as it has always been. Will 'Melo stay or good? The distraction has not been good for the Nuggets which is probably a big part of the reason they have a losing record against the spread.ย
T22: Atlanta Hawks
9 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 23-27 (.460)
I probably would have listed the Hawks as underrated if I were doing this just out of my perception. It seems they don't get as much as respect as they deserve, but according to this, they perhaps get a little too much? Maybe it's the roller coaster that makes them seem like both. Are they the team that beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City by 23 or the team that got blown out by 41 by the Hornets at home? Yes.ย
21: Utah Jazz
10 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 23-27-1 (.461)
The Jazz are another team that's tough to get a handle on. Right when I start thinking they could be a real contender, they go on a losing streak. You'd like to write off the recent struggles to Williams' injuries, but he was there for a lot of the losses. Their 12-14 record against teams over .500 is raising questions about their postseason viability.ย
20: New Jersey Nets
11 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 24-27-0 (.471)
The Nets aren't the best of teams anyway, but the amount of distractions they have to deal with for a losing team is not helping. Perhaps that was why they put a thumping on Denver when they came through. Anthony brought it on himself; none of the Nets asked for any of this. It's amazing they are even close to .500 ATS considering all they've gone through.ย
T18: Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
Record ATS: 20-23-3 (.457)
They've been something of a disappointment this season. Fans, and apparently ownership, were expecting more. That explains the coaching change. You can't help but wonder if the new regime is going to mean new starters. If you're a fantasy player, keep your eye on this team as there is plenty of potential waiver wire material here.ย
T18: Milwaukee Bucks
13 of 30
๏ปฟ๏ปฟRecord ATS: 22-24-1 (.479)
With all the injuries they've been experiencing, it's hard to know which Bucks are going to suit up from night to night. Brandon Jennings is finally back, and now, Andrew Bogut is out. Is Milwaukee the most disappointing team this season?
T15: Charlotte Bobcats
14 of 30
๏ปฟ๏ปฟRecord ATS: 23-24-2 (.490)
They've been a different team since the coaching change. As of now, they'd be a playoff team. If you're looking for a team to finish strong, this is a team to keep an eye onโthe Bobcats. They're loosened up and energized. There's been less trade talk and more playoff talk lately, and they should fulfill it.ย
T15: Boston Celtics
15 of 30
๏ปฟ๏ปฟRecord ATS: 23-24-2 (.490)
Boston is the second of three teams tied for 15th. That sort of puts them as neither overrated nor underrated, as does their record against the spread. They're just rated? Considering how highly they are thought of, that's saying something. They are living up to very high expectations.ย
T15: Miami Heat
16 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 24-25-1 (.490)
Miami is the third of a three-way tie for 15th.ย That sort of puts them as neither overrated nor underrated, as does their record against the spread. They're just rated? Considering how highly they are thought of, that's saying something. They are living up to very high expectations. Sound familiar?
14: Portland Trail Blazers
17 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 23-23-4 (.500)
Here's an argument for contraction, albeit different. How about if the Trail Blazers and Brewers are contracted into a single team? Not because they can't support a team but maybe combined maybe they could put a fully healthy team on the court. The Blazers have had to deal with this for two straight years now. When is it going to end? You have to give them credit for what they'v done in spite of it all this year.ย
13: Oklahoma City Thunder
18 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 25-24-0 (.510)
The thing about Oklahoma City is with all the preseason hype there were a lot of people beginning to think they were getting overrated. Would you believe they are underrated? They are the first team in the rankings who are over .500 against the spread and therefore worthy of "underrated" status. Russell Westbrook has been getting people's attention all season, and now, MVP candidate Kevin Durrant is setting the world on fire.ย
T11: New Orleans Hornets
19 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 26-23-2 (.529)
The Hornets were written off as an afterthought this preseason. Then they torched to an 11-1 start before settling into some struggles. Then right when you were ready to write them off again, they go on a 10-game tear. And now, they've lost three of four. Talk about confusing! On the whole though, they've been better than what we thought they were and have a winning record against the spread.ย
T11: Houston Rockets
20 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 26-23-2 (.529)
Houston is a mess. I don't know what else to say. They bring the effort, and they play the big dogs close, but let's be honest, they lost their big dogs. You can say it's not the size of the dog in the fight but the fight in the dog. But when your dog is a 6' 6" center, you just need to get a bigger dog.ย
10: Los Angeles Clippers
21 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 25-22-2 (.531)
The Clippers are doing pretty well against the spread, but I can't wonder how much longer that's going to last. The way they just turned the page on their season so fast probably caught a lot of people off guard. Could they actually make a transition from underrated to overrated or do they actually have what it takes to work their way into a playoff hunt? Whichever is the case, Blake Griffin's going to be worth watching for a long time.ย
9: Chicago Bulls
22 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 22-19-0 (.542)
Most would have been surprised if they had the same record healthy, but having this record with substantial time missed by both Boozer and Naoh leaves it as no surprise that the Bulls are in the top 10 of the most underrated teams. It looks like Noah's first game back will be the first game after the All-Star break. It should be interesting to see what this team looks like when healthy.ย
8: Dallas Mavericks
23 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 24-20-4 (.542)
After struggling with Nowitzki out and even a few games after he returned, the Mavericks are starting to get rolling again and are quietly on a seven-game winning streak, including last night's game in Boston. The division title might be pretty much out of reach, but they can still claim the Conference's second best record. Dallas is definitely exceeding expectations this year.ย
7: Golden State Warriors
24 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 26-22-0 (.542)
Golden State is "only" seven games under .500. Against the spread, they are four games over tough. In essence, they don't suck quite as bad as people think they do, but they do suck. They've got a nice young duo to build on though in Curry and Ellis, provided they don't' trade away Curry.ย
6: Detroit Pistons
25 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 27-22-1 (.550)
It's hard to think of Detroit as underrated. I mean how much can you "underrate" a .360 team? Hard to say. But they are .550 against the spread, and they did beat Orlando. If nothing else, at least the resurrection of McGrady is intriguing. There have been rumblings of a Rip Hamilton buyout. If there is, could he end the season a Bull?
5: Phoenix Suns
26 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 21-16-1 (.566)
Everyone keeps trying to get Nash traded off to someone. Everyone except for Nash and Phoenix that is. For some reason, no one wants to believe them though. The Suns are only two-and-a-half games out of the playoff picture though. While they've been a bit up and down this season, they still believe they can make a playoff run. They won't be moving Nash.ย
4: Memphis Grizzlies
27 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 31-19-1 (.618)
Looks like that promise to be a playoff team might come true after all. Has anyone noticed that the Grizzlies are actually three games over .500? As crazy as this might sound, they're even 11th in Hollinger's rankings and what might sound even crazier is that that isn't as crazy as it sounds. The Griz are this year's Thunder.ย
3: San Antonio Spurs
28 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 30-18-2 (.620)
See what happens when their big three stay healthy? Everyone keeps waiting for this particular bubble to pop, but the only "Pop" we're seeing is Coach Pop running away with the coach of the year. It's definitely looking like any prospective champions are going to have to go through San Antonio, where the Spurs have only lost twice all season.ย ย
2: New York Knicks
29 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 30-17-2 (.633)
Of all the teams in the NBA, this one surprised me the most. With all the hype about the Knicks being "relevant" again and the recent struggles, I would have expected this one to come out the other way. The facts show otherwise though as the Knicks are the second best team against the spread and arguably the second most underrated.ย
1: Philadelphia 76ers
30 of 30
๏ปฟRecord ATS: 31-17-1 (.643)
And who would believe this? The 76ers are the most underrated team in the NBA. Considering the resurgence (albeit marginal) of Elton Brand) and the breakout year form Jrue Holiday combined with the recent return to self by Andre Iguodala, it's not surprising though. The 76ers are only three games under .500, claiming the seventh playoff seed in the east, and surprisingly, chasing down the Knicks for No. 6. Will the 76ers go from "7 to 6 er" not? Like the way I did that?
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