New York Mets' Minor League System: An Interview With MiLB Expert John Sickels
As we get closer and closer to Spring Training, fans will begin to hear about some of the younger players that have a chance to make an impact in the majors next season. Once Spring Training actually starts, fans will see lots of players that they have never heard of before.
I wanted to provide you, the fans, with as much information as we could about the both the Mets farm system, and the minor leagues in general. To do this, I spoke with expert.
John Sickels wrote for ESPN.com from 1996 until 2005. He wrote a column entitled “Down on the Farm” which provided a look into the minor leagues. John currently has his own blog, Minor League Ball. On his site, John takes looks at individual prospects and team’s farm systems, in addition to a daily analysis of what occurred in the minors. I am an avid reader of the site and I advise everyone to check it out. Click here to read Minor League Ball.
In addition, John also writes for Rotowire.com. John also wrote a biography of pitching start Bob Feller entitled, Bob Feller: Ace of the Greatest Generation. Every year John puts out a book profiling roughly 1,000 minor leaguers. It includes the prospects stats, a brief overview and scouting report on the player, and grades for every player. It is a must read for any baseball fan and it is considered to be one of the most prominent prospect books. CLICK HERE TO ORDER BASEBALL PROSPECT BOOK 2011 (BPB 2011) BY JOHN SICKELS.
Evaluation
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B/R: What metric is most useful in determining what players can become future stars for both hitters and pitchers?
John: Well, I don’t believe in looking at a single metric. People have been looking for a “magic stat” since they first began tracking baseball stats 100 years ago, but I don’t think there is one, at least not for projecting future performance. I look at just about every number I can to get a broad objective view of a player, but I think projection for minor league prospects is more of an art than a science.
One key is to look at what the player has done within the context in which he is playing. For example, the league OPS in the California League last year was .767, but in the Carolina League it was .718. A guy with a .800 OPS in the Carolina League has had a better year than a guy with the same number in the Cal League. So with any number, I think it is critical to look at the league context, park factors, etc. But there are just so many things that go into it, it can’t be boiled down to one metric for either pitchers or hitters, and there are things such as physical projection and tools that can’t be understood with a numeric metric anyway. Traditional scouting is extremely important and always will be. Performance analysis isn’t enough.
Right Field
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B/R: Do you see an outfielder emerging in the Mets system to solidify the RF position for the next several years?
John: Fernando Martinez still has a chance, and both Sean Ratliff and Kirk Nieuwenhuis could/should get chances. Long-term Cory Vaughn could slot there. I don’t see any of these guys as sure-fire stars who will definitely solidify the position. All have significant questions, but there are at least some options.
System Depth
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B/R: Do you see the overall depth in the Mets system being capable of making deals with prospects to spare like the Phillies did with Roy Halladay?
John: I see the Mets as having a below average farm system at this point. They have some interesting players certainly, but even their best prospect (Wilmer Flores) has some question-marks and isn’t a certain impact player. He has the natural ability to be one, but there are a lot of questions about what his development path will look like, what position he will play, etc.. He is so young he could develop in any number of ways.
The system will look better a year from now if players such as Matt Harvey, Vaughn, Aderlin Rodriguez, or Juan Urbina can live up to their full potential, Harvey in particular. They have a few prospects that would interest other teams, but they are not dealing from depth, and that limits their trade options.
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Fernando Martinez
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B/R: Do you see Fernando Martinez as a bust, even though at age 21 he was still able to hold his own as one of the youngest players in the International League or is he still capable of breaking out in the majors?
John: It is much too soon to conclude that Martinez is a bust. He is still just 22 years old and has shown he can succeed in Triple-A. He is still capable of becoming a major league regular, although I see him as more of a solid guy now than a future star. His power has developed, but his inability to stay healthy and problems with plate discipline look like they could keep him from living up to his maximum potential. But yes, he is still capable of breaking out, though perhaps a change of scenery will help.
Closer
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B/R: Do you see the Mets having a player emerge in the system as a premier closer?
John: I don’t see anyone who fits the classic profile as a premier closer, but there are guys available who can help in relief and could pick up some saves…Manuel Alvarez, Pedro Beato, Jose De La Torre, Ryan Fraser. I could see Kyle Allen or Brad Holt becoming relievers eventually…both have been starters thus far, but seem like they could be candidates for conversion. Jeurys Familia perhaps as well as a conversion possibility.
Ace
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B/R: Do you see any players in their system other than Mejia emerging as a potential ace?
John: Harvey is the best candidate although we need to see how he adapts to pro ball. There are live arms like Familia who have the stuff to do it, but not the polish right now. Scouts think Urbina has a lot of projectability but he is a long way off.
Jenrry Mejia
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B/R: What were your thoughts on how the Mets handled Mejia last year and do you think it will negatively impact his career path?
John: Well, it could impact his career, although considering the circumstances I think he handled himself pretty well last year. Although it might not hurt him in the long run, I think the Mets were stupid to use him as they did. He should have been in Double-A working on his secondary pitches, not opening the year in the major league pen. All it did was burn service time and keep him from getting what he needed most, consistent innings and experience. The move made absolutely no sense to me at all.
Sleepers
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B/R: What prospects do you see as sleepers for the Mets?
John: I think Eric Campbell has sleeper potential as a complementary role player. Darrell Ceciliani has intriguing speed and gap power, though he’ll need to tighten the strike zone at higher levels. Matt Dan Dekker from the ’10 draft could be a fine fourth outfielder. Brad Emaus selected from the Jays in Rule 5 could be quite a surprise. Right-hander Erik Goeddel out of UCLA in the ’10 draft is an arm to watch. Armando Rodriguez has great metrics but scouts are less impressed, but if the numbers hold at higher levels he’ll sneak up on people. If Reese Havens can ever stay healthy, he’s got the skills to rise quickly too. There isn’t a shortage of sleepers here, they just need to wake up.
NL East
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B/R: How would you rank the teams in the NL East's farm systems in terms of the division as well as the MLB?
John: I rank the NL East farm systems like this, from best to worst: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington, New York, Florida. I think the best two farm systems in the game are Kansas City and Tampa, and the worst two are Houston and Milwaukee.
Luis Heredia and Adonis Cardona
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B/R: How can you project prospects like Luis Heredia and Adonis Cardona when they are so young and there is so little data available about them?
John: I tend to be extremely conservative about players like that. I want to see how they perform when they actually get to North America. Even a high school player from the US or Canada is easier to project, for me at least, than the Latin American guys who haven’t faced the same kind of competition when young.
Top Prospects
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B/R: What prospects do you think will make the biggest impact in the majors this season?
John: I think Jeremy Hellickson and Aroldis Chapman are both well-positioned to make an impact, though Chapman’s role is uncertain. Hellickson is ready for the Tampa rotation, and the Rays have other strong rookies including Desmond Jennings and Jake McGee. I really like Domonic Brown in Philadelphia although he may have some short-term adjustment issues. Mike Minor in Atlanta is a good bet for success as rookie pitchers go. Many of the other top prospects are a year away.
Overrated
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B/R: What prospects do you believe are overrated and why?
John: I don’t want to use the word “overrated” but I think expectations are unrealistically high for Casey Kelly in the short term.
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