Mel Kiper Big Board: Setting the Bust Odds for Kiper's Top 25 Prospects
The 2011 NFL Draft will produce some of the future stars of the league.
Who is the next Peyton Manning? The can't-miss prospect that will prosper in the league for the next decade plus.
Who is the next Ryan Leaf? The alleged can't-miss prospect that turns out to be a horrible flop in the NFL and is shamed out of the league.
Both situations are out there and figuring it out is no easy task. Here is a breakdown of the top 25 players on Mel Kiper's mock draft's chances of being a bust.
We go from least likely to most likely.
25. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn: 35/1
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Fairley is the safest pick because of his explosive burst, ability to effectively penetrate and be a constant producer against both the run and pass; he has the chance to be a dominant player in any scheme or system.
He had an outstanding BCS Championship game and has shown no reason to doubt him. The likely top pick is going to make the Carolina Panthers very happy.
24. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: 30/1
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Kiper says Peterson has "the best size-speed combo in the draft" and he is an "electrifying talent."
Nobody in the top five could go wrong with Peterson. He has the ability to not only start in the NFL right away, but make an immediate impact.
Peterson has great hands and has the potential to lead the league in INTs at some point. He will be a can't-miss prospect that, odds are, will be a superb NFL player.
23. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado: 25/1
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The ogre from Colorado is a sure thing. His combination of athleticism and strength projects to the NFL.
His height works in favor when facing smaller, quicker defensive ends. His superior athleticism and above-average strength give Solder a very good chance to be a longtime starting NFL tackle.
The top OL in the draft is a safe bet.
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22. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: 25/1
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The best playmaker in the draft is as sure a thing as Calvin Johnson was for the Lions.
He has the size and skills to be an effective offensive player for any squad in the NFL right now. Green posses the complete package, with size, speed and solid route-running skills.
He missed the first four games of the season and still hauled in nine touchdowns and 771 yards.
He is going to be a star in the NFL.
21. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson: 25/1
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Bowers is going to be a beast in the NFL and will be a mainstay DE for the next decade in the NFL.
The 6'4", 275-pound, athletic end had 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks this year. He fits the mold of Dwight Freeney and any team would love to have him.
The odds of him not panning out are pretty slim.
20. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina: 20/1
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Quinn sat out the entire 2010 season and that has potential bust written all over him.
But he had 11 sacks as a sophomore and has the potential to be one of the top sack leaders in the league some day.
Quinn has the most to gain/lose in the upcoming combine. His status is completely up in the air, but a good showing will land him at this spot.
The biggest boom or bust pick in the entire draft.
19. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama: 18/1
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Jones is a huge target that is capable of making plenty of plays at the NFL level.
A top recruit coming out of high school, Jones has been a star for a while now and can handle the spotlight at the pro level.
He is explosive, strong and able to play with nagging injuries.
No doubt Jones will be a great player in the NFL.
18. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College: 15/1
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He's stellar at staying in front of pass rushers and he does a great job of shifting his feet.
Castonzo has been starting on the Boston College offensive line since his freshman season. The experience factor is huge for a team that needs an OT to play right away.
Another OL that has the experience to be a factor in the NFL right away.
17. Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida: 15/1
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Pouncey can play in a variety of positions along the offensive line. He is 6’4” and 310 pounds, muscular and athletic.
His older brother had a great season with the Steelers and all signs point to Mike being a great pro as well.
A great value pick later in the first round.
16. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: 15/1
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Ingram had an almost perfect '09 season that led him to a championship and Heisman. In '10, his team didn't live up to lofty expectations—yet Ingram still produced great numbers despite a prolonged knee injury.
He rushed for 816 yards and 11 TDs after missing the first two games of the season.
He is capable of being a 300 carries a year back that will be one of the top 10 running backs in the league soon.
15. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA: 15/1
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He is a outstanding athlete with the skills to play any of the linebacker positions. He has great close-out speed and can hunt down the fastest NFL running backs.
He is extremely polished and can be an effective NFL player from Day 1. He has pretty low odds of being a bust.
14. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska: 15/1
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The outstanding instincts, ball skills and anticipation of Amukamara are top-notch and worthy of a top-10 selection.
He posses stand-out ball skills and has shut down some of the best players in the Big 12 this season. Teams are high on him because of his ability to contribute right away.
He is the surest thing CB in the draft after Peterson.
13. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M: 15/1
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A excellent edge-rusher that can get to the quarterback, but can also drop into zone coverage, where his speed and awareness at the position shine.
The 2010 Butkus Award winner and 2009 first-team All-American, Miller was the Big 12 sack leader for the second straight year with 9.5 sacks in 2010.
He was clearly the most dynamic pass rusher in Mobile this week at the Senior Bowl.
Miller can help a team right away and should be in the league for awhile.
12. Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama: 15/1
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At 6'2" and 300 lbs, he is the prototypical size for a defensive tackle in the NFL. Dareus was the guy who knocked Colt McCoy out of the BCS National Championship game in 2010.
This season he got suspended and had his ups and downs throughout the fall.
Dareus is a boom-bust because of inconsistent play, but when he's on, he has played like a potential top-three pick.
11. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin: 12/1
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He has dominated against other highly regarded prospects and has proven to be an incredible run blocker.
He is the anchor of an offensive line that allowed 12 sacks in 12 games and was the 12th-best rushing attack in college football.
Most O-line first-round picks pan out, and Carimi will follow that trend.
10. Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal: 12/1
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Jordan is a intelligent defensive end who comes off the ball low and displays excellent strength at the point of attack.
He takes the proper angles and continues to improve his technique.
Jordan is a safe pick to be a NFL player for years to come and his genes help him out as well.
His dad was a six-time Pro Bowl tight end, and Cameron is one of the most athletic players at his position thanks in part to good genes.
9. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri: 12/1
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Hmmm...this guy is a risky pick.
Gabbert declared after his junior year and never really dominated the college level.
Gabbert offers a strong arm, prototype size and has a lot of upside. But the odds are high he is a bust.
8. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State: 10/1
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He is strong and can be extremely physical.
Paea won the 2010 Morris Award for the top defensive lineman in the Pac-10 after winning the award in '09 as well. He recorded 45 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and six sacks this season.
He has a great work ethic and I would bet on him to succeed in the NFL.
7. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: 10/1
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The 6'6" Watt is seemingly always penetrating the backfield for tackles.
He has a full arsenal of moves but the subpar speed and stamina hurt.
He is more likely to be a bust than a few picks after him.
6. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa: 10/1
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Clayborn can play defensive tackle and clog the interior, or as an end that can put pressure on the opponent's QB.
His versatility should be intriguing enough for a mid-first round pick.
This is pretty high for a guy with a few red flags in his past; if he can stay on the field he should be a safe pick.
5. Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri: 10/1
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The speedy 6'5", 260-pound Smith has great size and a huge wingspan. For his two-year career at Mizzou, Smith collected 112 tackles, including 29 for loss, and 17 sacks.
His numbers are excellent, but the redshirt sophomore is still very inexperienced.
Two years of college, and now he is expected to produce in the NFL right away?
Not convinced of that.
4. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue: 8/1
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Kerrigan had 210 career tackles at Purdue to go with 13 sacks.
The potential for Kerrigan is very hard to gauge. He had a four-sack game against Michigan and was able to record 10 or more tackles in three games this past season.
Yet he was rarely present in about three games for the Boilermakers.
He is a tough player to figure out and that's not exactly a good thing for bust potential.
3. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn: 8/1
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Newton went from relatively unknown, to most talked-about player in the country this college football season, but expect the combine to expose the flaws in Newton's game.
His arm motion needs to be adjusted for the pro game and the overwhelming odds point in favor of a serious injury at some point.
Will he be able to fit into a West Coast offense as a pocket passer?
How many coaches are wiling to change their whole offense to cater to Newton?
2. Justin Houston, DE, Georgia: 4/1
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He uses his long arms and superior quickness to evade O-lineman en route to the QB.
So there is no doubt he is a good prospect, but a can't-miss first round selection that will be a mainstay?
Can't comfortably answer that question with a yes.
1. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas: 3/1
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Mallett is the hardest player to figure out in the whole draft. His physical attributes are of a top-10 selection but he seems to be missing something that most successful QBs have.
His Sugar Bowl performance didn't really help, and now the combine will be a huge event for him.
He has shown immaturity over his college tenure and has been considered distant from his teammates.
He isn't the leader that's necessary at the pro level his odds of being a bust are dangerously high. Combine that with a weak mental makeup and watch out.
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