American League East Standings: Bold Predictions for 2011
While it is not unusual for teams in the American League East to be busy in the offseason, usually most of the bigger moves are limited to the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.
It wasn't the case this winter, with all five teams shaking their teams up, adding and subtracting pieces to compete in the maelstrom that is this division.
How the teams fared in free agency as well as who they retained in arbitration will greatly impact their success this coming season, but as always there are successes and flops, and those built for the long season will find themselves in the playoffs.
Boston Red Sox Should Win Division with New Additions Crawford and Gonzalez
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Boston Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had a very busy winter, and one that few would debate is a crowning success. Built around their incredibly strong rotation, the team decided to upgrade its offense by landing Carl Crawford, the most coveted position player in free agency.
They also decided to trade for one of the premier sluggers in the game in Adrian Gonzalez, a powerful hitter who has put up impressive numbers despite having little protection in the San Diego Padres lineup.
Crawford is a sublimely talented ballplayer who had the ability to change the direction of a game with any number of his skills. Last year he won both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards at his position, finished third in the AL in stolen bases with 47 and ninth in the AL with a .307 batting average.
Crawford's skill at reading the play should allow him to handle the Green Monster at Fenway both offensively and defensively, and his new teammates might allow him to reach new heights at the plate.
Gonzalez has hit no fewer than 30 home runs and 99 RBI the past four seasons, and is still only 28 years old. His powerful left-handed swing should thrive in the confines of Fenway Park and makes an already formidable lineup even more impressive.
They lost Adrian Beltre to free agency, but the additions of Gonzalez and Crawford and the return to health of Jacoby Ellsbury should more than make up for it.
Finally, they also improved their strong bullpen as well with the addition of Bobby Jenks, the former closer with the Chicago White Sox.
If the Red Sox play up to the potential of their team on paper, they should be able to win the division.
New York Yankees Have Weak Offseason, But Lineup Strong Enough for Second
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Some would say that the Yankees have had a horrible offseason. They lost out in their pursuit of Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford, both to teams that made the American League playoffs last year. They have waited all winter for Andy Pettitte to decide whether he was going to re-sign, and may have lost out on other free agents due to the indecision.
They did sign one of the best pitchers available in Rafael Soriano, but as a set-up man to their longtime closer Mariano Rivera. Their GM, Brian Cashman, was against the signing but was overruled by the owner of the Yankees.
The core that the Yankees have built their team around are getting older; Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez are not the players they once were, but they are still formidable. In fact, the Yankees batting order can go toe to toe with any in the league and be compared favorably, especially with the huge talents of Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.
Their pitching rotation is the weak spot.
With Pettitte set to retire, it exposes the gaping holes in the rotation caused by their lack of success over the winter.
They have a true ace in Sabathia; no one would question the talents of their premiere starter and what he is capable of. He nearly single-handedly took Milwaukee in the playoffs when he was traded mid-season and went 11-2 for them with a 1.65 ERA.
The problem is what happens after Sabathia.
A.J. Burnett has been consistently inconsistent since coming over from the Blue Jays, last year recording the most losses and worst ERA of his career. Phil Hughes is undeniably talented, and broke out last year, but it is still very early into his career and he could struggle as he did at times last year.
Finally, Sergio Mitre has a 13-29 career record and Ivan Nova has only started seven games in his career. They recently picked up Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia to also compete for rotation spots—not exactly intimidating names at this point in time.
Hardly a rotation that guarantees success, if it weren't for the batting of the Yankees they might be lower in the projection than finishing second in the division. There is also the question of the Yankees money, if they struggle they will likely attempt to remedy the situation by throwing money at it.
Toronto Blue Jays Stay the Course on Rebuild, But Still Good Enough for Third
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The Toronto Blue Jays were better than a lot of people expected in 2010, but their 85 wins in the American League were still only good enough for fourth.
They swatted a league-leading 257 home runs, but they struggled to find offense when the long ball wasn't working. What kept them in a lot of games was their impressive young pitching staff of Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil. Marcum was dealt to Milwaukee in the offseason for high end prospect Brett Lawrie, which is a strong bet for the future, but they lose their opening day starter from last year.
Going into 2011, the Jays are looking to see what they have. They have more young pitchers competing for a starting spot, and they have a couple of new faces in new places that may have to adjust.
Triple-A MVP J.P. Arencibia is going to get a shot behind the plate, looking to prove that he can call a strong game and connect with the young staff.
Rajai Davis has speed to burn on the basepaths and has taken over center field for the departed Vernon Wells. Davis certainly doesn't replace Wells in the power department, but may serve the Jays well in the leadoff spot, as long as his OBP percentage improves.
Adam Lind, the designated hitter Silver Slugger award winner from 2009, will attempt to regain his form by returning to the field at first base. Lyle Overbay departed in free agency, so Lind will take over the majority of the starts, with Edwin Encarnacion filling in occasionally.
Encarnacion struggled with errors throwing from third last year, so the move across the infield will allow him to concentrate on just catching the ball on defense and using his impressive power to contribute offensively.
Finally, the Jays will need last year's home run king Jose Bautista to continue his slugging for the team to flourish. Bautista has become one of the leaders of the club with the departure of Wells, and will need to be both a presence in the dugout as well as at the plate.
A lot of things will need to go right for the Jays to surpass their win total from last year, or even match it, but the main goal is to get all the parts working for 2012 and see what they have. They may not challenge this year, but they could be a force in the AL East in the near future.
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Tampa Bay Rays Lose Free Agents and Bullpen, But Starters Will Stop the Freefall
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Is is unfortunate to see the Tampa Bay Rays unable to afford the stars they had built through their impressive farm system. It hurts even more when one of those departing players is Carl Crawford, who led the team in average and steals, and he leaves to join your AL East rivals the Red Sox.
Along with Crawford, the Rays also lost their home run leader Carlos Pena to free agency, two of their most potent offensive weapons.
Trying to compensate for this, they signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, players very familiar with the AL East. For a relative bargain, they have a chance to reap the benefits if both players can play up to their capabilities.
Otherwise they are left with remaining star Evan Longoria to lead a collection of struggling position players and up-and-coming rookies to power their offense.
The other painful loss for the Rays is the almost complete replacement of their bullpen, since Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Joaquin Benoit and Dan Wheeler all left through free agency. Their former closer Soriano, who led the league in saves, left to go to the Yankees.
Benoit, Choate and Balfour, who were fifth, 12th and 16th in the AL in holds respectively, all left the Rays to seek their fortune elsewhere.
Finally, 15-game winner Matt Garza was traded to the Chicago Cubs, further depleting their pitching staff.
The Rays will be saved from plummeting in the standings though by their quality pitching rotation, led by young ace David Price and fierce competitor James Shields. They may be weakened by losing Garza, but they have so many quality arms in their system that someone else will step up.
This projection of the Rays for is the one that could be disproved quickly, but what they lost suggests they will drop to fourth.
On the plus side, they have a smart management group, one that has learned how to compete in this division, and they are stacked with young prospects who have a chance to impact the team right away.
Even if they do fall to fourth, it likely won't be for long.
Baltimore Orioles Have Improved Offense, But Pitching Will Keep Them in Fifth
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The Baltimore Orioles had a busy winter, and their depth chart shows the difference.
Their new infield boasts power at each corner with Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee, who hit 51 home runs between them last year. Reynolds is both a threat with his power and his speed, but he will need to bring up his average from a career worst .198 average to be effective.
J.J. Hardy is the new shortstop. With a .423 career slugging percentage he also is capable of power, but only hit six home runs last year in 101 games.
Brian Roberts returns at second base, and if he can return to playing injury-free baseball can easily rack up 30 stolen bases or more.
But the infield won't be enough to carry this team offensively. They will need their young core of Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones to step up. All three have shown their great potential, but will need to contribute consistently for this team to ever make it out of the AL East bottom.
They will get veteran help in Luke Scott in the designated hitter position, hoping to match his 27 home runs and 72 RBI from 2010.
So it seems offense shouldn't be a big problem for the Orioles this year, but pitching could be another story.
Their starters all had a losing record last year, and their top two of Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz only had a combined 21 wins. Matusz is young, and could be a future ace, but isn't there yet.
Brad Bergensen, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman round out the rotation, but only have about 500 innings of experience between all of them.
It was also just announced that the Orioles have signed Justin Duchscherer, who could provide a veteran presence in the rotation if he can remain healthy.
The pitching will be shaky, including the new heart attack inducing closer Kevin Gregg, so it will be up to the offense to grind out some wins. The Orioles have a chance to surprise if a lot of things go right, but it will take contributions from everyone to gain ground in the AL East.
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