Oregon State-USC: Beavers Look to Pull Upset at Home

If someone would have told me two weeks ago, after the Penn State game, that Oregon State had a chance against USC, I would have told them they were nuts.  A week later, after a blowout of an inferior opponent, and that's exactly what people are saying. 

USC is the No. 1 team in the country in both the USA Today Coaches' Poll and the AP Poll.  They are undefeated and just beat an overrated but still good Ohio State team in what was supposed to be a competitive game, but that USC blew open.

Oregon State hasn't even garnered a vote in two weeks, which is right because they are 1-2.

Where does that leave us? Let's get down to the game.

USC offense vs. OSU defense

On paper this looks like a USC blowout, and I think it will be.  USC has too many weapons.  Mark Sanchez will find Joe McKnight or C.J. Gable either on a handoff or pass out of the backfield or slot.

OSU's defense will play an inspired first half and hold USC close by blitzing and staying true to their coverage.  Also, USC will try to run the ball more in the first half, and OSU will be prepared for that.

In the second half, however, USC's talent and experience will come out, and they will begin to throw the ball more and wear out OSU's secondary.  Once that happens, it's BOMBS AWAY!—and the score starts piling up for USC. 

OSU offense vs. USC defense

This is the intriguing matchup to me.  On paper (and according to NFL scouts and College Football Analysts) USC has the best defense in the country and has multiple first round draft picks.  OSU is young on the offensive line, and they haven't been the best at blocking the defensive line or linebackers in two of the three games.

But this is where I think OSU keeps it close for a while.  The offensive line blocks well, Quizz Rodgers has some success running the ball, and the receivers and Lyle Moevao have success going downfield.

However, once it hits the fourth quarter, the success starts to dry up as USC's defense plays to cut the throat off OSU's success by playing a nickel defense.

OSU special teams vs. USC special teams

Special teams, as they say, is where the game can be won.  OSU has struggled in the punting game, and while I think Johnny Hekker will get every punt off, I think he shanks one or two, allowing USC easy field position.

However, I think OSU can match USC in the return game.  With both James Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter in the return game, OSU has a chance to break one on every kick, just like USC.  I say SS has another TD to tack on for the Beavers.

Home Field Advantage

While for most teams home field advantage does not matter, I think for OSU, when it comes to playing USC it does matter.  The last two games at Reser were close, with OSU winning two years ago on a two-point conversion that failed for USC.

Four years ago, USC won in the Fog Bowl, a game where Reggie Bush changed the momentum on a TD on a punt return.

Also, with a Thursday game on ESPN that is an "Orange-Out," I believe OSU finally plays a good game on ESPN's Thursday Night College Football.

The Final Score

While I think OSU will keep it close for part of the game, I think USC is going to end up winning this one.  I will go with USC, 45-28.  As an OSU fan, I would love nothing more than an OSU upset, but USC is too good, and OSU is too young.