Fantasy Baseball: Draft This, Not That Part 3

First base is not exactly one of the easier positions to look for diamonds in the rough. We all know the key players and we all know that this is where everyone looks to drive power in their lineup. When you factor that into your decision-making process, waiting on drafting a player at this position is not likely in the cards. Fortunately, the talent runs deep.

That said, there are still some decisions that can be made, particularly towards the lower portion of the first 12, those that would likely be considered starters in most formats. There are two scenarios we will consider in this piece. Here is the first one.

Player A: 32 HR, 83 RBI, 94 Runs, 1 SB, .261 AVG, 22 ADP

Player B: 39 HR, 111 RBI, 89 Runs, 0 SB, .312 AVG, 70 ADP

Player C: 26 HR, 86 RBI, 100 Runs, 7 SB, .290 AVG, 110 ADP

The picture is not exactly perfect, but it does show that you can get similar value much later in a draft. The catch here is that there is certainly some risk involved in selecting both players B and C.

Player A in this case is Prince Fielder. Fielder’s average has been up and down as much as his weight, but he checks in at much closer to a .270 hitter than the .299 we saw in 2009. In two of his last three seasons he has hit fewer than 35 home runs and scored fewer than 100. He has had better than 100 RBI in three of the last four years, but that has been the only constant. Yet we continue to draft him highly. He has the potential to do more, but the fact is that he has not reached it.

In this case, Player B is Paul Konerko while Player C is Aubrey Huff. Konerko is not given much respect in fantasy circles, but he should be. In four of the last six seasons where he has been healthy (he played just 122 games in 2008) he has hit better than 35 home runs and driven in more than 100. We should pencil him in at a lock for 35 and 100 again this year. With more protection in the lineup, he likely should see his numbers stabilize.

He also will have a chance to score a few more should Adam Dunn hit behind him. He is not a .300 hitter either, but .270 is not a stretch and it is a number he has bettered five times in the last seven seasons.

Huff is a tougher case. Which guy is he? Is he the one that put up those numbers last year? The guy that hit .304 with 32 home runs in 2008? Or is he the guy that hit .240 between two teams in 2009 and put up only 15 home runs?

Owners will openly wonder about his job stability as well should Brandon Belt emerge to take his place. Huff can hit and he showed that he is worthy of getting playing time with the Giants. Owners are going to be cautious and for good reason. 

Scenario two is below.

Player A 15 HR, 78 RBI, 77 Runs, 0 SB, .318 AVG, 84 ADP

Player B 19 HR, 85 RBI, 72 Runs, 5 SB, .273 AVG, 217 ADP

Here we have Player A as Billy Butler. Player B here is Gaby Sanchez; one of my favorite cases at this position because of how much we think Butler can do. He was drafted in roughly the same spot last year but did not shoot up like many expected. Butler could hit 25 home runs, but we have not seen him do it yet.

Sanchez, though, is a young player that is just as likely to make that leap and can do it at a much cheaper price. The Marlins are obviously not much fun to watch. Sanchez could make them at least palatable. He should be in line for a jump in these numbers with more secure playing time. Expect him to chase 25 home runs and 90 RBI, numbers that should rival Butler.