Monza Preview: Can Felipe Massa Make It Three in a Row?

As the Formula One circus moves to the Italian Grand Prix this weekend, hosted at the historic Monza circuit, the ugly political side of Formula One will still be making headlines in the wake of Lewis Hamilton's controversial penalty at the Belgian Grand Prix.

That penalty stripped Hamilton of victory and handed it instead to the Ferrari of Felipe Massa, with the Brazilian closing Hamilton's lead in the title chase to just two points.

Now Massa, driving on Ferrari's home turf, will be hoping to deliver his third straight win and elevate himself to the top of the world championship standings.

Massa's last two wins, in Valencia and Spa-Francorchamps, did not come without controversy. His victory in the European Grand Prix was challenged by some quarters, who claimed that an unsafe pit release by the Ferrari team should have led to Massa being stripped of the win. Instead, however, the diminutive Brazilian was fined 10,000 Euros.

The protesting parties, who are, curiously, largely clad in various shades of chrome and silver, are also up in arms about Massa's win in Belgium, claiming that Hamilton's penalty was unjust and that the British driver was the rightful winner at Spa.

Whatever the political questions, however, there remains racing to be done, and the form book at Monza indicates that it will again be a very close call between Ferrari and McLaren.

With its long, high-speed straights, Monza favours Ferrari's power advantage, but with cooler temperatures and even a drop or two of rain expected, the superior ability of the McLaren car to generate tyre heat could come to the fore, with the Woking-based team at a significant advantage.

McLaren dominated the Italian Grand Prix last year, with Fernando Alonso taking victory ahead of teammate Hamilton. Their dominance at the Italian circuit was attributed to their car's superior handling over high kerbs, of which Monza has several.

This year, however, Ferrari have worked hard to reduce their car's deficit over the kerbs, as demonstrated by their improved performance at circuits like the Hungaroring, and this will be less of a factor this time around.

Both Ferrari and McLaren may have to be wary of a renewed challenge from BMW Sauber, whose powerful engine will give them a significant boost around the long straights of Monza.

Robert Kubica will be in the hunt for a good result, having struggled in his pit stops at Spa and securing only sixth place. The Pole, along with German teammate Nick Heidfeld, will be keen to take advantage of what could be a very BMW-friendly circuit, and could upset the order at the front of the pack.

However, BMW have all but given up on developing their current car since their maiden victory at the Canadian Grand Prix, and it is therefore possible that the gap to McLaren and Ferrari is too large to be bridged even at Monza.

Scuderia Toro Rosso have had significantly improved form at present, with the high speeds at Valencia and Spa favouring their Ferrari engine. Again, Monza's high-speed, low-downforce settings will help the team.

It appears that Sebastien Bourdais, who finished seventh at Spa but could have been far higher if not for the last-lap shenanigans, has finally managed to dial out the balance issues that have affected his season so far, so the Frenchman could be on for another good result.

Renault and Red Bull both suffer from a serious power shortfall in their Renault engines. At Spa, the Renault team were partly able to compensate for this with lower downforce settings, but with downforce pretty much as low as it can be for Monza, this line of thinking may not be open to them. Neither team is likely to be as competitive as it was in Belgium.

Of the other midfield teams, Toyota and Williams both had uninspiring races in Belgium, although Jarno Trulli could have scored some points had his car not been damaged early in the race. The Williams drivers will have a challenge attempting to escape the first part of qualifying, with their car not as efficient at generating low-drag downforce as some of the other teams.

Force India have the benefit of the Ferrari engine, which Adrian Sutil used to great effect in Belgium; in Saturday practice, the German was able to set a number of first sector times faster than anybody else in the session, such was the power of the car through the flat-out first part of the Belgian circuit.

If Force India can recapture this form for the high-speed Monza circuit, they may even break through into the second qualifying session, a much-talked-about target that has eluded the team so far this year.

Bringing up the rear, as is becoming more frequently the case, Honda suffer from the same troubles as Williams in generating downforce while minimising drag. This caused them no end of problems in Belgium, and the deficit will be even more pronounced here in Italy.

The final point to consider when contemplating who will have the advantage at Monza is engines. Of the three main title contenders (with no disrespect intended to Robert Kubica), Kimi Raikkonen and Hamilton should both be using their engine for the second race, although Raikkonen may get the option to change his after his retirement at Spa.

Massa, on the other hand, will have a brand new engine in his car, which could provide extra power and reliability having not already completed a brutal 300-plus kilometres at Spa.

Being two of the most engine-unfriendly circuits on the calendar, the challenge of using the same engine back-to-back at Spa and Monza cannot be understated. Although Mercedes' record of engine reliability is far better than it was a couple of years ago, Hamilton may need to err on the side of caution if he is to collect a result in Italy.

How close McLaren and Ferrari will be depends largely on the weather. If it is cool as predicted, Hamilton may just sneak a victory ahead of Ferrari, who will have their own questions as to which of their drivers they allow to finish first.

On the other hand, if it is hot, Ferrari will have the advantage. In this case Ferrari will presumably let their drivers fight it out amongst themselves, and given their form at Spa alone, Raikkonen should have the advantage over Massa. With Raikkonen's inconsistency coming back to haunt him at regular intervals, however, one can never be certain.

Whatever the case, Monza promises to be a true test of the equipment of all of the F1 teams, none more so than the top two. Although Monza rarely provides exciting racing, it should at least be interesting to watch as this thrilling Formula One season nears its climax.