Peyton Manning: Can He Lead This Version of the Colts to the Super Bowl?
Win today, and the Indianapolis Colts will clinch the AFC South title.
Indianapolis (9-6) has had a much tougher run this year compared to recent seasons, but have made the playoffs for eight consecutive years. If the Colts beat Tennessee today, it would tie Dallas for consecutive postseason appearances with nine (1975-1983), an NFL record.
"I probably like to talk about it after it's done," Colts coach Jim Caldwell told the team's website. "We're not there. We have to earn our right to get there. Then, we can kind of talk about it. You know me. I don't like gazing down the street. You're asking for problems. I really do think so. We have to stay focused."
Indianapolis had three goals during training camp: Win the division, make the playoffs, win it all. The first goal is within reach, but are this year's Colts built to win the Super Bowl? Do they have the same aura as previous teams, or did their window of opportunity slam shut with their loss to New Orleans in last year's Super Bowl?
Here are five reasons the Colts could win the Super Bowl, and five reasons they won't.
Reason No. 5 They Will: No Pressure
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Unlike previous years, when they were a powerhouse, the Colts go in without that same pressure in the AFC playoffs. New England is the team many think will cruise to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have both been strong, and the New York Jets have to live up to Rex Ryan's bold Super Bowl claim he made before the season.
The Colts and Kansas City are in great positions to crash the party.
Reason No. 5 They Won't: Trust in Donald?
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Does Indianapolis really believe Donald Brown can carry the load at running back? The second-year player from Connecticut is the team's leading rusher this year with 126 carries for 488 yards. He did have a breakout game against Jacksonville, finishing with 14 carries for a season-high 129 yards in a 34-24 win, but he isn't the proven hammer that Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai were.
Addai has been injured most of the season, and just recently returned to action. If he gets healthy, and the team can use both running backs effectively, then maybe the Colts' odds increase. But Indianapolis is 30th in the league in rushing at just over 92 yards per game.
This isn't rocket science, but if an NFL team wants to be successful in the playoffs, it needs an effective ground game and some horses to use. Pittsburgh has it with Rashard Mendenhall, and Ray Rice fits the role with Baltimore. Whether Brown is that for the Colts or not remains to be seen.
Reason No. 4 They Will: Seasoned Vets
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Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne (pictured), Dominic Rhodes, Pierre Garcon and Antoine Bethea are just some of the players you could mention who have playoff experience and know what it takes to be successful in the postseason. This isn't a case of a team like St. Louis, for example, who has risen from the NFL's ditches to the cusp of the playoffs in just one season.
Playoff pressure won't phase Indianapolis for a second.
Reason No. 4 They Won't: Not As Spectacular
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Indianapolis has quietly developed one of the league's more solid defenses in recent years. This year's group isn't dreadful, but it does rank in the bottom half of the league in total defense, allowing just under 342 total yards and 24.5 points per game.
In their six losses, Indianapolis has been hurt either on the ground or in the air. Here's a look back at the games, with scores, and opposing players' final stats:
Houston (34-24): RB Arian Foster, 33-231, three TDs
Jacksonville (31-28): QB David Garrard, 17-22, 163 yards, two TDs
Philadelphia (26-24): QB Michael Vick, 17-29, 218 yards, one TD
New England (31-28): QB Tom Brady, 19-25, 186 yards, one TDs
San Diego (36-14): RB Mike Tolbert, 26-103, one TD
Dallas (38-35, OT): RB Tashard Choice, 19-100, one TD
Reason No. 3 They Will: It's About Momentum
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The Colts are riding a three-game winning streak entering today's game with Tennessee. In that span, they defeated Jacksonville 34-24, denying the Jaguars a chance to wrap up the AFC South title. Indianapolis also seemed to rediscover its non-existent ground game last week as it finished with 191 yards in a 31-26 win over Oakland.
That's just the kind of momentum you need entering the playoffs.
Reason No. 3 They Won't: Pressure Peyton
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He hasn't lost his edge and is still one of the game's elite quarterbacks, but Peyton Manning has also cost his team repeatedly this year trying to do too much, which has resulted in costly interceptions. He has 17 on the season, including four in the Colts' 38-35 overtime loss to Dallas. Two others were returned for touchdowns by Kevin Burnett and Eric Weddle in a 36-14 loss to San Diego.
Reason No. 2 They Will: They Almost Had It
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Indianapolis fell short in Foxboro on Nov. 21 and lost to New England, 31-28. Do you not think Peyton Manning wants a second shot at his rival Tom Brady and a chance to knock the Patriots off when it matters most? Keep in mind it's much tougher to beat a team twice, and it's not like Manning would be facing a defense that's on par with Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
Reason No. 2 They Won't: Not the Same Look
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Take your emotions out, and just ask yourself, "Is this Colts team on par with other Colts teams?"
Keep in mind, it's going down to the final week of the regular season for them to clinch the division. Before their three-game winning streak, they lost three straight, including a blowout to San Diego and an overtime loss to an overrated Dallas team. Their win over Jacksonville was big, but wins over Philadelphia or New England would have given them more credibility as a serious Super Bowl contender.
Reason No. 1 They Will: Peyton's Still There
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Even if they're not on par with other Colts teams, Indianapolis still has a future Hall-of-Famer in charge, and right now the only other quarterback in the same league with him in the AFC is Tom Brady.
Reason No. 1 They Won't: Belichick
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If they're going to reach the Super Bowl, the Colts are going to have to beat New England in Foxboro, which means Peyton Manning is going to have to find a way to outsmart Patriots coach Bill Belichick. What's made New England-Indianapolis such an incredible rivalry isn't just Brady vs. Manning, but watching a Hall of Fame player match wits with a Hall of Fame coach.
And the coach has come out on top plenty of times.
Conclusion
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As good as Peyton Manning is, he can't do it all. The Colts may win a first round game, but they won't go any further. A Super Bowl win would be miraculous, and probably put Peyton right below his brother Eli, who beat New England 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. It was the Patriots' only loss that season.
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