NFL Playoff Picture: Worst-Case Scenario For Each Would-Be Playoff Team

With only a week left in the NFL season, the playoff picture is nearly as clear as a bell, with only one team, (the Jacksonville Jaguars) still alive in the AFC, and three (the Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), still with a shot from the NFC.

There are three division crowns still up for grabs with the NFC West, AFC North and AFC South yet to be decided, so there is still a bit of jostling to be done with the final week of games.

Teams will be looking to secure their playoff position and get as good a seed as they can in order to set up a deep run into the playoffs, and possibly a trip to Dallas for the Super Bowl.

Many of the teams can still improve their standing, or hurt it, depending on how they preform this Sunday.

However, this Sunday is not something that I want to take a look at.

I want to put on my pessimist pants and take a look at the worst-case scenarios for each potential playoff team at this point.

Seattle Seahawks

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TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 26: Tight end Chris Baker #86 of the Seattle Seahawks catches a pass while warming up just before the start of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on December 26, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. M

Worst-Case Scenario: Miss Playoffs

The Seahawks and St. Louis Rams are going to meet in a veritable play-in game this Sunday night at Qwest Field.

If the Seahawks win, they will finish the season at an astounding 7-9 and gain a home-field playoff game.

But at this point that game is more or less a coin toss.

All year long, no NFC West team has stood out as the leading candidates for a playoff spot, and as recently as a week ago the San Francisco 49ers controlled their own destiny within the division.

It seems that Seattle has an equal chance of winning or losing this weekend, so obviously their worst-case scenario would be a loss this weekend and a January in front of the television, instead of on the playing field.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 26: Quarterback Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the game at Raymond James Stadium on December 26, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Worst-Case Scenario: Miss Playoffs

Tampa Bay is one of the teams in the NFC that will need the dominoes to fall in the right direction in order for them to make the playoffs.

The Buccaneers are sitting behind Green Bay and New York in line for a playoff spot, so they will need to win this weekend and hope for losses from the Packers and Giants in order for them to land in the playoffs.

What's worse is that they have the toughest game of the three.

They will have to stop a streaking New Orleans team that is vying for the top seed in the conference—which would move them from playing a game in the wild card week to a game at home in the second round.

Tampa Bay has a steep hill to climb, and it will be tough for them to end up in the playoffs, even if they end up winning this Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars

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JACKSONVILLE, FL - DECEMBER 26: Quarterback David Garrard #9 and Mike Thomas #80 of the jacksonville Jaguars celebrate following a touchdown during the game against the Washington Redskins at EverBank Field on December 26, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida.

Worst-Case Scenario: A loss this weekend causing them to miss the playoffs.

The only thing worse than missing the playoffs for Jacksonville would be for the Indianapolis Colts to lose their game against Tennessee—leaving the door wide open for the Jaguars—only to lose themselves at Houston.

It would be a bit of adding insult to injury. One thing for certain: This Sunday will be agonizing for the fans. As the two teams play at the same time, and would be wrapping up just around the same time, the endless split-screen shots and cut-aways to the other game will truly make football life unbearable.

Jacksonville has had a good season this year, and a playoff berth would only be the icing on the cake. But at this point, with Indianapolis playing the Tennessee Titans, it doesn't seem likely that they are going to be happy this Sunday.

New York Giants

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GREEN BAY, WI - DECEMBER 26: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants throws against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 26, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Worst-Case Scenario: Miss playoffs due to a loss to the struggling Redskins.

New York plays the Washington Redskins this weekend, and what could be worse than a third straight loss and a season ending at the hands of Rex Grossman?

All New York needs to grab a playoff spot is to win and have the Green Bay Packers lose, giving them the final playoff spot in the NFC.

However, this is a must-win game for the Packers as well, as there is no scenario in which a loss will put them into the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers

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GREEN BAY, WI - DECEMBER 26: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers rolls out of the pocket against the New York Giants at Lambeau Field on December 26, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Worst-Case Scenario: A loss to their division rivals and a win by either New York or Tampa Bay.

Green Bay came into this season with hopes as high as a Super Bowl berth, and many in the media thought that they would be the team to beat in the NFC.

Now, after an injury-riddled season, they look to be a one-dimensional team and have the possibility of being knocked out of the playoff picture in the final week of the season.

What would make it all even worse would be the fact that the Chicago Bears—their sworn enemies—would be the team to take them out of the playoff picture this season.

Working to their benefit, however, is the fact that Chicago can neither help nor hurt their playoff position this weekend because Atlanta plays Carolina—a game that they will not lose—locking them in at the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

So the Bears may end up resting their starters for a big portion of the game.

New York Jets

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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 26: Kellen Davis #87 of the Chicago Bears is tackled by Josh Mauga #53, Vernon Gholston #50 and James Ihedigbo #44 of the New York Jets at Soldier Field on December 26, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Jets 38-34. (

Worst-Case Scenario: A first-round loss to Matt Cassel.

If you remember the first game after Tom Brady's injury in 2008, then you will remember that it was the first career start by Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel, and that they beat the New York Jets, 19-10.

Cassel has since improbably blossomed into a very good NFL quarterback, despite being a career backup at both New England and USC.

After a tumultuous season for the Jets, nothing would sting worse than an early playoff exit, and it seems quite probable, as they are not playing their best football right now. And with the Chiefs winning five of their last six, Kansas City is something of a hot team as of late.

I'd say that it is going to be very difficult for the Jets to win this one.

New Orleans Saints

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ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates a touchdown pass in the first half during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome on December 27, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox

Worst-Case Scenario: Missing out on home-field advantage, then losing to Atlanta in the second round.

First, the Saints have a game against Tampa Bay this weekend, and if they win it, it could propel them into the No. 1 spot in the NFC.

However, if they don't win, it is sill pretty much the equivalent of a first-round bye, as they will most likely end up playing the winner of the Jacksonville-Seattle game.

There is no way that New Orleans will lose that game, even with it being an away game.

So the worst possible thing that could happen to the Saints is losing to the team that won their division in the second round of the playoffs, ending their hopes for a second straight title.

Baltimore Ravens

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CLEVELAND - DECEMBER 26: Safety Chris Carr #25 of the Baltimore Ravens jumps for the ball as safety Ed Reed #20 looks on with wide receiver Chansi Stuckey #83 of the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 26, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (

Worst-Case Scenario: Missing out on a first-round bye and then losing to New England in the second round.

With a win this weekend against Cincinnati, and a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland, Baltimore will win the AFC North and gain a first-round bye. But more importantly, it will keep them as far away from New England as possible.

A loss this week means they go on to play the Colts in Indianapolis, a game that they can win simply by containing Peyton Manning.

The biggest problem, however, would be the fact that the would have to go on to play the New England Patriots in the second round—something that nobody wants to do at this point.

A game against the Patriots is almost a death sentence at this point, as they can beat a team in any way they please.

St. Louis Rams

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ST. LOUIS, MO - DECEMBER 26: Steven Jackson #39 of the St. Louis Rams catches a pass against the San Francisco 49ers at the Edward Jones Dome on December 26, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Rams beat the 49ers 25-17. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Image

Worst-Case Scenario: Miss playoffs.

Once again, St. Louis is playing Seattle this weekend, and the winner of the game will host a first-round playoff game, likely against the New Orleans Saints.

The best thing that can happen to the Rams is winning this weekend and going on to lose to the Saints in the first round of the playoffs. The worst is a loss this weekend in Seattle.

With both teams being equally mediocre, either outcome is possible.

This game will be a coin toss, but still probably exciting.

Indianapolis Colts

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OAKLAND, CA - DECEMBER 26: Dwight Freeney #93 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates after a sack against the Oakland Raiders during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on December 26, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty

Worst-Case Scenario: Miss Playoffs

First of all, let me say that I don't believe there is any way that the Colts will end up losing this weekend to the Tennessee Titans. But it can't be ruled out as a possibility as this is still the NFL, and any team can win on any given weekend—as shown by Cincinnati's win over San Diego last week.

If the Colts lose this weekend, and Jacksonville wins, the Colts will end up on the outside looking in at the playoffs. By missing the playoffs, it will end a disappointing season after reaching the Super Bowl a year ago.

However, I still think the Colts are going to end up winning this weekend, so maybe their worst-case scenario should be a loss to Baltimore, Pittsburgh or New York in the first round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 28: Kurt Coleman #42 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after tackling Visanthe Shiancoe #81 of the Minnesota Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field on December 26, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Get

Worst-Case Scenario: First-round loss to Green Bay/New York/Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia is locked in the No. 3 spot in the playoffs, and a win or loss will not effect them at all. So this week is quite meaningless to the Eagles.

They got embarrassed last week against the Vikings and showed a lot of their weaknesses, something they haven't done much this season.

They are going to end up playing whoever comes out of the Tampa Bay/New York/Green Bay triumvirate, The Eagles can lose to any of those teams, as they have lost to Green Bay this season (although it was with Kevin Kolb at the helm) and pulled out a close win over the New York Giants.

Kansas City Chiefs

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KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 26: Casey Wiegmann #62 of the Kansas City Chiefs in action during the game against the Tennessee Titans on December 26, 2010 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Worst-Case Scenario: Pittsburgh loses this week, while Baltimore and New York win, leading to a game against the Steelers and a loss in the first round.

Like Philadelphia, Kansas City is locked in to the No. 3 spot in the AFC. They are going to end up playing the No. 6 team in the playoffs—whether it be the New York Jets or Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Chiefs can lock up a win against the Jets much more easily than the Steelers, so a scenario in which the Steelers fall to the sixth seed in the playoffs could mean trouble for them.

They would have difficulties with such a young quarterback against the league's best defense, and a dangerous secondary that can come up with big plays at any moment.

Chicago Bears

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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 26: Braylon Edwards #17 of the New York Jets is tackled by Major Wright #27 and Charles Tillman #33 of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 26, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Jets 38-34. (Photo by Jonath

Worst-Case Scenario: Second-round loss.

Realistically, the Bears have no chance of taking over the top seed in the NFC, so the game Sunday against Green Bay is rather meaningless.

They could end up with the top seed, but only if they win this Sunday and the Falcons improbably end up losing to the Panthers.

It is more probable, however, that they lock up the No. 2 spot and play either Philadelphia or the winner of the Green Bay/New York/Tampa Bay contest this weekend.

They have already had one of the most improbable, yet under the radar seasons thus far. An early loss would be a disappointment, but it wouldn't constitute a failure of a season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

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PITTSBURGH - DECEMBER 23: James Farrior #51 of the Pittsburgh Steelers pumps up the crowd during the game against the Carolina Panthers on December 23, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Worst-Case Scenario: Fall to No. 6 and lose in first round.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the No. 2 team in the AFC, but if everything works out against them this weekend, which is entirely possible, they could end up falling all the way to No. 6.

Pittsburgh has a game against a sneaky good Browns team in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Ravens play a weak Bengals team at home and the Jets have already scored 23 points against Buffalo—and they haven't even flipped a coin yet.

If Pittsburgh isn't careful, they could to the Browns this weekend and end up playing a very good Kansas City team in the first round (who could very well beat them).

Atlanta Falcons

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ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 27: Michael Jenkins #12 of the Atlanta Falcons reaches for a pass in front of Tracy Porter #22 of the New Orleans Saints during their game at the Georgia Dome on December 27, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty

Worst-Case Scenario: Lose to New Orleans in second round.

It seems that no matter what happens in the coming week, there will be a rematch of Monday night's exciting game in the second round of the playoffs.

New Orleans could sneak the No. 1 seed away from Atlanta if the Saints beat Tampa Bay this week and the Falcons fall to the Panthers.

Like I stated before, if this ends up happening I'll eat my hat...and your hat. It's just not going to happen.

However, the bad news is that New Orleans is going to win in the wild card round, as they play the Seattle/St. Louis winner—a game in which they have about a 96 percent chance of winning.

They could then march into Atlanta in the second round and take the Falcons down just as they did a few days ago.

New England Patriots

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ORCHARD PARK, NY - DECEMBER 26: Kyle Love #74 of the New England Patriots celebrates his sack on Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills (not shown) at Ralph Wilson Stadium on December 26, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. New England won 34-3. (Photo b

Worst Case Scenario: A loss in AFC Championship game.

With the way the Patriots are playing right now, I would be stunned if they lose their second-round game to any team that is out there.

They have beaten teams in every way over the past few weeks, from blow-outs to coming from behind, you name it, they've done it.

They are never down until the final second clicks off the clock, and this team may have more drive than the 2007 Patriots. Tom Brady looks like he has something to prove and is clicking on all cylinders.

If a team beats them before they get to the AFC Championship game, I will be stunned.

It will even be a bit shocking to see them miss out on a trip to Dallas this February.