Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Week 17 Preview and Keys To The Game
The Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets will close out the 2010 season this Sunday, when the Bills travel to New York to see if they have recovered from their pasting by the Patriots last weekend.
If you are planning to attend the game, or you are still involved in fantasy football playoffs, the current forecast for Sunday calls for 42 degrees and showers. Plan accordingly.
The Jets, who clinched a wild-card playoff berth last weekend, are not really coming in to the playoffs with very much momentum, as they have lost three of their last four games.
Head coach Rex Ryan is torn between trying to rest injured players and winning the game to establish some positive momentum.
The Bills would like to have such problems, as the last time the Bills were part of the second season was back in 1999. The 90's were good to the Bills, when they made the playoffs eight different times in that decade. But when the new century arrived, the Bills have vanished completely from the playoffs.
So that distinction led to the complete overhaul of the team by Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey. The duo knows a whole lot more about the personnel now than they did at training camp, and the Bills rebuilding efforts are well under way.
New York Jets Season In Review
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The New York Jets season has been a roller coaster ride. They began the year as the chosen NFL team to be featured on the HBO series Hard Knocks, which made the team into bigger media darlings than they already were, having reached the AFC Championship Game as underdogs in 2009.
Then there was the highly publicized holdout of shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis, who eventually returned to the fold, along with fellow holdout All-Pro Center Nick Mangold. When the season started, the Jets lost to the Baltimore Ravens by one point.
They followed up the opening loss by sweeping the entire AFC East in the midst of a five-game winning streak. They had their bye week, and came out of the bye getting shut out by the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers loss was then followed by two consecutive overtime wins against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns, two teams the Bills beat. The overtime wins were part of a four-game winning streak, and found the Jets sitting pretty with a 9-2 record.
Then came the recent slide of losing three of the last four to New England, Miami and Chicago. The Bills are trying to recover from their pasting by the Patriots, but the Jets can relate as New England beat them badly as well, 45-3.
The Jets' loss to Miami was marred of course by the now-famous sideline wall incident orchestrated by assistant coach Sal Alosi, who tripped the Dolphins' Nolan Carroll.
By and large, a successful year: making the playoffs, being in the headlines frequently and selling lots of newspapers.
The Buffalo Bills Year In Review
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The Buffalo Bills rebuilding effort is still in the early developmental stages. The number of veteran players from 2009 that are no longer part of the current team include: Aaron Schobel, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, Josh Reed, Terrell Owens, Kawika Mitchell, Derek Schouman, Derek Fine, Ryan Denney, Brad Butler, James Hardy, Chris Ellis, Chris Draft, Richie Incognito, John Wendling, Nic Harris and Ashlee Palmer.
This year the Bills have lost these players to I.R.: Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Cornell Green, Shawn Nelson, Shawne Merriman, Keith Ellison, Andra Davis, Dwan Edwards, Cordaro Howard, Kraig Urbik, Reggie Torbor, David Nelson, Antonio Coleman, Danny Batten and Marcus Easley.
If this seems like a long list of names, it is a carbon copy of the 2009 carousel that was the Buffalo Bills. The team is trying hard to identify a talented core of players that they can build the team around, and based on the second half of the season, they appear to be on the right track.
The Bills came out of the gate going 0-5. During that span, they released Trent Edwards, traded away Marshawn Lynch and made Ryan Fitzpatrick the undisputed starting quarterback. From that point forward the offense started to take off.
But as witnessed by the growing list of injuries suffered through the course of the season, the Bills have been forced to replace veterans by playing with 12 rookies on the 53 man active roster. By contrast, the Jets only have five rookies on their 53 man active roster. We all know that rookies tend to make many mistakes. Chalk it up to growing pains.
How far have the Bills come along? In the nine week span that followed, the Bills lost by three points to all of the following playoff teams: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City and Chicago. They beat Detroit, Cleveland, Miami and Cincinnati. They also were blown out by New England and Minnesota.
Bills Vs Jets: Week 4 Revisited
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Back in Week 4, the Jets came to Buffalo and put on a masterful showing as they really beat the Bills badly, 38-14. The Jets dominated every aspect of the game, as they controlled the clock by a wide margin, 40 minutes to 19 for the Bills. They out-gained Buffalo 444 to 223. The Bills defense simply could not find any way to get off of the field, giving up one long drive after another.
LaDainian Tomlinson went over 100 yards rushing and scored two touchdowns. Tight end Dustin Keller hurt the Bills, as did wide receiver Braylon Edwards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had to run for his life, and wound up as the Bills leading rusher for the day, coming up with 71 yards on seven carries.
The Jets were more physical than the Bills were that day, and this is going to be one of the areas that will be addressed as they prepare for this rematch.
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The Jets Have Numerous Weapons
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The Jets offense is led by second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez. For the year, Sanchez has thrown for almost 3,300 yards, with 17 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions,. He averages 217 yards passing per game and has been sacked 27 times. His QB passer rating is 75.3 and he is ranked 28th in the NFL.
Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene split the carries in their timeshare arrangement. For the year, Tomlinson needs just 86 yards to reach another 1,000 yard season. He is currently just ahead of the Bills Fred Jackson, as the 18th leading rusher in the league.
Wide receivers include Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards and Jerrico Cotchery, along with tight end Dustin Keller. Of this group, the leader is Braylon Edwards, who is ranked No. 23 in the NFL with 852 yards for the year. He has hauled in six touchdowns and averages 56 yards per game.
Don't forget about versatile Brad Smith, who is a talented return man.
The Jets offense is ranked No. 13 in the NFL, averaging 348 yards a game. They average 208 yards passing (20th best) and 139 yards rushing (sixth best). They score an average of 21.9 points a game, which is No. 19 in the league.
The Jets have cranked out 290 first downs (No 16) and have converted 85 third downs (eighth best). Their third down conversion percentage is 38.8 (15th best).
Current Weapons On Bills Offense
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The Bills offensive stars didn't see the field very often in Week 4. Since then, they have lost Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and David Nelson to the I.R. list. In their place are a bunch of undrafted rookie free agents which include: Donald Jones, Naaman Roosevelt and David Nelson. The Bills just added receiver Paul Hubbard and expect David Nelson to sit out this game due to a rib injury.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is now sitting on exactly 3,000 passing yards for the season. He has thrown 23 touchdowns to 15 interceptions and has been sacked 23 times. He is averaging 231 yards per game. His QB passer rating is 81.8, which is No. 21 in the league.
Running back Fred Jackson has his work cut out for him if he wants to repeat as a 1,000 yard rusher. Jackson needs 108 yards to hit the century mark. The offensive line would love to help him reach that goal, but it will depend on the weather, the score and how often the Bills defense can keep the Jets offense off of the field. Jackson is currently the No. 19 ranked running back in the NFL.
There is not much that separates Jackson from Tomlinson. Both have generated 42 first downs on the year. L.T. has scored six times, Jackson five. L.T. averages 60.9 yards a game, Jackson 59.5. The main difference is that L.T. runs behind Pro-Bowl linemen, Jackson does not.
Bills rookie running back C.J. Spiller has one final chance to make some positive waves. He lost two fumbles last week and has not scored any touchdowns since Week 3. He could really use a good showing for his psyche.
Wide receiver Steve Johnson is the Bills leading receiver, ranked No. 14 in the NFL with 1,001 yards. His rise to fame this season has been a breath of fresh air. Jackson has scored 10 touchdowns, so no doubt will be covered by the likes of Darrelle Revis, since Lee Evans is hurt.
The Bills offense is ranked No. 24, averaging 314 yards a game. Passing offense averages 202 yards a game (24th) and the Bills rush for 112 yards a game (15th). They average 18.4 points a game (27th). The Bills have amassed 257 first downs (25th) and converted 76 third downs (17th). They convert 38.2 percent of the time on third down (18th).
Turnovers, Turnovers, Turnovers
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Last week against the New England Patriots, the Bills committed seven turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick, shown here fumbling the ball, had five of his own turnovers for the game, in his worst performance of the year. C.J. Spiller lost the ball three times, but one of them was recovered by the Bills. Spiller said after the game that it was his worst game of the season.
The question is how do the Bills want to end the year? Do they want to go into the off-season feeling good about themselves with a strong showing? Or are they going to go through the motions and lose their focus and concentration, which is what happened last Sunday? Finding out the answers to these questions is part of the intrigue surrounding this game.
For the season, the Jets take better care of the ball. They are ranked No. 4 in the AFC with a plus 4 score in turnovers. They have thrown 13 interceptions and fumbled it away 7 times, while their defense has created 24 turnovers, coming in the form of 8 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries.
The Bills are next to last in the AFC with a minus 12 in turnovers. The Bills have turned the ball over 33 times this year, which is as telling a statistic as any in explaining their 4-11 season. The Bills have been intercepted 17 times and fumbled it away 16 times. The defense has created 21 turnovers, coming in the form of 10 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries.
Defensive Profiles
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Despite recently giving up 45 points to New England and 38 points to Chicago, the New York Jets defense is ranked at No. 11 overall in points allowed, with an average of 19.8 per game. Those two contests have really skewed their overall season ranking.
The Jets don't have any players you will find on the defensive statistic leaderboards. They just play solid team defense. Their leading tackler is linebacker David Harris who has 97, which is 35th best in the league. Leading the team in interceptions is Antonio Cromartie with three picks. The leading sackman is linebacker Bryan Thomas with six.
The Jets defense is ranked No 4 in the league, allowing an average of 300.1 yards per game. The run defense is tough, giving up 94.5 yards a game (5th best) while the pass defense is 9th best, allowing an average of 205.7 yards per game.
The Bills defense features two of the top five tacklers in the NFL. Linebacker Paul Posluszny is No. 3 with 139 tackles and safety Donte Whitner is right behind him at No. 4 with 136. The Bills leading sacker is nose tackle Kyle Williams with 5.5. Cornerback Drayton Florence leads the Bills with 3 interceptions.
The Bills defense is ranked 24th in the league, giving up an average of 359.9 yards a game. The rush defense is dead last, allowing 162 yards a game while the pass defense is No. 4, giving up 197.3 yards per game. The Bills defense allows 25.8 points a game (27th).
The Jets have allowed 266 first downs this year (9th best), while the Bills have given up 318 (28th).
None Of The Bills Were Selected To AFC Pro Bowl Team
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As strong of a season as Bills' nose tackle Kyle Williams is having, he was snubbed for the AFC Pro-Bowl team, which was just announced. Williams is second in the entire NFL for tackles by a defensive lineman with 75. That is strong production for a nose tackle. The snub may lead to him having a monster game on Sunday, as he will have plenty of motivation to take out his frustration on the Jets.
Stevie Johnson, the Bills wide receiver that came out of nowhere, was also snubbed, as none of the Bills were named to the original AFC Pro Bowl team.
As talented a team as the Jets have, they only saw three players named to the team. They are cornerback Darrelle Revis, center Nick Mangold and tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. It is noteworthy that two of the three, Revis and Mangold, were both holdouts when training camp started. Rex Ryan is hoping that they did not establish a bad precedent.
Looks like there were snubs for both teams, as the Jets were probably convinced that more than three of their guys would be named. For people like Kyle Williams, he can now only hope to go as an alternate, even though he is deserving of the honor. It is tough to get enough votes when your team is last in the NFL in rushing defense and you are playing at the point of attack.
Who Will Rex Ryan Play at QB: Sanchez Or Brunell ?
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Mark Sanchez has been playing with damaged cartilage in his throwing shoulder. The biggest concern for head coach Rex Ryan is to figure out how much to play Sanchez in the season finale. Does he risk Sanchez to further injury, putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy? Or does he opt to just let him make a cameo appearance, similar to what Peyton Manning did against the Bills in Week 17 of the 2009 season?
If Ryan decides to limit Sanchez, that means that 40-something veteran Mark Brunell will get the call at quarterback. Not really sure how much mobility Brunell has left in his legs, so this may be a way for some of the Bills defensive unit to pad their sack totals.
Do the Jets go all out to try to win this game or do they decide to rest the majority of the starters in the second half and try to come into the first playoff game with a healthier team? Good question. We only hope that Chan Gailey is faced with that same scenario during the next few years.
Playing For Pride Vs The 2011 Draft
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The Bills were obviously embarrassed last Sunday by their pitiful showing against the Patriots. Their record stands at 4-11. A win brings them to 5-11, while a loss means they finish at 4-12. On the surface, 4-12 versus 5-11 doesn't seem like that big of a deal. In retrospect, they both will be viewed as a terrible season, one to forget.
But when it comes time to slot teams for the 2011 draft, the four win teams will be sitting there with many elite players to pick from, while the five win teams will be muttering with each stud that is drafted before they are on the clock.
The thing for Bills fans to be aware of is that due to the difficult nature of the Bills 2010 schedule, they have the current highest score of degree of difficulty of any of the teams that have either four or five wins. That is a significant piece of information. As it stands now, if Buffalo, Denver and Cincinnati all lose on Sunday, the Bills will be drafting with the fourth overall pick.
If the Bills win on Sunday, they are in danger of zooming all the way from 4th to 10th. If none of the five win teams are able to pull out a victory Sunday (Dallas, Detroit, San Francisco, Arizona, Cleveland or Houston), and the Bills win, then they would be slotted last behind all these teams. Due to having the most difficult schedule, that means the Bills would be drafting 10th overall.
So, this game is worth tuning in for a number of reasons. Do the Bills go home feeling better about their team? Does Sanchez play or sit? Do the Jets really try to win, or is Rex Ryan just playing politician? Do either Tomlinson or Jackson reach 1,000 yards for the year? Where will the Bills wind up drafting? So, in case if you were wondering why you should watch the game, you now have plenty of reasons for tuning in.
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