NFL: If You Don't Want Sub .500 Teams in Postseason, Get Rid of Conferences
With all the talk about the NFC west that may very well wind up with a 7-9 team as the division winner and hosting a playoff game, against a team with a better record. So some players and coaches say the top 6 teams should make the playoffs regardless if they win their division or not. Some of these players and coaches, now analysts are the same players and coaches that when the NFL went to a 8-division format were for a "win your division, and get a home game" format. Let's be honest if an NFC West team finishes at 8-8 (Rams or Seahawks) this probably will simmer down. However if there is a 3-way tie at 6-9 going into the final week, one of the teams (Rams, 49ers, Seahawks) will finish at 7-9 and win the division, then everyone is up in arms.
So I decided to take into account the need for divisions, but also the need for best records get into the post season. You still don't need to have a .500 or above record to make it, but you won't be hosting a playoff game in this scenario. At fortunately for those don't want a sub .500 team in the post season, as of now, none made it in.
So what did I do? I eliminated the AFC/NFC Conferences and created four divisions: NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST. Each division has eight teams. Taking the AFC NORTH and NFC NORTH and merging them. The AFC WEST and the NFC WEST and merging them, and so-on. The top teams in the four divisions are assured a first round bye and a home game the following week. The other 8 slots are wild card slots based on win-loss percentage. Tie breaking procedure was Head-to-Head, Net Points, Points Against (Lowest PA gets higher/better seed), Points For (More points for gets higher/better seed). Below is the seeding for the playoffs. Start the slideshow for matchups and predictions.
As of Week 15. *= Division Winner.
1. New England* (12-2)
2. Atlanta* (12-2)
3. Chicago* (10-4)
4. Kansas City* (9-5)
5. Pittsburgh (10-4)
6. New Orleans (10-4)
7. Philadelphia (10-4)
8. Baltimore (10-4)
9. NY Jets (10-4)
10. NY Giants (9-5)
11. San Diego (8-6)
12. Green Bay (8-6)
Remember the tie-breaking procedure was head-to-head and then Net points. I might do another projection with SOV but this Net points seemed more like the right way. Not that SOV means nothing, but I like Net Pts after H2H better.
Round 1: No. 12 Green Bay Packers at No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers
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This looks like a real good matchup on paper. I bleieve it will be even better on the field. The vaunted Steelers Defense against the Packers Aaron Rodgers and the Packers air attack.
The teams have not played this season and the last meeting was December 20, 2009 in Heinz Field where the game game down to the final play, where Roethlisberger hit Mike Wallace in the corner of the endzone, a 19 yard TD pass as time expired. Steelers beat the Packers 37-36 to snap a 5 game losing streak.
While the Packers offense is pretty much still the same, the have struggled at times this season, and the Steelers defense is one of the best in the league. Steelers could be without a few offensive weapons, but it rarely stops them, even if some of their wins are ugly grind outs.
Steelers at home prevail 24-17.
Round 1: No. 11 San Diego Chargers at No. 6 New Orleans Saints
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The last two matchups between these two teams has been shootouts. Granted the one this year in the Superdome was on August 27, 2010 and a preseason game. The saints won 36-21. The one before that was in London, where the Saints won 37-32.
Phillip Rivers visits the Superdome where the defending Super Bowl champs await. Time to break out the Whites at home, and put the chargers in the Powder Blues. Wait, what's that? Chargers usually win in the Powders blues? Better tell them to wear the Navy.
Don't think it will matter what uniform San Diego wears - Saints seem to have the Chargers number.
Another shooutout brewing, and when you get into a run and gun game with New Orleans you're lucky if you're in it at halftime.
Saints 40-27
Round 1: No. 10 New York Giants at No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles
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Everyone should be familiar with the Giants 21 point 4th quarter collapse just a few days ago against the Eagles. Philadelphia sweeps the season series with the Giants, only to host them in the first round of the playoffs. It is very hard to beat a division rival three times in one season. But when you have Michael Vick your odds increase.
The Giants would be exacting revenge and probably be playing with lots of anger, keeping the game close, but the Eagles finally stop beating themselves and Vick gets the Eagles in position for a game-winning Field Goal to beat the Giants in Overtime.
Eagles 27-24 OT
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Round 1: No. 9 New York Jets at No. 8 Baltimore Ravens
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This is another big division matchup. The Jets travel to Baltimore to face Ray Lewis and Joe Flacco. These two teams played in week one this season on Monday Night Football, and the Raven Defense silences Sanchez and the offense. The following week the Jets beat the Patriots at the New Meadowlands and the Ravens traveled to Cincinnati and lost to the Bengals.
It will depend of which Defense wants it more and I think the Jets atone for their Week one ugly showing.
Jets 21 -17
Round 2: No. 9 New York Jets at No. 1 New England Patriots
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In the second round the ninth-seeded Jets travel to Foxboro to face the top-seeded Patriots. After the Monday Night regular season thrashing the Patriots handed the Jets there is no way they can beat the Fightin' Brady's right?
Well, actually I believe that embarrassment on the national stage (like week one) will serve as motivation for the Jets defense to keep the game close. You won't be able to shut down Brady completely but if the Jets keeps it close they have a shot to set up Nick folk for a game winning field goal as time expires.
Jets 31-28
Round 2: No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 2 Atlanta Falcons
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The Eagles already beat the Falcons this season in Philly 31-17. However Kolb was under center for the Eagles.
This game would be played in the Georgia Dome where Matt Ryan is 19-1. The last time Vick played on the Georgia Dome was in 2009 where he ran wild over the depleted Falcons and the Eagles won 34-7. Alothugh Matt Ryan was sidelined with an injury and Chris Redman was the Quarterback for the Falcons.
This could go either way and should go down to the wire. The Falcons may jump on the Eagles early, but Vick and his freakishness helps the Eagles soar.
Eagles 34-28 OT
Round 2: No. 6 New Orleans Saints at No. 3 Chicago Bears
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I've never really been a fan of Cutler. Maybe it's because I'm a Florida Gators fan and never like him at Vandy. Or maybe it's because the 49ers exploited his flaws last season with four interceptions. The last meeting at Soldier Field was in 2008 when the Bears rallied for an Overtime win on a Robbie Gould Field Goal to give Chicago the win 27-24.
Cutler seems to have improved some this season. The addition of Mike Martz has helped. I'm still not all that convinced Cutler can lead a talented Bears team to a Super Bowl, especially when he and his Bears have to face the Saints and Drew Brees. The QB edge definitely goes to number 9. I'll give the running game to the Chicago, and the Passing game to the New Orleans. Bears are only 4-3 at home, while the Saints are 5-2 on the Road.
Bears keep it close early, but too many turnovers lets the Saints pull away.
Saints 35 -21
Round 2: No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs
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This is one of those old-style matchup. Last season a lowly Chiefs team knocked Roethlisberger out of the game, and went on to kick a game-winning Field Goal in Overtime off the foot of Ryan Succop to give the Chiefs a 27-24 victory and snap a ten-game home losing streak.
This season, as of now the Chiefs have not lost at home. This game seems to be another old style smash mouth game. The Chiefs are one of the top rushing teams and the Steelers have one of the top run stopping defense. While the Chiefs might have an edge in the Passing game - barely - the Steelers have the edge at the Quarterback position. Big Ben leads the Steelers on a final drive and sets up a game-winning Touchdown with only a few seconds left as the Pittsburgh holds on to win.
Steelers 31-24
Semi Final: No. 9 New York Jets at No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers
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With the Jets just coming off a win against the Ravens and Patriots you'd think they'd beat the Steelers pretty handily. But the Steelers are at home in Heinz Field and played the Jets tough in the head-to-head matchup where New york escaped with a 22-17 victory.
Another defensive matchup, and it will really depend of for the Jets, which Mark Sanchez show up.
Unfortunately....
For the Steelers it's going to be the one New York fans are hoping for. Jets and Steelers go in at the half tied, but late in the third the Jets take the lead and in the fourth their defense holds on a key fourth down to preserve the win, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.
Jets 16-10.
Semi Final: No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 6 New Orleans Saints
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The Eagles and Michael Vick travel to the Bayou to face the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints. It's only fitting that the path to this season big game go through New Orleans.
The Saints and Eagles last played last season early and the Saints put on a aerial clinic. Though McNabb was out with cracked ribs, and Kolb was under center. Vick was only utilized primarily in the wildcat. After this game is when Vick was scheduled to start his first game since 2006. Seems a little odd now that were talking about a game without Vick. But that was the case. The Eagles kept it close early trailing only 17-13 at the half.
Though in the third Quarter Saints lit up the Linc with 17 points and the 14 in the 4th, to win 48-22.
Vick is familiar with the Saints though. Not sure of his win-loss record vs the Saints, but he did play for Atlanta for a few seasons.
Though it's hard to repeat as champions, and a little less hard to get back to the big game, it is hard to contain Michael Vick. Vick is a superb athlete and becoming a great Quarterback. He's not the best all Quarterback in the game, but he's probably the fastest and quickest, and maybe the most accurate mobile QB.
Eagles win on a David Akers Field Goal in Overtime to move to Super Bowl XLV.
Eagles 37-34
SUPER BOWL XLV: New York Jets Vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Well, well, we would have a former NFC and a former AFC team meeting in the NFL's Super Bowl XLV. It's Michael Vick and the Eagles offense vs the Jets and Rex Ryan's defense.
To me this seems almost like a dead lock on who could win this matchup. If the Eagles don't shoot themselves in the foot and the Jets don't put up a New England stinker, this thing could down to the wire and probably into Overtime. Though the site being Cowboys stadium, the Jets are assured to be the favorites with the crowd.
So who wins? Honestly, I'm leaving it up to you. With the following format and this matchup as the Super Bowl, who wins?
Or do the Cowboys and Jerry Jones crash the party and turn out the lights to make sure Philadelphia does not win on their home turf? lol.
So Is No Conferences The Right Answers Or Does The NFL Consider Other Options?
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Do I like this concept of getting rid of conferences? Not particularly. I mean I could definitely adjust to it. I also don't have a problem with a .500 team in the playoffs. But I do have a bit of an issue with a sub .500 team in the postseason... and I'm a 49ers fan.
Though I'm not sure I have an issue with a division winner hosting a playoff game, regardless of the record. Because if you go to a 'seedless' playoff and seed based on the win-loss percentage regardless of who one the division, then is there really a need for divisions? Not in that scenario, no.
Like I said at the start, the majority of the people complaining now about a sub .500 team (more than likely coming from the NFC West) are the same that were in great favor of the win your division and get a home game rule that is still in effect. The NFL warned the owners that switching to a 8-division format made it more likely for a 8-8 team or sub .500 team to win the division. However they did say that if it kept happening in the coming years they'd want to reevaluate the structure, and it's seem to be increasing.
I'll admit it's exciting to see a 5-9 team still in the race, but considering the inconsistent and poor play the 49ers have showed, one has to really question weather they are deserving of a playoff spot over say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants. Though should a 7-9 team like the 49ers or Rams or Seahawks get in and be one and done which is the likely scenario then everything will be somewhat 'back-to-normal'
Is a 7-9 Team Winning The Super Bowl Worse Than Them Winning Their Division?
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However should that 7-9 team go on a run and somehow get to the Super Bowl and win it, is that worse than them winning their division and making the playoffs a club with a .500 or winning record?
I think the better thing to do is keep the 8 division format and require that you must have a .500 record or above to make the playoffs. You could still win the division at 7-9, but you would not qualify for the playoffs. Instead you would insert a third (and fourth if necessary) wildcard. The division winners that qualify would be seeded accordingly #1, #2, #3, and the the three wildcards would be seeded based on win-loss percentage and head-to-head. You might still have an 8-8 host a 10-6 or 11-5 team, but there will be no 7-9 team hosting a 12-4 team. I would believe the league could adjust to this and be fine with it.
Or the easiest and simplest scenario is eliminate the wildcard positions and make it win your division and you're in. If you don't you're out. Sure it's puts four less teams in the playoffs and while it doesn't help the lowly division winner with sub .500 record out of the playoffs or not qualifying so a winning record team goes instead, it does solve that division winner from hosting a playoff game. You have the #1 Division Winner hosting the #4 division winner, and #2 hosting #3.
But until then... Go 49ers. :DI
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