NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking Teams Most Likely to Be One and Done
The NFL playoff picture is really coming into focus with only two weeks left in the regular season, and we are starting to see who the real contenders are and who is a pretender.
We know who the heavyweights are going into the postseason (New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and New Orleans).
There are a number of teams that are still in playoff contention but don't really have that certain "It" quality to them. They don't have the talent or whatever you want to call it to make any kind of run in the postseason.
By my count, there are 19 teams that have either clinched a playoff spot or still have a legitimate chance to get into the playoffs.
This list will rank all those teams in order from least likely to be one and done to most likely to be one and done in the NFL playoffs—so the NFC West will be featured prominently at the top of this list.
To see which team will be most likely to be one and done come playoff time, keep reading on.
19. New Orleans Saints
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The defending champion Saints are the least likely team to be one and done, more because of the seed that they will (likely) have and who they would play.
I believe that the Falcons win the NFC South, making the Saints the fifth seed, and they would play the four seed which will be the winner of the NFC West.
Unless something catastrophic happens to Atlanta in the next two weeks, the Saints will basically have a bye and walk into the second round of the playoffs.
18. New England Patriots
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New England’s spot on the list is more a product of how well they have played than it is an indictment of the AFC.
They will be the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will likely take on one of the two teams from the AFC South (whomever wins the division, Indy or Jacksonville) or the loser of the AFC North (Baltimore or Pittsburgh).
It’s tough to see Indianapolis or Jacksonville going into New England and winning. There are scenarios where Pittsburgh or Baltimore could beat the Patriots, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Assuming that the Steelers hold on and win the AFC North and get the other bye in the playoffs, they would get either the winner of the AFC West (KC, SD or Oak) or the sixth seed (right now that’s the Jets).
The only AFC West team that could beat Pittsburgh is San Diego, and they have work to do to get in the playoffs. The Jets just beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, but if you gave those two teams a rematch and a healthy Troy Polamalu, the Jets aren’t winning that game again.
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16. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles would love to get a first-round bye and the number two seed in the NFC. Unfortunately, they lost to the Bears, so if they finish with the same record, Chicago gets the bye.
If the Eagles don’t get the bye, they will be the number three seed and play the final Wild Card qualifier, which will likely be determined by this weekend’s Giants vs. Packers game.
If the Eagles have to play the Packers, that game would worry me a little bit because they are so good on offense and their defense is able to create turnovers.
If their game is against the Giants, the Eagles would have all the momentum. They swept the season series and pulled off one of the best comebacks that you will ever see. It’s hard to beat the same team three times in a season, but this Eagles team appears to be on a mission that stops in Dallas on February 6th.
15. Atlanta Falcons
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The Falcons can clinch everything on Monday night with a victory over the Saints. They would clinch the NFC South and the top seed in the NFC playoffs and home field throughout.
However, that doesn’t necessarily make their journey easier.
Assuming they get the top spot, they would have to play the winner of the Saints-NFC West champion game, which is basically saying that they will play the Saints. That would be a very difficult game for the Falcons to win, though they have the ability to do so because those two teams know each other so well.
14. San Diego Chargers
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If San Diego can take care of their own business and get some help from other places, they will be sitting pretty as the AFC West champs and have a guaranteed home game in the Wild Card round.
They will likely play the Jets, who will likely be the sixth seed. Last year, the Jets upset the Chargers in the divisional round.
San Diego has never been able to get over that big hump and get to a Super Bowl even though they obviously have the talent. A game against a vulnerable Jets team could be the thing that springs them toward their first Super Bowl in 15 years.
13. Green Bay Packers
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The Packers have really hurt themselves the last two weeks with losses against Detroit and New England. They need to get Aaron Rodgers back if they hope to have a chance to compete for a Super Bowl.
Their game against the Giants this weekend is their season. If they win they have the inside track to a Wild Card spot; lose and they are done.
If Green Bay gets in they can be one of the more dangerous teams in the playoffs. Their playoff game would be against either the Eagles or Bears, whichever is the three seed.
If it’s the Eagles, I would like the Packers less. If they play the Bears, I believe that they would have a great chance to win that game.
12. Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens could still get a bye if they win out and Pittsburgh loses one of their final two games. Right now they are sitting firm in the fifth spot in the AFC. That might not be the worst place for them to be. They would play the AFC South winner (Indy or Jacksonville), which would be a very favorable game for them.
If you were to ask the Ravens if losing the North Division meant playing against a banged up Colts team or a not very good Jacksonville team, I am sure that secretly they would be very happy with those matchups.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
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Kansas City has the inside track to the AFC West division title and a guaranteed first-round home game. If they are able to hold off the Chargers, and to an extent the Raiders, they will be in the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Arrowhead Stadium is a place that no team wants to go to in January. It’s cold and those fans are loud and they make things very difficult.
If things stand, they will get the three seed and play the Jets at home. That could be a pick ‘em game because the Jets, while more talented on paper, haven’t exactly inspired a lot of confidence in them lately.
10. Indianapolis Colts
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Indianapolis was able to save their season with a victory over Jacksonville last weekend. They still have a little work to do before they are officially in, but at least they are in control of their destiny.
It’s been a tough year for the Colts, but Peyton Manning has done strange things before and he can definitely do them again.
They would play the loser of the AFC South (Bal or Pit) in Indianapolis. That will be a brutal game for them because they haven’t done well against the better defenses this year, but don’t think that they can’t rise to the occasion, especially when they are playing at home.
9. Chicago Bears
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Da Bears were able to clinch their first NFC North division title since their Super Bowl season in 2006 on Monday against the Vikings. They have the inside track on a first-round bye thanks to their victory over the Eagles.
Assuming that they get the bye, their first playoff game would be against either Philly or the winner of the final Wild Card spot (GB or NYG). The only one of those games that I could see them winning would be against the Giants.
It’s tough to envision them beating the Eagles again, and they didn’t really beat the Packers in their first meeting this year—the Packers killed themselves with penalties.
8. New York Jets
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The Jets could be in a similar situation to their AFC Championship Game team of last year. That team was a sixth seed going into the playoffs and was able to put together some unbelievable performances to win a couple playoff games; they even had the Colts on the ropes for a little bit in that title game.
Should they be the sixth seed, they will play the AFC West winner (KC, SD or Oak). If they play San Diego, forget it, they are one and done.
If they get Kansas City or Oakland (yes, the Raiders still have a slim chance) that will be a much more favorable game for them because neither team is explosive on offense.
7. New York Giants
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The Giants are an enigma—that’s the best way to describe them. They could go into the playoffs and put together a run like they had in 2007 when they won the Super Bowl, they are that good. They could also get blown out against Green Bay this weekend and miss the playoffs entirely.
That’s the reason they are fairly high on this list, because I have no idea which Giants team is going to show up. They had everything going against the Eagles for 52 minutes but they completely let up and lost a 21-point lead in eight minutes.
They are dangerous, but they are also as inconsistent as any potential playoff team.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tampa Bay has been a great story for most of the year but sadly it looks like the shine is coming off this team in a hurry. They lost an overtime game to the Lions in Tampa, really putting a damper on their postseason hopes.
However, they aren’t completely buried yet. They need a lot to work out to get in, but it is still possible.
If they get in they probably won’t be much of a factor because they are still so young and they still have a number of holes that they need to fill before they can become true contenders. In a year or two they will be right there with the Falcons and Saints in the NFC South.
5. Oakland Raiders
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The Raiders have an off chance at winning the AFC West for the first time since 2002. They have to win out and hope that Kansas City and San Diego lose their remaining games. It’s really a big turnaround for this team, which has been a disaster for so long.
Their defense is good enough to win them a game in the playoffs, but their offense is so bad, aside from Darren McFadden, that it’s doubtful that they would pose a challenge to any of their potential playoff opponents.
If they were to win the West, they would get the AFC North loser (BAL or PIT) in Oakland. It would be great to see Raider Nation out in full force, but that wouldn’t be enough against either one of those teams.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jacksonville has always been a team that can beat up on the bad teams, but when you put them against a good team, or even a decent team, they will fold like a cheap tent.
Case in point, this past weekend at Indianapolis they could have won the AFC South but they played horribly and missed their opportunity.
They have to win out and hope the Colts lose one of their final games to make the playoffs.
If they do get in, they will get the Jets. That’s a game that on paper they could win, but in reality they will make a number of dumb mistakes and blow any chance that they have to win.
It’s been their formula for years.
3. San Francisco 49ers
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At 5-9, San Francisco is still very much alive in the NFC West. In fact, if Seattle loses to Tampa Bay and San Francisco beats the Rams this weekend, then San Francisco will control their own destiny going into Week 17.
San Francisco had high expectations coming into the year and it’s amazing to think that with all their struggles and all the rumors about Mike Singletary’s future they could actually make the playoffs. If they do get in don’t expect a whole lot from them.
2. Seattle Seahawks
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Seattle, much like San Francisco, doesn’t have a quarterback. They benched the struggling Matt Hasselbeck and will likely give Charlie Whitehurst a start in Tampa Bay this weekend. Yet here they are tied atop the NFC West.
Wow, this division sucks.
They would be the most likely NFC West team to win a playoff game just because Seattle is such a difficult place to play—mainly because the fans make it difficult on the opposing team, not because the Seahawks play great at home.
1. St Louis Rams
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The only reason that the Rams are above Seattle and San Francisco is because they have the inside track to win the NFC West and as a result make the playoffs.
This team has already overachieved by winning six games so far this year. Sam Bradford has hit a bit of a wall, but he looks like the real deal moving forward.
If they win the division they can celebrate because it will be something of an achievement, I guess. They should take comfort in that, though, because they aren’t getting past New Orleans, or whomever else they might play in the playoffs.
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