BCS National Championship: Why the Vegas Over/Under is Too High/Too Low

With less then a week until Christmas, two fan bases are hoping for a gift this year that they cannot unwrap until January 10th. On January 10th, the Oregon Ducks and Auburn Tigers will wrap up the college football season in the national championship and all these teams want for Christmas is the crystal ball.

When that game kicks off, more then just fans or the teams will be tuning in. People across the nation will be keeping their eyes on the scoreboard and hoping that one team covers their bet or that the teams combined will reach the current magic number of 74.

Currently, Auburn is favored by three points. While some people will try to decide which team will come out on top, others are convinced that this game will test the scoreboard. For those that believe the teams will be scoring at will, they may be tempted to bet the over on this game. Lets take a minute to examine both sides of this argument.

Too High

Most national championships have shown us one thing, with the long delay between a teams last game and the title, teams come out tight and a bit rusty. Past games have taken some time to truly open up which have led to lower scores.

You also must realize that these teams have over a month to prepare for each other. This means a month for Auburn to examine and study the Ducks fast paced offense and a month for Oregon to examine Auburn quarterback Cam Newton. Since teams don't get this far on accident, both are well coached and will be able to find ways to slow the other down.

Too Low

You have the nation's No. 1 and 6 ranked offenses and the best you can do is set a over/under at 74? Both of these teams have shown that they can score from anywhere on the field and that they can do so in the blink of an eye.

On one hand, you have an Oregon offense that prides itself on scoring and scoring quickly. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas will be ready to get after the nations 54th ranked defense. Thomas should be excited at the opportunity to pass against a defense that will be loading up to stop the run.

When looking at Auburn, they have to know that the Ducks have not encountered a quarterback like Cam Newton. Newton has some serious size and strength that could give the smaller Ducks issues. The question right now isn't if the Ducks can catch Newton, it is can they bring him down.

With all the playmakers that are on both sides of the ball, these two teams may combine for 74 by halftime. When you have LaMichael James, Darron Thomas, and Cameron Newton on opposite sides of the ball, we could be in for some fireworks.

One last thing that should be taking into consideration is that Las Vegas generally is not too far off. They have put a lot more time and effort into coming to this number then any of us ever will.

If I was a betting man and I looked at these two numbers, I would find myself staying away from picking a team but quickly selecting the over as these two teams will be ready to light up the scoreboard come January.