Risk, Rewards, Predictions: Examining Cliff Lee and The Leftover Free Agents
It has been a busy off-season thus far that has seen almost all of the coveted free agents sign with different teams.
We have seen Jayson Werth sign a massive contract with the Nationals, Carl Crawford signed a bigger contract with the Red Sox, and the Sox also acquired Adrian Gonzalez.
There are numerous free agents left on the market and only half of them are really good players. Meaning that the asking price for certain players like Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche will go up because they are the best left at their position.
So, now is the perfect time to analyze the risks, rewards, and my predictions for all the free agents that are left like Beltre and Lee.
Bengie Molina
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The Risks: There are several risks that come with Molina. Of course, with all aging players there is always injury concern and especially because he is a catcher the chance for health problems is high. You also take the risk of overpaying for one of the few remaining catchers on the market who may not turn out.
The Rewards: Bengie could have a really good offensive year and be worth the money, though I doubt it. If you are a championship contender, Molina would be an interesting addition like he was to the world series participants, the Texas Rangers.
The Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals. All the rumors I have been hearing have been that this Molina brother will be joining Yadier in St. Louis. i find this odd seeing as he would be acting as the back-up catcher.
Russell Branyan
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The Risks: He is an aging veteran who has always hit a low average and could continue to do so. He has never been a very good defensive first basemen either. Injuries have always been a concern with Branyan as he has been plagued by poor health for a while.
The Rewards: Branyan, although he hits a low average, he could be a great DH for an American League team looking for some pop. Also, Branyan won't cost much and could be a bargain basement find.
The Prediction: Oakland Athletics. Branyan and the Athletics are a match made in heaven. Branyan would provide the A's with some much needed pop and could be dealt the deadline for a younger player or two. Also, Branyan will cost very little and that works for the Athletics.
Adam LaRoche
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The Risks: You risk offering a lot of money to a player who hasn't totally proven himself but is one of the last talented first basemen left on the market. His only good year was last year and it is hard to say if he can continue the success he has had.
The Rewards: On the other hand, LaRoche could thrive on a new team and be somewhat of a bargain if he lives up to his potential. He is a versatile first basemen with quick hands and a speedy bat. Could be a solid pickup.
The Prediction: Washington Nationals: The Nationals who lost Dunn this off season are in the market for a new first basemen. The suddenly free spending Nats have already spent a ton on Jayson Werth and I don't think they would hesitate to sign LaRoche
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Derrek Lee
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The Risks: There are way too many to count, no offense to Derrek Lee. The first risk being his age and very spotty health record. He will cost quite a bit and like I said, he is old and his hitting isn't nearly as good as it used to be. Not sure if many teams are willing to pay a lot or commit to the years that Lee wants.
The Rewards: There are a few rewards. He will play an excellent first base at least defensively and like most older vets can provide leadership to a young team. Could regain form and hit home runs and drive in a lot of runs. Could be a fan attraction for certain smaller market teams as well.
The Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays. I can see Alex Anthopolous working his magic and signing Lee to a 1-2 year contract for about $15 million. The Jays would be gambling a bit but they could certainly use a well balanced first basemen like Lee.
Orlando Cabrera
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The Risks: There are a few that stick out, mainly his age and health are a bit of a concern. Also, he has had attitude problems in the past.
The Rewards: Plays a gold glove-caliber shortstop and his bat can do some damage. Probably won't cost very much and like Alex Gonzalez last year could be flipped to a contender at the deadline for younger players.
The Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates. This team makes perfect sense for me in terms of Cabrera. The Pirates are a low budget team always looking for young players. If they were to give Cabrera a shot at shortstop this year for cheap they could flip him for prospects at the deadline as I said earlier. A nice fit indeed.
Jorge Cantu
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The Risks: Cantu is a very interesting player. The risks that come with him are a high salary for more years than a team would like. He has always been a hot starter but has proven that he cannot maintain a consistent bat. Also, doesn't seem to thrive in clutch situations.
The Rewards: A versatile player who defends quite well. Has a decent bat that trails off but like I said consistency is the key. If Cantu can be consistently good for the entire season he will be a good addition to a team.
The Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks. Rumors have surfaced of the D-Backs potential interest in Cantu lately. It makes sense, as the trading of Reynolds and the probably loss of LaRoche leaves a pretty big hole at both third base and first and they are positions that Cantu can play effectively.
Edwin Encarnacion
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The Risks: The risks that come with Edwin are massive. First off, Edwin cannot play third base to save his life as he has shown over his career. Also, he hits for a very low average and is a swing or miss kind of guy. He also has some attitude problems and doesn't like sitting on the bench at all.
The Rewards: Edwin has the potential to be a great hitter. He has the right mechanics and the power but has never had it all come together for him. He has shown flashes of it in the past and if a team can get him for cheap, why not take a chance?
The Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays. Doesn't seem like a logical choice but a team that has lost Carlos Pena now needs an affordable power boost. A nice fit it would seem.
Adrian Beltre
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The Risks: Although Beltre had a sensational season last year, he still comes with one big question mark. Can he do it again? It doesn't seem to be a coincidence that Beltre has a phenomenal year almost every contract year. You risk signing him to a large contract for a lot of money and he doesn't produce or work hard because there is no motivation.
The Rewards: A strong defensive third basemen with a truck load of power. Beltre has been known to hit for a high average on occasion and hits lots of home runs and drives in a ton of runs. A great pickup if he works hard to replicate his year in Boston.
The Prediction: Texas Rangers. If the Rangers miss out on Lee I expect them to sign Beltre immediately. The future of Micheal Young might be called into question but, the Rangers could very well move to the DH spot to avoid injury.
Johnny Damon
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The Risks: An old and tired veteran who doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank. Injuries aren't much of a concern. Being a Scott Boras client could mean a lot of cash to sign Damon. Poor defense.
The Rewards: Damon has always been speedy and although not in his prime could still be an adequate threat to steal a bag or two. Also seems to be a legit clutch hitter and has been on several championship teams. A valuable leader who could pay dividends.
The Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays. Damon would almost certainly take a small pay cut for a chance to get revenge on his former teams, the Red Sox and Yankees. Maybe not revenge, but would certainly like to beat them. Damon has said that he has been wanting to play for the Rays for some time now.
Manny Ramirez
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The Risks: Where do I start? First, Manny has always been and will continue to be a massive clubhouse cancer wherever he may go. Manny will want a lot of money and a ton of incentives. His agent is Scott Boras which is never good. Ramirez cannot play defense to save his life therefore an AL team seems likely. The once great hitter has lost a ton of bat speed and power and may not be worth the investment.
The Rewards: Well, it is a big stretch but he could get back some of his old power and provide some pop for a club who is desperate. The only real other reward or upside to Manny would be the media attention for the team and the more fans that they would draw.
The Prediction: Retirement or he will have to suck it up and sign for a lot less than he is probably looking for at the present time.
Magglio Ordonez
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The Risks: Like Ramirez, Ordonez plays terrible defense and is oft injured. Ordonez is also getting up there as far as age goes and his power has been steadily decreasing.
The Rewards: Maggs could hit for an extremely high average which he has been known to do for the most part. If he stays healthy he can provide some power at only the DH position and the outfield occasionally for team needing a bat. Also, Maggs can provide some leadership in the clubhouse.
The Prediction: Nowhere. Because he is with Boras, he could be suggested to take a year off like Jermaine Dye did. It is unlikely, but something people should keep in mind.
Vladimir Guerrero
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The Risks: Overpaying for a veteran who struggles with injuries and will be a DH for the better part of the rest of his career. I emphasize the injury part of that sentence.
The Rewards: First, let me say that I love Vladimir Guerrero. I think he is one of the greatest hitters in a longtime. Vlad could provide a lot of pop in his bat and a lot of production. Brings leadership and enthusiasm to the clubhouse along with a lot of jokes and laughs.
The Prediction: Texas Rangers. Even if the Rangers sign Lee, I still see them taking Vlad because not a lot of other teams will look at him. Vlad liked Texas and Texas liked Vlad.
Carl Pavano
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The Risks: Spending a lot on a aged veteran who was in the discussion for the worst baseball contract given in history. Unknown whether he will be the Pavano who was really good or the one who was a bust.
The Rewards: Getting a bit of a bargain for a pitcher who could be a solid number two or number three guy in your rotation. Doesn't get injured much and has a lot of stamina.
The Prediction: Minnesota Twins or Los Angeles Dodgers. Not sure why but I am just getting one of those feelings that tells me that he will choose to remain hidden in Minnesota or will go Hollywood with the Dodgers.
Cliff Lee
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The Risks: There is no real risk when it comes to Cliff Lee as he is worth every penny. He has no real health problems and is in fantastic shape for his age.
The Rewards: There so many rewards when it comes to Cliff Lee. He can win 20 plus games every year and probably will win the CY Young award for the next few years. He provides leadership for the team and is fantastic in clutch situations and in the postseason. Lots of strikeouts even though he doesn't throw 100 mph has pinpoint control and a nice fastball to complement his great off speed pitches.
The Prediction: Texas Rangers: I don't care how much money the Yankees throw at him, at the end of the day I believe Lee will once again be a Ranger.
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