NFL Playoff Scenarios: Making Sense of the Wild Card Picture
NFL playoff scenarios continue to play out as the season winds down.
The playoff picture cleared up somewhat on Sunday as some of the fringe teams suffered big losses that dealt their chances big blows, while some of the teams in the playoffs right now strengthened their cases and received a little breathing room.
There are four weeks left in the regular season and a lot can still happen between now and then, as we've seen in the past. So here is what is on the agenda for the fringe teams battling it out.
New York Jets
1 of 16
Current Record: 9-2
Remaining Schedule: at NE, vs. MIA, at PIT, at CHI, vs. BUF
With the Jets, barring a major collapse, the question at this point is not will they get in, but where they will be seeded.
They're included in this list only because at the time of this posting, they were tied with the Patriots for first place and top seed in the AFC. If the Jets win, they'll have a one-game lead and have the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss, however, and with Pittsburgh and Chicago looming, might make it a little dicier.
New England Patriots
2 of 16
Current Record: 9-2
Remaining Schedule: vs. NYJ, at CHI, vs. GB, at. BUF, vs. MIA
With the exception of the Packers, the Jets and Pats have the exact same schedules going down the stretch, and a lot will depend on who wins Jets-Patriots.
If the Patriots want to win the division, they must win tonight. That puts them in first and also ties the two in terms of conference and division records. If the Patriots lose, then it's probably a Wild Card berth.
Baltimore Ravens
3 of 16
Current Record: 8-4
Remaining Schedule: at HOU, vs. NO, at CLE, vs. CIN
The Ravens now hold the tenuous position of the last Wild Card spot, but can breathe a little easier since they have a two-game lead in the Wild Card and a pretty easy schedule down the stretch.
If they want to catch Pittsburgh, they have to win and hope the Jets and either Cleveland or Cincinnati can trip up the Steelers, since Pittsburgh also has the advantage in the division and conference record.
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Oakland Raiders
4 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: at JAX, vs. DEN, vs. IND, at KC
One of four teams tied at 6-6, two games out of the Wild Card, and with Jacksonville, Indy and the Chiefs coming up, that's a hard mountain for the Raiders to climb. The two division games could help them, especially the game at Kansas City. But that's assuming the Chiefs stumble down the stretch.
The trump card for the Raiders is their 4-0 division record, which would help them in a tie. But they have to be able to keep up.
In short, the Raiders need the Chiefs to stumble and make a play for the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers
5 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: vs. KC, vs. SF, at CIN, at DEN
The Chargers needed the win Sunday against Oakland, and instead got beaten badly at home. Now they need help and lots of it.
At this point, the only real chance is the division, and their 1-3 record doesn't help. They'll need to win out, and then need help from Denver to beat Oakland and Oakland to then beat Kansas City to bring down the divisional records. Even then, it might be a stretch, considering the Patriots and Ravens are ahead in the Wild Card.
Indianapolis Colts
6 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: at TEN, vs. JAX, at OAK, vs. TEN
With three divisional games left, the Colts have a chance to get back in the playoff race. If the Colts win out, they'd be 10-6, 4-2 in the division and 8-4 in the conference. If they end up tied, it could come down to common opponents, where the Colts wins over Washington, the Giants and Chiefs could give them the edge. Jacksonville lost to the Giants and Chiefs and still hasn't played Washington. Both teams have the Raiders coming up, so to be simple, the Colts need to win out to have a chance at the AFC South.
Miami Dolphins
7 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: at NYJ, vs, BUF, vs. DET, at NE
The lowest of the group at 6-6 and under .500 in both the conference and the division. They need to hope that both the Jets and the Patriots get cold to have a chance. They play both in the last four games, so they could deal each a loss, plus two favorable games against Buffalo and Detroit. But they've been brutal at home as well.
What the Dolphins need, just to have a chance at the division, is either the Jets or Patriots to lose four straight while they win four straight. The head-to-head loss at Baltimore doesn't help, either, and Miami would need the Ravens to lose two to three games, but then other teams could jump them.
Houston Texans
8 of 16
Current Record: 5-7
Remaining Schedule: vs. BAL, at TEN, at DEN, vs. JAX
The Texans, at this point, first need to win out. Four wins would put them at 9-7, 4-2 in the division and 8-4 in the conference. The head-to-head win with the Raiders helps, as would the head-to-head win with Baltimore. But they would need some help from other teams losing as they're behind all of those teams. They would also have to hope San Diego loses a couple to bring down the conference record and downplay the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Tennessee Titans
9 of 16
Current Record: 5-7
Remaining Schedule: vs. IND, vs. HOU, at KC, at IND
The Titans are still alive, albeit barely. They're only two games back in the AFC South. Really, the division is the only hope right now, because even with a lot of help, they'd still be in bad shape.
San Diego and Miami each have head-to-head tiebreakers and even if they win out, which they need to do, they'd only be 6-6 in conference. The only hope is the division, where they would be 4-2 if they win all four games, need Jacksonville to lose at least two or three and then hope it comes down to common opponents as a tiebreaker.
New Orleans Saints
10 of 16
Current Record: 9-3
Remaining Schedule: vs. STL, at BAL, at ATL, vs. TB
A rough stretch for the Saints coming up with four teams that could very well be playoff teams. I'd expect they'd lose at least one, but they're still in very good shape. The Baltimore game is probably the loss least likely to hurt them since it wouldn't matter to the division or conference record. And with a win at Atlanta, the Saints still would have a shot at the division and a home playoff game, possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs.
New York Giants
11 of 16
Current Record: 8-4
Remaining Schedule: at MIN, vs. PHI, at GB, at WAS
The Giants have the most to lose right now. They're tied with Green Bay, which makes the matchup in two weeks huge, and are only ahead and in right now because of a better conference record. A loss along the way, especially before the Packers game, would be crushing, not only for the division but for their playoff hopes.
The best scenario for New York would be to win a couple games and for Green Bay to falter in the next week or two, which would give the Giants a little breathing room heading into Lambeau.
Green Bay Packers
12 of 16
Current Record: 8-4
Remaining Schedule: at DET, at NE, vs. NYG, vs. CHI
The Packers are in a tough spot because of their daunting schedule in the last three weeks. What makes it a little easier is that two teams they're chasing, the Giants and Bears, have tough schedules as well, so it could be the battle of attrition. It also doesn't hurt that they're playing those two the last two weeks.
If they win out, they'll be in great shape and could very well be the division winner. If they lose either this week or next week, it wouldn't be horrible because of the schedule, but they'd be in trouble.
St. Louis Rams
13 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: at NO, vs. KC, vs. SF, at SEA
Hard to believe, but right now, if the season ended today, the Rams would win the NFC West and host a playoff game.
As much as you may be wondering if we've crossed into the Bizarro World, it is true and right now the Rams hold the tiebreaker over Seattle. They meet at Qwest in the last game of the season in a game that will probably determine the division, but the Rams need to keep winning.
Four tough games lie ahead, but if there's any hope, it's that no team in this division has been able to win consistently, either.
Seattle Seahawks
14 of 16
Current Record: 6-6
Remaining Schedule: at SF, vs. ATL, at TB, vs STL
In terms of tiebreakers, the Seahawks are in good shape with a good division record and the best conference record in the division. Let's be clear—the only chance they have is the division. Four tough games where they could be the underdog in all four. Really, the Seahawks need to hope what's been happening all year continues to happen.
In short, the division continues to lose and no one really separates from the pack. If they can beat San Francisco and St. Louis, then they could very well end up winning the division, even at 8-8. They just need St. Louis to falter somewhere down the line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15 of 16
Current Record: 7-5
Remaining Schedule: at WAS, vs. DET, vs. SEA, at NO
The Buccaneers are, for the most part, done in terms in the division. Three games back of Atlanta, plus the head-to-head tiebreak and two games back of New Orleans, and probably losing the tiebreak there, too.
Their only shot is the Wild Card, and there are three winnable games on the schedule. Plus, they're only a game back. But they need to win and get some help with the Giants and Packers losing. They play each other and both have a tough schedule. Really, the best chance is for Tampa to win out or at worst win three out of four, and hope the Packers and Giants lose twice.
San Francisco 49ers
16 of 16
Current Record: 4-8
Remaining Schedule: vs. SEA, at SD, at STL, vs. ARI
Somehow, the 49ers are still alive, just two games back in the awful NFC West. But the only chance they have is the division and, even then, they probably have to win out just to have a chance. A 5-1 division record would help immensely, plus the head-to-head tiebreaker with St. Louis. But a lot needs to happen for them to have a chance, including both the Seahawks and Rams losing a couple of times.
Then again, this is the NFC West, so never say never.
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