NFL Week 13 Picks, QB Edition: Plus Chargers Talk For Raiders Week!

Before we move on to this week’s games, let’s take one last look back at the Chargers' victory over the Colts and what it means to San Diego and their chances of making the playoffs.

First of all, I would say that it dramatically increases the odds that the Chargers will make the playoffs.  Many would argue that the Colts, or possibly the Chiefs, were the only dangerous games on the Chargers schedule remaining.  However, others would say that after the losses the Bolts suffered early in the year, all teams are dangerous!

I would tend to agree with those who go into this game with caution, rather than over-confidence.  After all, over-confidence cost the Chargers dearly for the past several years.  No, I think the Colts game was a wonderful win.  But it does not mean that it is free sailing the rest of the way.

I took four things out of the Indy game that I was very pleased with.

• Philip Rivers made good decisions all night long.  The Colts decided to play deep pass defense and force the Chargers to throw short routes.  Some quarterbacks would have been stubborn and tried to force it deep.  Rivers was content with moving the chains and getting first downs.  The only negative was his inability to punch it in from within the red zone.

• The Chargers offense was able to manhandle the defensive line of the Colts.  How nice it was to see the running game clicking and the pressure and chances for picks dwindle with Mike Tolbert bowling over defenders.

• The defense, once again, baffled Peyton Manning and made him look scared and confused.  Four picks, with two returned to the house is a nice day.  That doesn’t even mention the fumble recovery as well.  Just a great day for the defense.

• The Chargers special teams looked special in the good sense of the word.  Even Nate Kaeding went out there and looked like the Kaeding we all remember (at least the regular season version).  Kaeding was five for five with a long of 50 yards.  I’ll take that every week.

Yes, the Chargers look like a different team than the one who faced Oakland in week five.  No more comedy of errors for the boys in Bolts.  As the great Walter Matthau once said, “What does that mean for the Raiders?”  I’ll tell you what it means.  It’s bad news for the Raiders! Then again, I said that last time.

Last week:  13 – 3

Season Total:  105 – 71

Let’s get to this week’s picks!  Enjoy the games!

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Al Bello/Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 02: Michael Vick #7 of the Philadelphia Eagles throws a pass against the Houston Texans at Lincoln Financial Field on December 2, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

I hate to do this to you, but this will have to be a pick you trust me on.  I picked the Eagles on my Week Pick’em game, so I will go ahead and take credit for this win.  Honestly, I figured that the home field advantage for the Eagles and the inconsistent play of the Texans would be enough for Vick and Co.

(Actual final score)

Texans  24,  Eagles  34

New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals

Jemal Countess/Getty Images

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 30: Sportsman of the Year Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and Brittany Brees attend the 2010 Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year Celebration at IAC Building on November 30, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Jemal Countes

No reason to believe that the Bengals will be able to hang with the Saints, even at home.  Saints easy.

Saints  41,  Bengals  17

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 14: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears is hit after throwing a pass by Everson Griffen #97 of the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on November 14, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Vikings 27-13. (Photo by Jonathan Dan

I actually give the Lions a chance at home in this one.  I’m not ready to pick them, but they can score points and you never know which Jay Cutler will show up.  Could be a good game.

Bears  24, Lions  20

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

MINNEAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers is chased from the pocket by the Minnesota Vikings at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on November 21, 2010 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Im

I saw that some “experts” are hoping on the 'Niner bandwagon and picking the upset here.  Yes, the Packers are one dimensional and had a tough loss last week.  That being said, Frank Gore is out for the year and Brian Westbrook is one hit away from another concussion.  Plus, the Packers are at home.

Niners  17,  Packers  31

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Chris McGrath/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 28: David Garrard #9 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks to pass against the New York Giants at New Meadowlands Stadium on November 28, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Jacksonville is playing like they actually think they have a shot at post season!  That’s a good thing because the way I see it, they do have a shot at the post season.  The Jags are playing with a lot of confidence right now and will not be intimidated by the road trip to Tennessee.  The Titans are a confused team that has had to deal with turmoil, and injuries. Collins trying to come back will help Tennessee, but not enough.

Jaguars  27, Titans  17

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Scott Boehm/Getty Images

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 21: Quarterback Matt Cassell #7 of the Kansas City Chiefs stretches against the Minnesota Vikings at Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on August 21, 2009 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Chiefs 17-13. (Photo by Scott

I would love to say that the Broncos are going to come out on fire and get a huge early lead like the last time these two teams met.  I would love to say that the Broncos air attack will give them a big enough lead to take away the ground attack of the Chiefs early.  I would love to be able to pick the Broncos to even come close to the performance that they had last time around.

I just can’t. 

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but I highly doubt that the Broncos will be able to abuse the Chiefs, in KC, especially now that the they have fallen out of the race, and their coach is looking like a cheater.  Could be the most interesting part of this  game will be the post game handshake.

Broncos  14,  Chiefs  38

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 21: Colt McCoy #12 of the Cleveland Browns leads the team out of the tunnel during a game agaisnt the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on November 21, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

I am having a very hard time picking this game.  Cleveland has not shown that they know how to win on a consistent basis.  Then again, Miami is not looking like world-beaters either.  Miami did a great job stuffing the run against the Raiders last week and will have to be able to do it again if they want to beat the Browns.

Here is the key to my pick.  Cleveland is 5-1 on the road and Miami is 1-4 at home.  In this game, Cleveland has road field advantage.  Very strange.

Browns  23,  Dolphins  20

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 28: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills throws against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ralph Wilson Stadium at Ralph Wilson Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Brett Favre better be on his game this Sunday as the Buffalo Bills come to town.  That's right, the Bills!  Buffalo is playing pretty good football, with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm.  The Bills beat the Steelers last week (okay, they lost, but they had it in the bag if not for a drop), so I think they are hungry and wanting to show the world that they are for real.

It may also help that Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin not being able to practice much this week, offensive production will fall on Brett Favre, who is nursing multiple injuries as well.

Bills  24,  Vikings 17

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

Al Bello/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 28: Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants looks to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during their game on November 28, 2010 at The New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Image

I'm done with the Redskins.  Every time I think that McNabb will be able to rise to the occasion and beat a good team, I'm disappointed. As a Chargers fan, I always look for reasons to pick against Eli Manning.  I just can't find any here.  The Giants are one of the better teams in the NFC and the Skins aren't very good in any league.

Redskins 17,  Giants  31

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers

Harry How/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - NOVEMBER 01: Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers thorws as he is rushed by Trevor Scott #91 of the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter at Qualcomm Stadium on November 1, 2009 in San Diego California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty I

Okay, here we go. 

I'm not going to make the same mistake that I made the last time these two teams got together.  Last time, which Raider fans will remember, I looked at the teams, looked at the previous weeks performances, looked at statistics, and I looked at the winning streak that the Chargers had against the Raiders. 

After looking at all of that, I determined that there is no way that the Raiders could win that game!  Two blocked punts, and three fumbles later, the Raiders walked off with an 8 point victory. 

Lesson learned.

Now, looking forward to Sunday's match-up, I look at the same things.  Let's see if we can figure out a favorite, knowing that "on any given Sunday" any team can beat any tear.

1.  The Chargers are on a four game winning streak and the Raiders are on a two game losing streak.

2.  Statistically, the Chargers have the better offense and defense between the two rivals.  Special teams edge goes to Oakland although the Chargers have greatly improved since the bye.

3.  The Raiders average five fewer points per game than the Chargers.

4.  The Raiders give up three more points per game than the Chargers.

5.  During the Chargers loss to the Raiders in Week Four, the Chargers had over 500 yards of total offense against the Raiders defense.

6.  In that same game, the Raiders blocked two field goals in the beginning of the game that lead to points.

7.  Also in that game, the Raiders forced Charger fumbles at their own one yard line and had a fumble, scoop and score within the last minute of the game to stop the Chargers drive for a possible win.

8.  Michael Bush ran for over 100 yards against the Chargers defense and he isn't even the Raiders number one back

9.  Darren McFadden did not play in Week Four, is back and carrying the load for the Raiders and has lead them to some nice victories this season.

10. Darren McFadden has gained 16 yards in his last two games.

11. The Chargers will be without Vincent Jackson, and have injuries to Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates, Mike Tolbert, and others.

12.  The Raiders will be starting Jason Campbell at quarterback and he will not have injured Bruce Gradkowski to help if he gets off to a slow start.

13.  The Raiders are 1-4 on the road.

14.  The Charges are 4-1 at home.

15.  Las Vegas has the Chargers as a 13-point favorite.

Okay, you get the point.  I have listed many of the key issues to this game. Some favor the Raiders, while most favor the Chargers.  I'm sure that I have missed some for both teams, but the trend is clear.

That being said, the one issue that matters most is that the Raiders won the last time these two teams met.  Therefore, no matter how heavily favored the Chargers are, I will not guarantee a victory for the Bolts.  However, I will certainly predict one.

Raiders 17, Chargers 31

Oh, just one more:

16.  Philip Rivers has never lost a game in December as starting quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 21: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome on November 21, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Falcons beat the Rams 34-17. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

I think this game will be closer than many predict.  The only problem that the Falcons have is playing on the road.  Not that it is a major problem, but they have not shown the dominance on the road that they do at home.  Then again, few teams do.

Even though the Bucs are playing pretty good football, they are not ready to upset a true Super Bowl contenders like the Falcons.

Falcons 27, Bucs  24

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts after a turnover to the New Orleans Saints that was overturned into an incomplete pass on a coach's challenge at Louisiana Superdome on November 21, 2010 in New Orle

This game should be decided by a coin flip, or possible a nice game of rock, paper, scissors.  That way, we would not have to watch any of the ugly football that will emanate from Seattle, Washington.

Both of these teams are not good.  The Panther have shown signs of being able to compete, and the Seahawks showed potential earlier in the year, but neither team is good.  Sorry, that's just the way it is. 

However, I need to make a prediction here, so here it goes.

I have a friend who is a Seattle fan who doesn't think the Seahawks will win another game this season.  I also see that Carolina is 0-5 on the road.  Seattle is a tough road environment.

Panthers 24,  Seahawks  27

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 21: Sam Bradford #8 of the St. Louis Rams passes against the Atlanta Falcons at the Edward Jones Dome on November 21, 2010 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Falcons beat the Rams 34-17. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Even though this game has serious playoff implications, I am not really looking forward to it.  To me, the key to this game is to have the Rams win as many games as possible, so they don't with the NFC West with a 7-9 record.

I like Sam Bradford at quarterback, so I lean toward St. Louis, even in Arizona.

Now, before you Cardinals fans get mad at me for making fun of your team, remember that I take this seriously.

St. Louis Rams 38,  Cardinals  13

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Jon Kitna #3 of the Dallas Cowboys scrambles with the ball against defensive end Turk McBride #75 of the Detroit Lions at Cowboys Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys beat the Lions 35-19

I don't know if the Colts are as bad as they looked on Sunday night, or if the Chargers just own them.  If they are that bad, I see the newly-inspired Dallas Cowboys pulling this one off.

Now, that means that the Colts, and Peyton Manning are going to lose their third straight game and their fourth out of five.  That does seem hard to believe, but let's face it, the Colts are playing with injuries to key players and they are relying on Peyton Manning to ride in on his white horse and save the day.  I'm just not sure his horse can do it alone.

Against the Chargers last week, Manning made many mistakes.  These mistakes were due to poor offensive line play for the most part.  He had a Chargers hand in his face all night.  That being said, there were some problems elsewhere as well. There were at least two key drops by wide-open receivers that would have been big plays.

By the way, yes, I agree that the referees missed some calls against the Chargers last Sunday.  To that I say, bummer.  Looking back on Chargers history with the "Holy Roller" and the "Hochuli" game, I don't feel bad for anyone.

As for the Cowboys, I like how they have played since changing head coaches. I think they have a real chance here.

Cowboys  24, Colts  20

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Larry French/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 28: Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens lead the Buccaneers at the half 17-3. (Photo by Larry French/Getty Imag

No matter who wins, I'm looking forward to this game.  Two hard-hitting rivals who want nothing more that to knock the crap out of each other.  Roger will be collecting a lot of money after this clash.

As for the winner, it's hard to say.  I don't believe that Big Ben has ever lost to the Ravens.  However, he has never played them with a broken foot before.  Also, the Ravens did win the earlier head-to-head match-up this season.

You also have to consider how close Pittsburgh was to losing to Buffalo last week.

Look for sparks to fly in Baltimore, Sunday night!

Steelers 17,  Ravens  23

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images

NEW YORK - MAY 04: NFL player Tom Brady and model Gisele Bundchen attends 'The Model as Muse: Embodying Fashion' Costume Institute Gala at The Metropolitan Museum of Art on May 4, 2009 in New York City. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images)

This is another great game as it wraps up Week 13 on Monday night.  Jets vs Patriots has a lot of interesting angles.  You have the veteran, legendary quarterback in Tom Brady, versus the young upstart in Sanchez.  You have the quite, impersonal coaching style of Bill Belichick, versus the loud and in your face style of Rex Ryan.  You have the 5-0 home record of the Pats, versus the 5-0 road record of the Jets.

You also have to consider the fact that earlier this year, the Jets spanked the Pats.  Then again, Coach Belichick normally does a great job of preparing for an opponent, especially if he lost to them earlier.

The Jets have been finding a way to win.  Overtime or late in the fourth, they just keep believing and find a way. 

The Patriots have just been out scoring their opponents.  The defense has been struggling, but the offense has been dominating.

Look for Cromartie to get torched (personal grudge that I have) and the Pats to roll.

Jets  24  Pats 34

There you have it!  Feel free to comment, I would love to discuss the games with you.  Just one request, if you talk trash, make sure that you show up after the games and eat some crow if you're wrong.  I will happily do the same.

Enjoy the games!!!