NFL Week 13 Spread Picks and Predictions
After a solid Week 11, I stumbled in Week 12 with just six wins. Looking to turn that around, there are some attractive spreads this week.
This is one of the biggest weeks in recent memory with four big-time division matchups. Kansas City finally hosts Denver after the debacle three weeks ago when Josh McDaniels attempted to embarrass Todd Haley’s Chiefs. The Chiefs will be looking to punish the Broncos for their antics, leaving them the same color as their jerseys.
The last three scheduled games of the week are the biggest. All have division implications.
The first of the trio features Josh Freeman’s Buccaneers hosting Matt Ryan’s Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons will still maintain the lead in the NFC South with a loss, but they’re looking to remain atop the NFC.
The Sunday night game features two of the most physical teams in the league: Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore as both seek to take the lead in the AFC North Division.
Finally, the biggest matchup of the week pits the New York Jets traveling to the New England Patriots. Each team is looking for the AFC East division lead and the best record in all the NFL.
Note: These spreads are based off Yahoo! Spreads as of December 2.
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8)
1 of 17
Although the Texans are on the road, this is too big a spread to pass up. The Texans have played very good football over the past few weeks and are still hoping to make a playoff push.
Andre Johnson should be fired up to go against a beatable Eagles secondary after being ejected against the Titans for roughing up Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan. The Eagles defense can be gutted by Arian Foster and picked apart by Matt Schaub to keep this game close.
The Eagles offense will have a much better day this week after a tough outing against the Chicago Bears. The Texans boast one of the worst secondaries in recent memory, so Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin should have their way all night.
Eagles win the game, but Houston covers.
Pick: Houston (+8)
New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
2 of 17
Both teams have had extra time to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving. The Saints almost lost to the Cowboys, while the Bengals were manhandled by Brad Smith, for the most part.
The Saints defense is getting healthier, but I expect Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco to bring their A-game at home this week.
Drew Brees should have his way with the Bengals defense that has failed to live up to their hype after a great 2009 campaign. The Bengals corners would give Brees fits if he didn’t have so many options to go to.
Reggie Bush showed a ton of rust against the Cowboys, so they’ll look to see if he can shake that off.
This Bengals team should have more pride than they have shown in recent weeks. Going against the defending Super Bowl champs, they need to view themselves as a dangerous squad as they have nothing to lose. They could begin to play spoilers as the Saints look to make the playoffs.
Saints still win, but the Bengals give them a run for their money, as the Cowboys did.
Pick: Cincinnati (+6.5)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+3.5)
3 of 17
The Lions should have won this Week 1 matchup, but Calvin Johnson’s touchdown was overturned.
The Bears come into this contest leading the division after a fantastic game against Michael Vick’s Eagles. They were able to contain Vick enough to give them the win. Jay Cutler dismantled the Eagles secondary. After seeing Tom Brady carve up the Lions on Thanksgiving, expect Cutler to attempt the same butchering.
If Shaun Hill (broken finger) was going to start this game, I’d lean towards the Lions as they have played very well this season.
Since it will be Drew Stanton behind center, the Bears defense should have their way this week.
Pick: Chicago (-3.5)
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San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
4 of 17
The 49ers travel to Green Bay on a short week after manhandling the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and sending Derek Anderson into an all-time postgame tirade.
The 49ers lost Frank Gore, paving the way for veteran Brian Westbrook to prove to everyone he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level. He did so against the Cardinals, but the Packers will be game-planning for his versatility.
I actually like Westbrook’s chance to top 100 total yards in this game.
Michael Turner ran through the Packers.
The 49ers, somehow, are still in their division race.
Although I don’t expect them to win, 10 points is a nice spot.
Pick: San Francisco (+9.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (Pick ‘Em)
5 of 17
As it stands right now, this game has no spread, most likely because it is unsure if Kerry Collins or Rusty Smith will start for the Titans.
After the Titans’ embarrassing loss to the Texans, I would expect Kerry Collins to start as the Titans hope to keep their playoff chance alive.
The Jaguars have actually played good football recently, winning on Hail Marys and playing the Giants close. Their rushing attack is starting to gain a lot of momentum at this point in the season behind Maurice Jones-Drew, unlike last season, where he faded down the stretch.
The Titans have too much pride under Jeff Fisher. As long as Collins starts, the Titans take this game as they finally receive production from Randy Moss.
If Rusty Smith starts, Jaguars all day.
Pick: Tennessee (Pick ‘Em)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
6 of 17
One of my most anticipated matchups after Josh McDaniels’ antics against the Chiefs three weeks ago. McDaniels sought to embarrass the Chiefs. He showboated on the sidelines with his players. When it came time for the handshake with Todd Haley, Haley refused to shake his hand, acknowledging that soon enough McDaniels’ Broncos would be visiting the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Now that that time has arrived, it’s a safe bet to assume the Chiefs will be fully focused and determined to embarrass the Broncos this time as they look to keep pace in the AFC West.
The Matt Cassel-to-Dwayne Bowe connection has been unstoppable of late. Bowe will face a tough test against Champ Bailey, but not an unbeatable one.
Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones gash the Broncos defense en route to a rout.
Pick: Kansas City (-8.5)
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
7 of 17
With Chad Henne back behind center, the Dolphins surprised me by defeating the Raiders on the road. The Dolphins have been a tough, resilient team since Tony Sparano took over as head coach.
Eric Mangini has his Cleveland Browns playing extremely well this season. Although they barely beat the lowly Carolina Panthers, the Browns' receiving points is the way to go here. Peyton Hillis has been an unstoppable monster running the football this season. Even though the Browns are on the road, they have the run game and defense to keep this game close and even win.
Pick: Cleveland (+4.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (-6)
8 of 17
The Vikings could be without their elite running back Adrian Peterson in this game. Although Toby Gerhart is a nice replacement, he won’t scare the Bills.
The Bills are playing great football and should have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 12 if Steve Johnson hadn’t had that “divine” drop of epic proportions.
The Vikings will play with more pride after winning Leslie Frazier’s coaching debut, but the Bills getting six points is a nice spot.
Pick: Buffalo (+6)
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-7)
9 of 17
The Giants were forced to simplify their offense due to injuries to starting wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. They also made the switch to Brandon Jacobs as the starting running back as opposed to Ahmad Bradshaw, who was having issues fumbling the ball.
It worked out for New York as they pulled out the home win against the Jaguars.
The Giants defense should give Donovan McNabb fits all day. The Redskins do not have the offensive line to match up against the Giants’ athletic defensive linemen.
The Giants win to stay tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East division.
Pick: New York (-7)
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-13)
10 of 17
The Chargers are gaining a lot of momentum as they continue to play the same song as the past few years. They started the season slow, but are getting hot at the right time. They lost Vincent Jackson in his debut, but Philip Rivers has played at an MVP level all season without him.
The Raiders are going the opposite way. They are starting to slump at the wrong time after eyeing the division crown in the middle of the season.
Darren McFadden hasn’t run the same over the past two weeks, but I expect him to finally turn it on again.
Rookie Jacoby Ford had a fantastic game last week, catching over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown while returning a touchdown in the game.
The Chargers win as they continue their surge, but 13 points is too much to pass up.
Pick: Oakland (+13)
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
11 of 17
The Cowboys have finally played good football since Jason Garrett took over as interim head coach.
The Colts have been on the losing side the past two weeks as Peyton Manning has thrown seven interceptions combined in those games. He won’t have to worry about that as much this week as the Cowboys defensive backs couldn’t catch a cold, it seems.
The Colts are still dealing with injuries, but need this win to stay in the thick of the AFC South race.
The Cowboys have the offense and special teams with Dez Bryant to keep this a close game despite playing on the road.
Pick: Dallas (+5.5)
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+3)
12 of 17
After the Cardinals were embarrassed against the 49ers Monday night, sending Derek Anderson into an epic postgame tirade, the Cardinals will want to prove they still have some pride left.
Unfortunately, that won’t happen against Sam Bradford’s Rams.
Bradford will use his amazing accuracy with his mediocre receivers to pick apart an underachieving Cardinals defense. Steven Jackson will make sure the Cardinals don’t have a chance to come back as he pounds the Cardinals defense and runs the clock.
Pick: St. Louis (-3)
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
13 of 17
The Panthers played the Browns surprisingly tough last week. Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart worked well together. They should be able to find a lot of running room against the Seahawks.
Although the Seahawks have been blown out the past two weeks, the Panthers don’t have the defense to keep the Seahawks from soaring in this one. Mike Williams could be back, but it shouldn’t matter. Ben Obomanu has three touchdowns in the past four games as Matt Hasselbeck has played better football.
After Peyton Hillis demolished the Panthers on the ground, I would expect Pete Carroll to turn to Marshawn Lynch as his workhorse back.
Seattle gets the right matchup to get back on track in the NFC West division.
Pick: Seattle (-6)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
14 of 17
The first of the three premier games of the week.
This is a big division matchup as the Bucs look to keep pace with the Falcons and Saints for the playoffs and NFC South division title.
The Falcons have played great football recently, but their streak comes to an end as the “Young Bucs” avenge their road loss earlier in the season.
The Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection has been just about unstoppable, but Ronde Barber and Talib Aquib are playing toward the top of their games at the moment. Josh Freeman makes enough big plays to pull out the close win.
Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
15 of 17
Sunday’s primetime game should be the most physical of the week. These are two of the top defenses in the league vying for first place in the AFC North division.
Ben Roethlisberger hobbles in with a sprained foot, but is expected to play. That is all Ray Lewis’ ferocious and unforgiving defense needs: a bullseye on the opposing quarterback. It is difficult to assume how Roethlisberger’s mobility will be affected by the injury.
The Steelers almost lost to the Bills last week, escaping with a 16-13 overtime victory thanks to a drop in the end zone by Steve Johnson.
The Steelers had this matchup won earlier in the season, but Joe Flacco connected with T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the final seconds to stun the Steelers on the road.
Now at home, expect Anquan Boldin, one of the game’s most physical receivers, to reemerge after a couple of quiet weeks.
Pick: Baltimore (-3)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
16 of 17
The Jets defense created three turnovers on Tom Brady in the first matchup. Randy Moss made a one-handed touchdown grab for the ages, but he isn’t on the team anymore, giving Darrelle Revis a much easier matchup against Wes Welker or Deion Branch.
Rex Ryan’s defense is going to attack Brady all night. Brady is playing in MVP form, but the Jets should disrupt him enough for a costly turnover or two.
While this game will be closer than the first being that the Jets are on the road, they manage to win on the legs of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene.
Pick: New York (+3.5)
Picks
17 of 17
Houston Texans (+8) @ Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5)
Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (Pick ‘Em)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-7)
Oakland Raiders (+13) @ San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
St. Louis Rams (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots
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