NFL Playoff Scenarios: What Top 18 Teams Must Do to Make the Playoffs
The NFL playoff picture begins to take shape as we enter December and teams fall out of the race. The questions turn more toward seeding rather than who actually will be in the postseason dance.
But at this point, there still are a lot of questions about who will make the cut. The Bears and the Packers are duking it out for the NFC North while the Giants and Eagles jab at each other for the NFC East.
In the AFC, the Steelers and Ravens face off for control of the AFC North this week while the Patriots and Jets do the same on Monday Night Football for the AFC East.
Then there's the NFC West...the less said the better.
So here are the 18 teams still in the playoff race, but the first few are in critical condition and fading fast, so don't get your hopes up.
18. Tennessee Titans
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Yes, the Titans still are in the playoff race despite everything that's happened to them the last few weeks. Just remember that at the end of October, the Titans looked like a lock to make the postseason.
Now they're 5-6 and share the bottom of the AFC South with the Texans.
Basically, the Titans have to win the rest of the season and hope they can get a Wild Card, because it's unlikely at this point they can win the division back from Jacksonville or Indianapolis.
17. Seattle Seahawks
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The NFC West is an absolute joke this year, so even at 5-6, the Seahawks have a share of the NFC West lead with the St. Louis Rams.
As dumb as it sounds, all the Seahawks have to do is win more games than the Rams, because there won't be any Wild Card berths coming out of this division.
16. Indianapolis Colts
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The Indianapolis Colts are 6-5 and now guaranteed to have their worst season in almost a decade. There are two reasons for this: injuries and Jim Caldwell.
Colts fans should be able to recognize Caldwell was outcoached in the Super Bowl last year, and that he's completely unprepared to deal with this amount of injuries.
So what I'm saying is Tony Dungy still could have guided this team to the playoffs with the same amount of injuries. That's just an opinion and if you disagree with it, fine, I'm not going to argue.
Peyton Manning is shouldering much more of the burden than he should be, partially because it doesn't look like there's much help coming in from the sidelines. The only way to stop the Colts' tumble is for Caldwell to step up and ask for help.
Otherwise, the Colts need the Jaguars' miracle finishes to disappear while pretty much running the table the rest of the season.
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15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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At 7-4, the Buccaneers look like they're going to duke it out with the Saints for a Wild Card berth since, barring a collapse, the Falcons have this division solidly within their grasp.
The Buccaneers are 0-4 against teams with winning records going into this weekend's action, so the road before them actually is very clear.
The Bucs have to win this week in Atlanta, or it's a Wild Card at best, which may be easier to get with how bad the NFC West is. That automatically eliminates one team from the race.
14. San Diego Chargers
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With the way the Chargers are playing, the rest of the AFC West better pay attention. After their typically slow start, the Chargers are playing like a playoff team again.
The Chargers are 6-5 now, 1-2 in their division, but so are the Chiefs. The Chargers face Oakland and then Kansas City, and if they win even one of those two games, their chances of getting a Wild Card increase dramatically.
If the Chargers win both, they could move into the division lead.
If the Chargers lose both, they may run themselves out of the playoffs.
Hey! What About the Raiders?
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Mathematically, the Raiders still are in the playoff hunt, but they're two games out of the division lead with five to play. Their game against the Chargers this weekend is a must-win.
In fact, because the Chargers and Chiefs are playing so well, every game pretty much is a must-win at this point, even though they're 3-0 in the division.
When you break down the math, the Raiders already have a 95 percent chance of missing the playoffs, while the Chargers only have a 61 percent chance of staying home (No, I didn't make those numbers up).
13. St. Louis Rams
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Sam Bradford hasn't just turned the Rams around, he's made them into a playoff contender. Granted it's the NFC West, but division winners make the playoffs.
As with the Seahawks, all the Rams have to do is win more games than Seattle. The Cardinals and 49ers really don't enter into this conversation and there will be no Wild Card team coming from the NFC West.
That's a good thing.
12. New Orleans Saints
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The Saints got off to a slow start and now they're paying for it, because even at 8-3 they're in second place to the 9-2 Falcons.
The Saints can win the division or end up with a Wild Card if they keep playing as well as they have the last few weeks. But they can't lose more than a game or two, or the Buccaneers may swoop in and take that Wild Card spot the Saints probably would end up with.
Winning the division isn't out of the question, but the Falcons would have to have a December collapse for that to happen, which seems unlikely at this point.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Jacksonville Jaguars all of a sudden are in control of the AFC South. The Texans and Titans collapsed pretty quickly while the slow crumble of the Colts continued as that team got decimated by injuries.
The Jaguars have been pulling one miracle finish after another out of their bag of tricks, but that bag can't dry up because the Colts still can be very dangerous. If the Titans get Kerry Collins back this week and start winning games again, the Jaguars are going to have a fight on their hands.
As always, when you're a division leader, the road to the playoffs means not losing division games at the end of the year.
10. Chicago Bears
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All of a sudden, the Bears are legitimate contenders. This isn't meant as a knock against the Bears, nor should Bears fans take offense.
When you look at the early part of the Bears' season, they had some lucky wins and they were getting slapped around by other good teams in their losses.
But now the Bears offense suddenly is legit—although I wouldn't bet any money on that offensive line—and the Bears defense is just as good as any other playoff contender.
The Bears definitely have a Wild Card in their grasp at this point, and they have to keep winning division games while hoping the Packers keep racking up the penalties and losing games they should win.
At this point, only a complete collapse will keep the Bears out of the postseason.
9. Kansas City Chiefs
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The most unexpected playoff-bound team of the year continues to impress and surprise. The Chiefs now lead the AFC West, and other than the unexpected blowout by the Broncos, they look like there's nothing stopping them from earning a bye week in the playoffs.
The coaching talent on the sidelines coupled with the talent on the field is coming to fruition a year earlier than many expected, but the Chiefs have one of the best running games in the league, a quarterback who looks better every week and the two best coordinators in the league.
The Chiefs can't afford to lose more than one game down the stretch here, or they could be fighting for a Wild Card. The Chargers are mounting a huge challenge, and there still is that remote possibility the Raiders can come back.
However, the Chiefs look like they can handle it, and it's going to be up to the Chargers to take the division crown from the Chiefs.
8. Green Bay Packers
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The Packers, now 7-4 and one game behind the Bears, have lost two games this year due to self-inflicted wounds, including one to those Bears.
The Packers have no running game due to injuries, but Aaron Rodgers has been leading the Packers to victory by pure force of will some weeks.
The Packers have to stop committing stupid penalties, especially late in the game, and they need to beat New England in a few weeks to keep their credibility, as wins over San Francisco and Detroit should be givens at this point.
Needless to say, losing to any of the last two teams mentioned should be grounds to have the Packers removed from the playoff picture entirely.
7. New York Giants
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The Giants share the division lead in the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles, but that only means their road to the playoffs is that much tougher because it's doubtful the Eagles are going anywhere.
The Giants have two divisional games in the next three weeks and one of them is against the Eagles. Three weeks from now, we'll know if the Giants are going to win the division or if they're playing for a Wild Card.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The fight almost every year in the AFC North ends up being the Steelers and the Ravens, and this year is no exception.
The Steelers are banged up right now, and a collapse like last year's is not out of the question. It's the dirty little secret most honest Steelers fans don't want to talk about.
However, we're not there yet. We are at the biggest game of the year, though, as the Steelers take on the Ravens this Sunday. With identical records, and the Ravens already up one game on the Steelers, this game determines who controls the AFC North and who fights with the rest of the conference for a Wild Card.
The good news is the Steelers are 5-0 against the Ravens when Ben Roethlisberger starts. The bad news is Roethlisberger is in a walking boot at the moment. Even though Head Coach Mike Tomlin said Roethlisberger will start, that doesn't mean Ben will finish.
Should be a great game.
5. Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens, like the Steelers, have a good portion of their season resting on what happens this Sunday.
There's not much more to add, because what I said about the Steelers pretty much applies here. The winner of Sunday's game has control of their own destiny; the loser has to fight for a Wild Card spot and hope the other team loses the rest of the way out.
The Ravens and Steelers also have to keep in mind there's a chance the Wild Card teams may come out of the East and West, and that one of these two will be home in January.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
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Michael Vick and the Eagles have been one of the most exciting teams in the league this year, but the loss to the Bears last Sunday threw a monkey wrench into their Cinderella season.
The Eagles face off against the Houston Texans on Thursday, and there's no excuse for the Eagles to lose against the Texans and the lousy defense that team has this year.
Following that game are divisional games against Dallas and the Giants. Like in the AFC, the Giants game will determine a division winner, and who fights for the Wild Card. The Eagles have to go 3-0 to be the division winner.
3. New York Jets
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The Jets and the Patriots are making every week in the NFL more fun. Their clash this weekend will go a long way to determining who is the division winner, but with the Jets winning the first meeting, a Patriots win only muddies the waters.
The Dolphins and the Bills are out of this race, so depending on how each team plays down the stretch, a Patriots win doesn't guarantee anything.
But a Jets win cements their division lead, and the Patriots are reduced to fighting for a Wild Card berth.
The Jets have had some incredible luck this year, but supporters would argue good teams make their own luck.
The Jets can't lose this week, and they don't have a lot of wiggle room down the stretch if they do lose with the Ravens, Steelers, Chargers and the Colts all fighting for playoff spots.
2. Atlanta Falcons
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The Falcons are the best team in the NFC at the moment, and that's hard to debate given their 9-2 record and the multiple weapons they have on offense.
The NFC South is theirs to lose at this point, but even if the Saints overtake them, they've already beaten the Buccaneers once and they play them again this Sunday.
If the Falcons win, that pretty much means they've locked up a playoff position, a Wild Card at worst, and they can start planning on trying to secure a first-round bye.
1. New England Patriots
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The Patriots will be the first to tell you they haven't accomplished anything yet, and that's true from a playoff standpoint. The Patriots haven't locked up any playoff spots yet despite their record, and because the Jets are playing so well, the Patriots can't afford to lose any games if they want to make the playoffs.
A win this Sunday will give the Patriots a slight edge in the division, but they won't have any room to breathe because their divisional record will be the same as the Jets.
Should the Patriots lose, it's a Wild Card for New England and the rest of the AFC better beware. There's nothing scarier on the sidelines than an angry Bill Belichick.
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