NFL Picks Week 13: Top 10 Shockers You'll Never See Coming
The NFL Picks Week 13 feature some fantastic contests between some of the NFL's best teams. With important games in New England, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and New Jersey, it's sure to be a thrilling week of football.
A closer look at the games reveals that in many cases, the team that is favored could be in line for quite a shock when it gets to the stadium.
To show you which shockers will actually accomplish their upset bids, we're breaking down every NFL game and ranking them based on their "Shock Factor" or the likelihood of an upset taking place.
We've got plenty of ground to cover here, so let's get started.
16. Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
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Who’s the Favorite: The Colts find themselves as six-point favorites in this one.
Why Dallas Will Win: The Cowboys are not the same team that started the season 1-7. They've won two of three since Jason Garrett took over as head coach and have looked like a much improved team. The Colts are reeling right now and look primed to take another loss.
Why Indianapolis Will Win: The Colts get the Cowboys at Lucas Oil Stadium where they're 4-1 on the season. The Cowboys' offense still isn't great and their defense is still pretty terrible. Even with no healthy receivers, quarterback Peyton Manning will have a field day with Dallas' awful secondary.
Shock Potential: 1/10. No way, no how does an upset happen here.
Final Score: Indianapolis 35, Dallas 21. The Colts have too many weapons for Jon Kitna and the 'Boys to keep up.
15. St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
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Who’s the Favorite: There's no line on this one yet, but the Rams have to be considered the favorites here.
Why St. Louis Will Win: The Rams are the class of the NFC West (not that that's saying all that much), and the Cardinals are in serious trouble on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Sam Bradford is looking better every week, and the Rams defense should be able to lock down Arizona's offense with ease.
Why Arizona Will Win: The Cards do still have Larry Fitzgerald and the Rams are 1-4 on the road.
Shock Potential: 1/10. Nope. Not this week. The Rams are too good and the Cardinals are struggling to do anything productive.
Final Score: St. Louis 28, Arizona 21.
14. Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
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Who’s the Favorite: Seattle comes in as the favorites, according to the oddsmakers.
Why Carolina Will Win: The Panthers can run the football and Seattle's defense has been a hot mess for much of 2010. Their defense isn't great, but surely they can muster the strength to neutralize Zombie Matt Hasselbeck, right?
Why Seattle Will Win: Seattle is definitely the better team, although in a stinker like this, that's not saying much. The Seahawks are playing at home, and they're a much better home team than they are a road club.
Shock Potential: 3/10. While it would be shocking if the Panthers snagged a win in Seattle, it's just not going to happen.
Final Score: Seattle 28, Carolina 17. The Seahawks might not have much, but they've got more than the Panthers do at this point.
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13. New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals
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Who’s the Favorite: The Saints are the favorites here, despite playing on the road.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: If the Bengals play like they did in the first half against the Jets, they could easily stage the upset here. The talent is there, they just need to figure out how to use it.
Why New Orleans Will Win: The Saints are the better team on both sides of the ball. While Cincinnati knocked the Jets around for two quarters, they had to play two more and promptly collapsed. New Orleans' offense, led by quarterback Drew Brees, is much more potent than New York's, so the Bengals' defense is in trouble.
Shock Potential: 4/10. This would be quite a feat for the Bengals, but I just don't see it happening this season.
Final Score: New Orleans 35, Cincinnati 27. The Bengals offense fails them once more when it counts.
12. San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
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Who’s the Favorite: Green Bay enters today as favorites over the Niners.
Why Green Bay Will Win: The Packers are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. With no Frank Gore to torment the Packers, Green Bay's defense will run amok against San Fran's offense. Plus, the game's at Lambeau and the Niners are 1-4 away from home this year.
Why San Francisco Will Win: The Niners still have talent in the backfield in Brian Westbrook, and their defense is stingy. The Pack got knocked back a bit after last week, so they're in prime position to get knocked again at home.
Shock Potential: 4.5/10. While it would be quite an impressive win for San Fran, the odds of taking this one took a massive hit when Frank Gore went down.
Final Score: Green Bay 28, San Francisco 14. The Niners just can't keep up at the frozen tundra.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
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Who’s the Favorite: Jacksonville, although the lines are even.
Why Jacksonville Will Win: When Rusty Smith might be your starting quarterback, you have no business winning this one. Jacksonville is looking strong offensively, thanks to running back Maurice Jones-Drew finding his stride in the second half of the season.
Why Tennessee Will Win: Rusty Smith or no Rusty Smith, Tennessee has Chris Johnson running the ball and Jacksonville isn't exactly a staunch defensive squad. The Titans' defense is good enough to lock down the Jags' offense.
Shock Potential: 5/10. While there could be an upset, it wouldn't be much of one, since the line is dead even.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 21. The Titans still have no passing game, which kills them.
10. Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
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Who’s the Favorite: The Chargers are heavy favorites in this one.
Why San Diego Will Win: The Bolts' are one of the best teams in the NFL statistically. Their offense is capable of blowing up Oakland's defense. Given what the Chargers did to Peyton Manning last week, imagine what their defense could do to Bruce Gradkowski. Scary, right?
Why Oakland Will Win: The Raiders have Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and the speed in their receiving corps to punish San Diego over the top.
Shock Potential: 6/10. This would be quite a stunner since San Diego is one of the NFL's hottest teams, and Oakland is one of it's coldest. But therein lies the rub, since Oakland has come crashing down to Earth in recent weeks, while the Chargers are taking off.
Final Score: San Diego 27, Oakland 24, OT. The Raiders push the Bolts to the limit, but can't seal the deal.
9. New York Jets @ New England Patriots
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Who’s the Favorite: New England is four-point favorites, according to the oddsmakers.
Why New England Will Win: The Patriots are one of football's best teams, and they've got the kind of offense that gives the Jets fits. When you throw to multiple players, the Jets tend to struggle with coverage. Plus, the Pats get the Jets in Foxboro, where they're 5-0 this season. The Jets have been dodging bullets for four weeks now. It'll be tough to do that against New England.
Why New York Will Win: The Jets beat the Patriots once this season and they're playing much better now than they were then. The defense keeps getting better and the offense is starting to jell, even if it's only in the second half.
Shock Potential: 6.5/10. It's not much of a shock when one of the NFL's best beats another one, but an upset is highly possible here.
Final Score: New England 28, New York 27. The Jets push to the limit, but can't quite finish off the Pats.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
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Who’s the Favorite: Baltimore is currently listed as the favorites in this one.
Why Pittsburgh Will Win: The Steelers are one of the NFL's best teams and they're out to pass the Ravens in the standings. The best way to do it is with a win here. The defense can shut down the Ravens offense, while the Steelers offense is capable of wreaking havoc all over the field.
Why Baltimore Will Win: The Ravens might be the better team this season. Their offense is balanced, their defense is solid and they're just about unbeatable at home. Put all of it together, and you've got a recipe for a win here.
Shock Potential: 6.5/10. Once again, it's not an upset when one of the NFL's best beats another of the NFL's best.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 21, Baltimore 20. The Steelers eke out a win thanks to their ball-hawking defense.
7. Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
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Who’s the Favorite: Kansas City comes into today as the favorite.
Why Denver Will Win: The Broncos beat the pants off of Kansas City once already and we know the Chiefs can't hang with Denver's wideouts. The Broncos' defense isn't quite as awful as it was four weeks ago (although it's still pretty terrible), and Kansas City doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Denver in a shootout.
Why Kansas City Will Win: Odds are good that the Broncos won't jump out 28-0 on Kansas City this week, which favors the Chiefs. With the game in reach, Kansas City's game-plan gets more balanced and can take advantage of all aspects of the Broncos' crappy defense.
Shock Potential: 7/10. The Broncos have beaten them once, which hurts the shock potential, but an upset is a very real possibility.
Final Score: Denver 24, Kansas City 21, OT. The Broncos get them again, thanks to a potent passing attack few can contain.
6. Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Who’s the Favorite: Atlanta comes in as the favorite here.
Why Atlanta Will Win: The Falcons beat the Bucs earlier this season and their balanced offense will give the Tampa defense fits all day. The defense is solid against the run and the Falcons have been the NFL's best team through 12 weeks of the season.
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: Tampa's offense is capable of hanging with anyone and the Falcons' secondary has been getting smoked in recent weeks. Bucs' quarterback Josh Freeman is capable of pulling off the upset and they get Atlanta at home this time around, which could make the difference.
Shock Potential: 7/10. It would be surprising, but not exactly earth-shattering if Tampa scored the upset, which is highly possible.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 27, Atlanta 24. The Bucs score a big win at home behind Freeman, whose late game heroics do the trick.
5. Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
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Who’s the Favorite: The Giants enter Tuesday as the favorites in this one.
Why New York Will Win: The Giants are easily the superior ballclub, on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. They have the weapons to torch Washington's shaky secondary and a run game capable of having a big day. Their defense has been fierce and it is one of the league's better units, statistically speaking.
Why Washington Will Win: Somehow, some way, the Redskins find ways to score major wins over good teams. They hold victories over Green Bay, Philadelphia, Chicago and Tennessee and have been playing teams close all season long.
Shock Potential: 8/10. Washington doesn't have the weapons to keep up with the Giants, and so an upset, while possible, is also a big deal.
Final Score: Washington 17, New York 14. Somehow, some way, the Redskins pull out another win.
4. Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles
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Who’s the Favorite: Philadelphia enters this one as the favorite.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: The Eagles are capable of putting up gaudy numbers throwing the ball or rushing it and Houston is powerless to stop them defensively. Michael Vick has been giving teams fits all season. Why should that change with a shoddy Texans' defense?
Why Houston Will Win: The Texans have the offensive capability to keep up with the Eagles, and Philly's defense isn't exactly stellar either. With running back Arian Foster, the Texans now have the means to punish the Eagles' shoddy run defense. If things turn into a shootout, Houston's had a bit more experience, so the Texans have an advantage.
Shock Potential: 8.5/10. This would be quite a shock, as it means the Texans' defense stopped Philly long enough for Houston to take a lead.
Final Score: Houston 42, Philadelphia 35. The Texans get the ball last.
3. Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
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Who’s the Favorite: Miami enters this one as the favorite.
Why Cleveland Will Win: The Browns have been much better than their record would have you believe in 2010, and running back Peyton Hillis can blow through even the toughest of defenses. Cleveland's defense is perfectly capable of shutting down the 'Fins' scattershot offense, and it has scored wins on the road already this season.
Why Miami Will Win: The Dolphins can throw the ball again, with Chad Henne healthy, and the Browns' defense is softer against the pass. The Miami defense has been excellent all season and Cleveland's offense doesn't exactly inspire fear in opponents, especially with pick-master general Jake Delhomme starting.
Shock Potential: 9/10. The Browns have struggled on the road, other than their upset of New Orleans, and Miami's a tough nut to crack. An upset would go a long way towards boosting morale up on Lake Erie.
Final Score: Cleveland 21, Miami 14. The Dolphins find themselves shut down by Cleveland's defense.
2. Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
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Who’s the Favorite: The Vikings come into this one as the favorites.
Why Buffalo Will Win: The Bills offense is clicking right now and Minnesota's pass defense has struggled for much of 2010 against the deep ball. The Vikings are still smarting from that lackluster start, and if they get down early, they could easily call it quits on the game.
Why Minnesota Will Win: The Vikes are the more talented team and their offense will torment Buffalo all game long. Brett Favre has his full cadre of receivers back, and Adrian Peterson, while banged up, is still Adrian Peterson. Defensively, Minnesota has a decided advantage on the Bills' offense talent-wise and ought to come out on top in this one.
Shock Potential: 9.5/10. The Vikes are in desperation mode for a playoff berth, Buffalo's playing for pride. Sound like an upset to anyone else? In other words, while it would be a big upset, it's not out of the question by any means.
Final Score: Buffalo 24, Minnesota 20. Adios, Vikings' playoff hopes.
1. Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
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Who’s the Favorite: Chicago comes in as the heavy favorite here.
Why Detroit Will Win: The Lions pushed the Bears to the brink in Week 1, only to have victory taken from them by one of the most confusing rules in the book. Nothing has changed for them offensively. Why should they play the Bears any worse than they did in their first meeting?
Why Chicago Will Win: The Bears have gotten much sharper offensively and defensively since then and the Lions don't have anything resembling a functional defense. Chicago, on the other hand, has a defense fully capable of shutting down Detroit's offense.
Shock Potential: 10/10. Detroit knocking off the division leader would be quite the shock, don't you think?
Final Score: Detroit 28, Chicago 21. The Lions score payback on the Bears for Week 1.
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