Virginia Tech vs. Virginia: Preview of the Commonwealth Cup

As even the fair-weather college football fans will tell you, Thanksgiving week is rivalry week. Thursday night provided fantastic entertainment with Texas A&M sealing the postseason fate of rival Texas and giving them Mack Brown’s first losing season since joining the Longhorns staff in 1998.

Everyone watched Auburn, Oregon and Boise State fight to keep their National Championship hopes alive on CBS and ESPN. They were all fantastic games, especially the Iron Bowl.

But there are a lot more rivalries than the high-profile ones, and many of those games have seen better games—take Washington vs. Washington St. in the Apple Cup, for example.

To the people of Virginia and the alumni of their biggest schools, the Commonwealth Cup is a statewide event with little national relevance given Virginia’s record. The rivalry game will be aired on the ACC Network. Ouch. It’s not Georgia vs. Georgia Tech and certainly not Michigan vs. Ohio State, but the game should be more available to the public.

The game will return to Blacksburg, and the fans who return with it will be bringing a lot of passion and noise. The game will likely be over capacity as scalped student tickets are starting at $50 and regular admission at $75. Get to the game early or else you’ll be stuck listening to it on the radio while stopped on I-81.

The season hasn’t been ideal for either team, a fact that’s more disappointing to Hokie fans. We’ve all heard about it enough, the National Title hopes gave way to embarrassment within a week and now the Hokies have clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game next Saturday in Charlotte. Side note: get your tickets early for that too, they are selling and they are selling fast.

For the Cavaliers, new coach Mike London was really hoping to make a splash in the ACC, but would be content with just beating an FCS team and pulling off an upset at some point during the year. Surpringsly enough, UVA has done those two things while Virginia Tech hasn’t.

Yeah, it’s been an odd season. The Wahoos defeated Richmond to open the season and then laid a huge hit on Miami QB Jacory Harris which, combined with a fantastic defensive effort, propelled them over the Hurricanes in Charlottesville as London shed some tears from the sideline.

I warned that at the beginning of the year Virginia would be a tough game. Rivalry games can really turn any way, but there are plenty of other reasons to be concerned for the Hokies. Their “gauntlet” of a November, which went from three preseason ranked teams to just the No. 24 team, has come and gone and Virginia Tech never played well in the opening quarters—it’s kind of been our thing this season.

The final quarters, the fourth especially, have been simply spectacular. During Tech’s nine-game winning streak, the Hokies' defense has only allowed 10 points in the fourth quarter and had an absolute field day against North Carolina and Miami.

Virginia’s defense has been sporadic at best and downright awful at worst, especially against the run. That bodes well for the trio of Hokies' backs and senior QB Tyrod Taylor. He has played lights-out this season and would be a first-or second-round draft pick if he was four to five inches taller. He’s the undisputed leader of the team and this is his final game in Lane Stadium.

Virginia Tech is far and away the more talented team and it would take a perfect storm to derail the Hokies, but it already happened once this year against JMU. There are two recipes for the upset: Virginia opens the game with a group of big plays and goes up by two scores before the end of the first which hypes up their defense, or Virginia Tech turns the ball over too many times in inopportune places.

The ladder was the cause against JMU with the Hokies turning the ball over three times on the Dukes' side of the field. Ever since we played Enter Sandman twice against Georgia Tech, the superstition meter has been off the charts and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hokies go down by double digits early. It’s not like they haven’t already this season.

But in every game except the first, Virginia Tech has bounced back to get a win and the betting man’s smart play is to go with the Hokies. With the Coastal division, not having seen their team in two weeks and playing Virginia will have the crowd on their feet. The Hokies have the talent to make it ugly against a young Cavaliers squad.

Look for the Hokies to come out flat on defense in the first half but for Tyrod Taylor and the offense to march down the field on Senior Day and at least keep up with UVA. Depending on which defense comes to play for both Virginia and Tech, the Hokies could be up before halftime—but history begs to differ.

Tech has been uncomfortably close at halftime the past three years. Expect the UVA defense to tire and for someone to break a big run or have a big return to squash Virginia’s hope and spark a Virginia Tech rout.

Don’t think the Hokies will come out without passion. Taylor, John Graves and Rashad Carmichael will have their team ready to play so at the bare minimum the game comes down to the wire.

Even if this wasn’t a rivalry game, it still favors the Hokies. But with the Enter Sandman curse still lurking about, and as the Hokies’ season has shown, nothing is ever set in stone. Be sure to tune into the ACC Network (?!?) at noon Eastern time for a fantastic game.

Favorite: Virginia Tech – 82 percent

Predicted Score: 48–17 Virginia Tech