NFL Week 12 Picks: Thanksgiving Tripleheader Special Edition
The NFL Week 12 picks are here as the Week 11 games have concluded.
It's a long week of games with three on Thanksgiving, and now we get to see which teams respond better to the short week.
The Steelers and the Browns play the Bills and the Panthers. Does anyone smell an upset brewing in either game?
The biggest game of the week definitely has to be Green Bay versus Atlanta. Both teams are riding high, both teams have Super Bowl aspirations and it's a potential NFC Championship Game preview.
Michael Vick and the Eagles take on Jay Cutler and the Bears, so we'll see how Vick does against the Bears defense.
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 103-57
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (Turkey Day Part 1)
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This just isn't a good matchup, and I have no idea what the schedule makers were thinking putting this game on Thanksgiving Day.
The Lions still are a developing team and, even when completely healthy, this would've been a mismatch. But Matthew Stafford is out and the Lions aren't 100 percent.
Bill Belichick is too smart and too paranoid to let the Lions sneak an upset on him on Thanksgiving.
Patriots 24, Lions 7
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys (Turkey Day Part 2)
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This is a game in which statistics don't matter because the Dallas Cowboys became a completely different team a few weeks ago when Jason Garrett took over.
The Saints definitely have shaken off their Super Bowl hangover and have been playing much better this month.
The Cowboys defense actually works now, and the Cowboys offense seems to be building more dimensions—but the jury still is out on that one.
This is a potentially big upset in the making for the Cowboys, but the Saints aren't going to be caught sleeping like they might have been in September.
Saints 31, Cowboys 28
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets (Turkey Day Part 3)
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Another game that has upset written all over it because the Bengals are terrible and the Jets like to wait until the last minute of the game to actually win it for the last month or so.
The Jets offense is a well-oiled machine, especially in the fourth quarter, and the defense, anchored by Darrelle Revis, shuts down passing games without breaking a sweat.
Carson Palmer is throwing himself into a backup position for another team with his interceptions and the Bengals defense hasn't been very good at stopping much of anything.
Terrell Owens stirred the pot this week by calling out Revis, so that shows there's still a little life left in Owens. But I just have a hard time seeing how the Bengals can put together a complete game at this point.
I can see the Jets giving the game away, because they've almost done that a few times this year, but I just can't pick Cincinnati here.
Jets 24, Bengals 21 (Overtime)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
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This is the game of the week.
The Packers are playing very well and so are the Falcons. Both need this win to help stay atop their respective divisions, and both teams know there is a real good possibility they'll be seeing each other again in January.
As the NFL Network pointed out, we'll see how the Packers' offensive line does against John Abraham and we'll see how the Falcons' offensive line does against Clay Matthews.
The stat to look at here is the Packers' pass defense is ranked 11th in league, while the Falcons' pass defense is ranked 24th.
That being said, Matt Ryan has Roddy White and Aaron Rodgers doesn't. This game also is in Atlanta, so you've got home-field advantage to think about as well.
My gut says Green Bay—let's just hope it isn't indigestion.
Green Bay 30, Atlanta 24
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
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There is no more dangerous two-win team in the league than the Buffalo Bills.
But the Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most dangerous teams in the league and they're still really upset about losing to the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots over the last month.
The Steelers defense is vulnerable against the pass and Ryan Fitzpatrick puts up some crazy numbers, but the likelihood of the Bills defense shutting Ben Roethlisberger down is pretty remote.
Steelers steamroll over the Bills.
Steelers 28, Bills 17
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns
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Colt McCoy won't be seen here this weekend—his ankle is injured.
While the starting quarterback for the Browns hasn't been announced as of this writing, it seems pretty likely it won't be McCoy.
Jake Delhomme will be back out on the field, according to most reports coming out of Cleveland, and the depleted offense gets to take on the Carolina Panthers.
I'm a Browns fan and this game scares the crap out of me.
The Panthers are awful, have no quarterback and their defense can't stop anybody.
On the flip side, the Browns can't hold a lead, their offensive coordinator doesn't adjust to the game and the defense lost one of its best guys in Scott Fujita a few weeks ago.
My brain can't comprehend losing to Carolina, so I'm going to pick the Browns and start drinking early.
Cleveland 10, Carolina 3
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
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This should've been a titanic clash of AFC South powers for control of the division. Now it's a battle to see who can avoid getting stuck in last place.
The Titans, decimated by injuries and now in-fighting, have gone from a playoff lock to planning for next year.
The Texans have no defense and lose games in the last minute no matter how many points Matt Schaub and Arian Foster put on the board.
Who do you go with here?
The Titans are starting Rusty Smith with the emotionally-tortured Vince Young done for the year with his injured thumb and Kerry Collins still out with a leg injury.
This means the Texans defense has a chance.
Texans 35, Titans 24
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants
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This is a game of facts versus opinions.
Fact: Maurice Jones-Drew is unstoppable this year and David Garrard seems to be lights-out in the fourth quarter.
Opinion: I have a hard time seeing the Jaguars actually winning anything in the playoffs. The Jaguars make the most of every opportunity given to them and take advantage of other teams' mistakes. Playoff teams generally don't make many mistakes.
Fact: The Giants are a great team, but Eli Manning goes on tears where he turns the ball over.
Opinion: The Giants will go deeper into the playoffs than the Jaguars.
Giants 30, Jaguars 20
Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins
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Throw the stats out the window again, the Vikings have a new head coach.
As the Cowboys showed a few weeks ago, sometimes changing the head coach does wonders for a team. The merits of changing coaches because players are upset is a debate for another time.
The Redskins are inconsistent, and so is Donovan McNabb. Therefore, this game is a crapshoot.
Lightning does not strike twice and the Redskins win. Brett Favre just is not the quarterback he was a year ago and changing coaches will not change that fact.
Redskins 17, Vikings 10
Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders
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I'm getting a headache with these picks this week.
The Raiders have no set starting quarterback, despite what Tom Cable might be saying, and the Dolphins now are starting Tyler Thigpen, who will be the latest Dolphins quarterback to not get the ball to Brandon Marshall.
This isn't to absolve Brandon Marshall of any blame for the Dolphins' situation, because he hasn't exactly been Mr. Innocent.
But back to the Raiders—the Steelers exposed them last week, and now it's up to the Dolphins to take advantage of that. However, the Dolphins rush defense is ranked 20th in the league, meaning Darren McFadden has a good chance of having another good day.
The Dolphins' season is slipping away and the Dolphins know this. The Raiders can smell the playoffs and the Dolphins definitely are not in the same category as the Steelers.
Raiders 24, Dolphins 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks
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I have a new rule. Anytime an NFC West team plays a non-NFC West team, I pick against the NFC West team on general principle.
Chiefs 42, Seahawks 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens
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Along with the Jacksonville Jaguars, name me a better team than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that best describes NFL parity.
The Buccaneers were supposed to be terrible this year, but Josh Freeman is the definition of clutch in the fourth quarter, and LeGarrette Blount is making his presence felt.
I think that chip on his shoulder gives him a little extra oomph going through the line.
But the Baltimore Ravens are one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They play hard, they play dirty and they absolutely do not quit.
The Ravens...oh the heck with it, I smell a Tampa Bay victory that shocks the Ravens to their core.
Tampa Bay 27, Baltimore 20
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
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Michael Vick and the Eagles seem unstoppable right now and the Bears are tied for first place in the NFC North despite the fact their offensive line stubbornly refuses to come out of the locker room at game time.
Maybe Jay Cutler should try being a little nicer to his offensive line. I mean, did you hear what he said about Olin Kreutz in gym class yesterday? Susie is going to be so mad!
(Thank you, tip your waiter, I'll be here all night!)
The Bears defense is nothing to sneeze at though, ranked first in the league in points allowed. And their rush defense is rated second in the league, so LeSean McCoy is going to have a really tough day.
Michael Vick may have a harder time running on this defense as well, but the fact is he's hot, Andy Reid is a great coach and the Bears are going to have their hands full.
Gotta ride the hot horse and stick with Michael Vick.
Eagles 20, Bears 17
St. Louis Rams vs. Denver Broncos
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You may be wondering if my NFC West rule is in effect with Sam Bradford at quarterback versus the Denver Broncos.
Yes. Yes, it is.
Broncos 35, Rams 30
Update: With the ruling about "Spygate II" concerning the Broncos, I'm changing my pick to St. Louis. This is going to completely screw the Broncos up this week.
Rams 24 Broncos 17
San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
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The Chargers are a better team now than they were even two weeks ago.
The Colts just lost a heart-breaker to New England, and there's nothing more dangerous than Peyton Manning with a chip on his shoulder.
That being said, the Colts offense still is beat up, not that the Chargers have 100 percent of their starters out there, either.
This game will determine the rest of the season for both teams in many ways, and the game may come down to which team has the better coach.
Jim Caldwell is no Tony Dungy.
Chargers 28, Colts 24
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
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Did you hear that scream? That was the ESPN executives realizing they have no idea how they're going to get anyone to watch a game between two NFC West teams this year.
Do I go with the 0-0 tie prediction? I really want to. It's sexy. It's daring. Nobody would expect it. But that would be a cop-out and I won't do it.
Derek Anderson kills any team he plays for and the Cardinals could start a guy off the street at quarterback and have just as much success.
The 49ers find new ways to lose, they aren't very good and they have been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2010 season.
Frank Gore can still run though, and the Cardinals defense probably won't be able to stop him.
49ers 14, Cardinals 3
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