NFL Picks Week 12: First Look at Predictions for Every Game
As Week 12 rolls around, there has been serious drama that has recently unfolded in the NFL.
Vince Young hurt his thumb. Vince Young was benched by Jeff Fisher. Vince Young threw his shoulder pads into the stands after a 19-16 loss to Washington. Jeff Fisher benched Vince Young for the season.
On the heels of a 31-3 thrashing by the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings coach Brad Childress has been fired, replaced by defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. I selfishly hope Frazier is fired too; then I can say, "Down goes Frazier!"
New England edged out Indianapolis, and Michael Vick showed why he is a prime contender for MVP with his 27-17 victory over the New York Giants.
Cincinnati is just bad.
Here are my Week 12 picks.
Thanksgiving: New England at Detroit
1 of 15
Point spread: New England by 6.5
Is there any question about this game?
New England just came off a huge win against the Colts, despite their forgiving secondary. Tom Brady is obviously the key to this team—as if that wasn't already apparent for years.
It doesn't matter how much the Lions could score. The Patriots will score far more against a worse defense than theirs.
Prediction: New England 38, Detroit 21
Thanksgiving: New Orleans at Dallas
2 of 15
Point spread: New Orleans by 3.5
New Orleans has finally found its mojo after a concerning first seven weeks.
They beat Pittsburgh and then went on to demolish two teams they should demolish, Carolina and Seattle.
I didn't think firing Wade Phillips and installing Jason Garrett would have made a big difference for Dallas.
It has.
They beat the Giants two weeks ago and then destroyed Detroit.
I like the Cowboys a lot better now, and I actually think this might be closer than most people think, but New Orleans is the obvious choice here.
Prediction: New Orleans 30, Dallas 24
Minnesota at Washington
3 of 15
Point spread: Washington by 2.5
Despite Brad Childress' firing, and despite this team's disaster of a season, I see Minnesota finally winning here.
Washington, in my mind, is a mediocre football team. I think their 59-28 loss two weeks ago to Philadelphia is more indicative than their 19-16 win over troubled Tennessee.
Despite having one of the best, if not the best running back in the NFL, Minnesota continues to try to win the football game with Brett Favre.
However, in this case, it will actually work. Washington's defense is ranked fourth to last in passing yards allowed per game.
Prediction: Minnesota 21, Washington 18
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Carolina at Cleveland
4 of 15
Point spread: Cleveland by 11
Vegas got it right here. Cleveland could easily win by 11. I actually think it's going to be a blowout.
You look at Cleveland's record of 3-7 at first glance, and it doesn't appear they are a good football team.
But then you look at who they've lost to: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, the Jets and a solid team in Jacksonville last week.
They've beaten New England and New Orleans.
Despite what Bill Parcells might say, this team's record does not reflect how good it is.
Playing the worst team in the NFL right now, this could get ugly.
Prediction: Cleveland 24, Carolina 10
Tennessee at Houston
5 of 15
Point spread: Houston by 5.5
Regardless of what Vince Young does with his shoulder pads, he gives Tennessee the better chance to win a football game. He's much improved as a quarterback this year.
But Tennessee won't have Vince Young. They'll have rookie Rusty Smith under center. Smith went 3-of-9 with an interception taking over for Young last week.
I don't expect the Titans to feature Smith prominently, especially when they have Chris Johnson, but I do believe the Houston Texans are a better team right now.
Houston lost on a Hail Mary two weeks ago. Then they lost on a last second touchdown pass against the Jets last week. They could easily be 6-4, not 4-6.
If they're smart, they'll stack the box against Johnson and force Smith to beat them—which he won't.
Prediction: Houston 24, Tennessee 17
Jacksonville at New York Giants
6 of 15
Point spread: New York by 7
Jacksonville is a better team than a lot of people give them credit for. They've won their last three games against Dallas, Houston and Cleveland. Two of those teams are tough teams.
But I fully expect the Giants to get back in the win column this week.
They've got to be angry about their loss against Philadelphia, and I expect them to come out on fire in New York.
Their run defense is suspect, and that doesn't help against Maurice Jones-Drew, but I expect them to outscore Jacksonville.
Prediction: New York 27, Jacksonville 20
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
7 of 15
Point spread: Pittsburgh by 6.5
I know Buffalo is on a bit of a roll, but the fact is this team is not the type of offense that explodes against a defense like Pittsburgh's.
They scored 49 points last week, yes, but that was against Cincinnati, which sadly is a worse team than Buffalo this year.
Buffalo scored 14 against Detroit two weeks ago.
Pittsburgh, at 7-3, is still a Super Bowl contender, and they showed that with a 35-3 thrashing of Oakland last week.
I didn't expect Oakland to win that one anyway, but what Pittsburgh did to them showed they are a team on a mission.
A team on a mission against one of the NFL's worst defenses? That can't be good.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Buffalo 17
Green Bay at Atlanta
8 of 15
Point spread: Atlanta by 2.5
This is sure to be a great game. It should be the Game of the Week.
Both these teams have elite offenses, and it's going to be hard to stop either of them.
But as much as I like Atlanta this year, I have a feeling this might be the game where they get knocked off their pedestal a bit.
I believe Green Bay's defense, ultimately the pressure they get on Matt Ryan (tied for third in the league with 29 sacks), will be the final determinant of this game.
Both teams are coming off four straight wins, and they both are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but I see Green Bay shocking Atlanta here.
Prediction: Green Bay 24, Atlanta 20
Kansas City at Seattle
9 of 15
Point spread: Kansas City by 1
I don't feel Kansas City is an elite team, with a 6-4 record, especially because they lost to Oakland and (gasp) Denver.
But they are no doubt a good team that has been transformed from putridity, and they will have no problem destroying Seattle the way they did Arizona last week.
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Seattle 14
Miami at Oakland
10 of 15
Point spread: Oakland by 3
Miami has quickly made us realize they are not that good a football team, with their win against Green Bay in Week 6 far behind them.
They are 5-5, and Tyler Thigpen clearly isn't the answer. They don't seem to have faith in Chad Henne either. Ricky Williams is on his last legs.
Despite a 35-3 embarrassment against Pittsburgh last week, Oakland's pass defense should have no problem disposing of Miami's 30th-ranked offense at the "Black Hole."
Prediction: Oakland 20, Miami 14
St. Louis at Denver
11 of 15
Point spread: Denver by 4
I feel bad for St. Louis and Denver fans. They feel compelled to watch their teams.
St. Louis is 4-6. Denver is 3-7.
I feel St. Louis is slightly the better team, however, with two components of offense instead of just a passing game.
I'm a big believer in Sam Bradford, and I think he'll eke out a victory despite it being in Denver.
Prediction: St. Louis 24, Denver 21
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
12 of 15
Point spread: Baltimore by 7.5
Despite their 7-3 record, their losses to Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Atlanta have shown they are not an elite team, but still a very good one.
Against an elite team in Baltimore however, they will lose this game.
Prediction: Baltimore 27, Tampa Bay 21
Philadelphia at Chicago
13 of 15
Point spread: Philadelphia by 3.5
In my mind, Philadelphia is the best team in the NFL right now.
Against any team that isn't elite, they should win handily from here on out unless something drastic happens.
They have shown that they can also win against elite teams, beating Atlanta, Indianapolis and the Giants last week.
Chicago isn't an elite team and will fall despite playing in Chicago.
Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Chicago 16
San Diego at Indianapolis
14 of 15
Point spread: Indianapolis by 3
San Diego is on one of its trademark second half pushes right now, and I predict them to win the AFC West.
However, against the Colts in Indianapolis, I don't see them pulling this one out.
The Colts haven't lost this season yet at home, and they are surely determined after a three-point loss in New England.
I do like San Diego's pass defense a lot, but on Peyton Manning's home turf I see it being a high-scoring affair, with the Colts coming out on top.
I expect Manning to be making this gesture at the end of the game.
Prediction: Indianapolis 27, San Diego 24
Monday Night: San Francisco at Arizona
15 of 15
Point spread: San Francisco by 1
Both of these teams have been awful this year. Being a Niners fan, I know full well.
But Troy Smith has brought renewed hope to San Francisco.
Although I don't feel he can beat teams like Tampa Bay (as evidenced by the 21-0 thrashing last week), I do believe he can beat teams like Arizona.
Arizona has lost five straight games, including to Seattle twice.
Despite Arizona having home field advantage, I feel San Francisco is the better team right now, better being the key word. They both are two of the worst teams in the league.
This is one Monday night game you might want to miss. I, unfortunately, can't. I'm a Niners fan.
Prediction: San Francisco 21, Arizona 17
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")