BCS Rankings Week 13: What's the Top 25 Outlook After the Sixth BCS Standings?
BCS Rankings Week 13 are here, and once again there isn't much change at the top.
Oregon sits just ahead of Auburn in the standings, and the two teams are in full control of their own destinies just like most teams in college football.
At this point, each team has to have the mentality of "win or go home."
With just a couple of weeks left in the regular season, every game remaining for college football's powerhouses will have a huge impact on how the BCS picture looks come January.
And this weekend's slate of games is sure to provide us football fans with some unparalleled drama.
I'm particularly excited about some potential BCS busters, as Boise State takes on Nevada and Auburn takes on Alabama.
These matchups will be instrumental in determining who plays for the BCS National Championship.
But what about those other teams in the top 25?
Well, I'm here to dissect the rankings and determine how the rest of the season might play out
25. Mississippi State
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Last Week's Ranking: Mississippi State was ranked 21st in last week's rankings after a 20-point blowout at the hands of Alabama.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Ole Miss
How They Can Climb: The Bulldogs need a blowout here. Although the Rebels played LSU close last week, they're 4-7, so a close win doesn't do much for Mississippi State's resume. They've lost two games in a row after a six-game winning streak and need to finish up their regular season with an SEC win on the road.
How They Can Fall: Lose to Mississippi and fall to 7-5 on the season. Again, the Rebels haven't been impressive for most of the season, so the Bulldogs will certainly plummet down these rankings with a loss.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 23rd. I don't see Dan Mullen's crew losing a third straight game to end the season. Mississippi State will win this one, but it won't be enough for a big jump considering the opponent.
24. Iowa
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Last Week's Ranking: Iowa was ranked 20th entering Saturday's game against Ohio State, but the Hawkeyes fell four spots after a three-point loss to the Buckeyes at home.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Minnesota.
How They Can Climb: The Golden Gophers sit at 2-9 on the season, having just snapped a nine-game losing streak a couple of weeks ago. But the Hawkeyes aren't going to impress any of the voters with a 10-point victory in this one. The only thing that will help their case is a 20-plus point beatdown of Minnesota.
How They Can Fall: A close win probably keeps the Hawkeyes right where they are, but a loss is sure to look bad for Iowa.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 21st. Iowa should roll over Minnesota this weekend with a shellacking of the Golden Gophers. That should be enough to bump them up a couple of spots in the final rankings.
23. NC State
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Last Week's Ranking: NC State wasunranked entering Saturday's game against North Carolina, but the Wolfpack jumped to No. 23 following a nice victory over its in-state rival.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Maryland.
How They Can Climb: Maryland is coming off a a disappointing loss to Florida State, but the Terrapins sit at a very respectable 7-4 on the season. The Wolfpack has a nice opportunity to here to bolster its resume with a win over a quality ACCopponent. It doesn't even need to be a fancy victory, just one that sees NC State put up more points than Maryland.
How They Can Fall: A loss in this one, and NC State's stay in the Top 25 will beshortlived.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: Unranked. I'm going with the upset here, as the Terrapins pull off a big win in front of their home crowd and send the Wolfpack to its fourth loss of the season.
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22. Florida State
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Last Week's Ranking: Florida State just squeaked into the rankings last week at No. 25.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. Florida
How They Can Climb: The Gators may not be quite the team they've been in recent years, but a victory for the Seminoles after a monster in-state rival looks good to the voters.
How They Can Fall: A loss to Florida this week, and the Seminoles are all but guaranteed to end the season unranked.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS:19th.
21. Arizona
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Last Week's Ranking: Ah, the perks of college football. Arizona moved up one spot this week from No. 22 despite not playing.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 at Oregon
How They Can Climb: It's quite simple: pull the upset. The Ducks finally looked a little human against Cal two weeks ago, so the Wildcats should be a little more confident heading into this monster Pac-10 showdown.
How They Can Fall: Arizona's loss two straight games, so a third loss puts them out of the Top 25 for sure, even if it does come against the nation's No. 1 team. The Wildcats will also have to avoid the upset against Arizona State in their final regular season game.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: Unranked.
20. Utah
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Last Week's Ranking: Utah was ranked 23rd last week after two straight disappointing losses, but the Utes jumped up three spots after just barely edging San Diego State, 38-34.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. BYU
How They Can Climb: This one's pretty cut and dry: beat BYU. The Cougars have won four straight games after a disappointing 2-5 start, so they're better than that 6-5 record might indicate.
How They Can Fall: A loss, and they're out. The Utes can't afford to end the season by losing three of four games.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 18th.
19. Nevada
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Last Week's Ranking: Nevada entered last Saturday's game at No. 18 and destroyed New Mexico State by 46 points. Yet, they still fell one spot in the rankings.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 at Boise State
How They Can Climb: Beat the Broncos in a BCS buster. This would be a monumental win for the Wolfpack and would certainly shoot them up these rankings.
How They Can Fall: A close loss, and they fall just a couple of spots. A blowout loss, and they'll barely stop in the Top 25.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 20th.
18. South Carolina
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Last Week's Ranking: South Carolina got a taste of Nevada's medicine, dropping one spot even though the Gamecocks beat Troy, 69-24.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Clemson, Dec. 4 against Auburn (SEC Championship)
How They Can Climb: If the Gamecocks can avoid the trap game against Clemson, their season hopes will rest on that SEC Championship Game. Obviously a win over Auburn--who could still be undefeated at the time--would boost South Carolina up considerably.
How They Can Fall: Lose to Clemson, and South Carolina will be lucky to be ranked in the Top 25. But if the Gamecocks beat Clemson and lose to Auburn like I think they will, their ranking shouldn't fluctuate much.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 17th.
17. Texas A&M
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Last Week's Ranking: Apparently defense doesn't impress the voters. Texas A&M is only up two spots from No. 19 this week despite taking down then-No. 8 Nebraska.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 25 at Texas
How They Can Climb: Texas has completely fallen off the map this year. The Aggies won't benefit much from anything more than a blowout.
How They Can Fall: Lose, and that win over the Cornhuskers looks a lot less significant. Play the Longhorns too close, and the same is also true.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 15th.
16. Virginia Tech
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Last Week's Ranking: Virginia Tech stays at No. 16 this week even though the Hokiesgot a 14-point win over ACC rival Miami.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Virginia
How They Can Climb: Virginia isn't a very good football team. The Hokies didn't even move up after beating the Hurricanes, so they'll need a massacre here.
How They Can Fall: Lose or barely win. The Cavaliers are 4-7, so Virginia Tech has to destroy them or they're likely staying put.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 14th.
15. Nebraska
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Last Week's Ranking: Nebraska entered last Saturday's game against Texas A&M at No. 8, but plummeted all the way to No. 15 after putting up just six points in a loss to the Aggies.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 vs Colorado
How They Can Climb: I'm not sure the Cornhuskers jump much even with a win over the Buffaloes, but they have to get the victory nonetheless.
How They Can Fall: Colorado may be 5-6, but they've won two straight. Nebraska can't afford to be looking ahead to bowl season, or they'll lose this game and drop out of the Top 20.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 13th.
14. Missouri
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Last Week's Ranking: Missouri was ranked 15th in last week's standings, but moved up one spot after a 14-0 victory over Iowa State.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. Kansas
How They Can Climb: Kansas is awful. The Tigers need to destroy the Jayhawks.
How They Can Fall: Lose to a 3-8 team. It's as simple as that.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 12th.
13. Oklahoma
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Last Week's Ranking: It's really hard to move up the rankings these days. Oklahoma is up just one spot after a 29-point victory over Baylor.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Oklahoma State
How They Can Climb: By beating No. 9 Oklahoma State, the Sooners assert themselves as the top team in the Big 12 and crack the BCS.
How They Can Fall: A loss here, and any Big 12 Championship or BCS bowl dreams go down the toilet.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: No. 9.
12. Arkansas
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Last Week's Ranking: Arkansas was ranked 13th in last week's standings, but is up to No. 12 following a 38-31 victory over Mississippi State in double overtime.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. LSU
How They Can Climb: Arkansas's last chance at moving up comes this week against LSU in the Battle of the Boot. Win there, and they're probably a BCS team.
How They Can Fall: A loss to No. 5 LSU kills their BCS chances, but the Razorbacks are going to a nice bowl game no matter what.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 8th.
11. Alabama
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Last Week's Ranking: Alabama was ranked 11th last week.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 vs. Auburn
How They Can Climb: Have LSU lose to Arkansas, and upset No. 2 Auburn. That about covers it.
How They Can Fall: If the Crimson Tide lets Cam Newton run wild, they're not winning this game. And as a result, they're not going to a BCS game.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 16th.
10. Michigan State
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Last Week's Ranking: Michigan State was ranked 12th in last week's standings, but somehow jumped Alabama despite just squeaking by Purdue.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Penn State
How They Can Climb: Win here, and the Spartans could be headed to the BCS.
How They Can Fall: Lose, and everything Michigan State has worked for all season goes up in smoke.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 10th.
9. Oklahoma State
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Last Week's Ranking: Oklahoma State was No.10 in last week's rankings.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. Oklahoma
How They Can Climb: The Cowboys don't have to be worried about any style points this week. A big win over conference rival Oklahoma should be enough to move them up.
How They Can Fall: Lose to the Sooners, and Oklahoma State can kiss its BCS dreams goodbye.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 16th.
8. Ohio State
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Last Week's Ranking: Ohio State was ranked ninth in last week's standing, but jumped up after a 20-17 win over Iowa.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. Michigan
How They Can Climb: Stop Denard Robinson. Stop Michigan. Ohio State is looking at a BCS berth.
How They Can Fall: Let the Wolverines run wild and spoil their season. If the Buckeyes lose, they're not making it to a BCS game.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 7th.
7. Wisconsin
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Last Week's Ranking: Wisconsin was ranked 7th last week as well.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs Northwestern
How They Can Climb: Hope at least one of the teams ranked ahead of them with very losable games--like Boise State, LSU, Auburn or Oregon--actually loses.
How They Can Fall: Don't show up against Northwestern, and lose to the Wildcats.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 6th.
6. Stanford
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Last Week's Ranking: Stanford was ranked sixth in last week's standings and stayed put following a 48-14 victory over California.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 vs. Oregon State
How They Can Climb: First, beat the Beavers. Second, hope that at least one team ranked ahead of them loses this week.
How They Can Fall: Forget to show up, and fall to a mediocre Oregon State team.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 5th.
5. LSU
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Last Week's Ranking: LSU was ranked fifth in last week's BCS standings.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at Arkansas
How They Can Climb: Get the big win over the Razorbacks on the road, and hope that Nevada, Alabama and Arizona do some of their dirty work for them.
How They Can Fall: The Tigers are only going to fall if they lose to Arkansas.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 11th.
4. Boise State
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Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 at Nevada
How They Can Climb: A win over Nevada is huge this point, and likely helps the Broncos leapfrog TCU. But Boise State can climb even higher if Auburn and Oregon fall victim to upsets (which is certainly possible).
How They Can Fall: The Broncos will bolster their resume big-time with a win, but a loss could drop them out of the top 10 and the BCS altogether.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 3rd.
3. TCU
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Last Week's Ranking: TCU was ranked third in last week's standings as well.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 27 at New Mexico
How They Can Climb: Destroy New Mexico, which they will, and hope like hell that Auburn and Oregon lose this week.
How They Can Fall: If Boise State, Oregon and Auburn all win this week, the Horned Frogs will be No. 4 in the rankings next week.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 4th.
2. Auburn
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Last Week's Ranking: Auburn was No. 2 last week.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 vs. Alabama, Dec. 4 vs. South Carolina (SEC Championship)
How They Can Climb: The only way I see Auburn move to No. 1 is if Oregon loses, but you never know what the voters might do if the Tigers take down Alabama and South Carolina.
How They Can Fall: If Auburn loses to Alabama and beats South Carolina, they might still be OK. But if the Tigers lose the SEC Championship Game, they're probably not playing for a national championship.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: 2nd.
1. Oregon
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Last Week's Ranking: Oregon has sat atop the standings for quite some time now.
Upcoming Games of Note: Nov. 26 vs. Arizona, Dec. 4 vs. Oregon State
How They Can Climb: The Ducks obviously can't move up, but they might be able to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack with blowout wins the last two weeks.
How They Can Fall: Fall victim to the upset bug and lose to the Wildcats or the Beavers.
Where I Think They'll Finish in BCS: No. 1.
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