San Francisco 49ers: 7 Big Points To Defeating The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The San Francisco 49ers face another must win game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers are 3-6, two full games behind the division leading Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks play the New Orleans Saints this Sunday, so this could be a chance for the 49ers to gain ground.
First, however, the 49ers must take care of their own business. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into the Bay Area with a surprising 6-3 record.
The Bucs have scored 188 total points but have allowed 206. Are the Buccaneers doing it with mirrors?
Taking a closer look at their 6-3 record, we see that Tampa Bay has played a soft schedule and has not beaten a team with a winning record. In fact, the combined record of the teams they have defeated is a very weak 14-40, which includes two victories over the lowly Carolina Panthers, who are 1-8.
Nevertheless, at 3-6, the 49ers cannot afford to look past anyone. We also cannot forget that the lone Carolina win was against the 49ers, only three games ago.
This is a winnable game for San Francisco, but I'm sure Tampa Bay is thinking this is a very winnable game for them, also. I have isolated seven critical points where the 49ers must excel, in order to beat the Bucs.
7) Shane Andrus Must Be Solid In Replacing Joe Nedney
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Joe Nedney is one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL. However, he suffered a deep knee bruise in the 49ers' victory over the Rams last Sunday and is unable to play this week against Tampa Bay.
This season, Nedney has converted 11 of 13 field goal attempts and all 17 of his extra point tries. He is not the deepest kickoff man, but his reliability is a key to the 49ers' success.
Shane Andrus, who was in the 49ers' preseason training camp has been signed as a replacement kicker for Joe Nedney. To make roster space, the 49ers had already waived wide receiver Jason Hill.
Shane Andrus must make the kicks the 49ers ask him to. San Francisco tends to play close games because their offensive philosophy does not typically lead to a lot of scoring.
In addition, the Niner defense will hold the opposition to a low scoring output, in most cases. This being the case, it is imperative for the 49ers to convert on their field goal and extra point attempts when they get the chance.
Shane Andrus has a chance to set himself up for an NFL job, whether it be with San Francisco or somewhere else. If he can convert on his opportunities and handle the pressure, he will benefit the 49ers and himself in the long run.
6) The 49er Defense Must Not Give Up The Big Play
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The Tampa Bay offense will not be mistaken for a juggernaut. The Buccaneers average only 20.9 points per game, albeit slightly better than the 49ers' average of 17.8.
Tampa Bay has been inconsistent on the offensive side of the football. LeGarrette Blount leads the Bucs with a 59.8 yards per game average. Contrast that to Frank Gore's average of 86.4 yards per game and you can see the 49ers have an advantage in the ground game.
Quarterback Josh Freeman has been efficient for the Buccaneers, although not spectacular. He averages only 218.1 yards per game, through the air. Freeman has thrown for 12 touchdowns, with only five interceptions, however.
Wide receiver Mike Williams, with 40 catches, and tight end Kellen Winslow with 39 lead the Bucs. Williams' five touchdown receptions leads the team.
If the 49er defense can play a solid game and not give up the big play, I think they will be able to contain the Tampa Bay offense. If this is the case, expect a fairly low scoring game, decided by seven points or less.
The 49er front seven should be able to stop the run, it will be incumbent upon the secondary to not give up the big play. The 49er defensive backfield has been victimized for several big plays already this season. If the secondary plays good, consistent football, the Niners will be poised for a victory.
5) The 49ers Must Get Solid Play From The Offensive Line
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A major trouble spot this entire season for the 49ers has been the inconsistent play up front, along the offensive line. This group will be tested again as the Niners' most consistent lineman, left tackle Joe Staley, is out for 4-6 weeks with a broken leg, sustained last Sunday against the Rams.
In addition super utility lineman Adam Snyder injured a shoulder last week and may not be able to play. If Snyder does play, it also remains to be seen how effective he will be, playing with a banged up shoulder.
Veteran Barry Sims or Snyder will likely replace Joe Staley at the all important left tackle spot. if it's Sims, then Snyder, if he's able to play, could return to the right guard spot where he has been playing in front of Chilo Rachal.
If the 49ers decide to start Snyder at left tackle, or if he can't play, then Chilo Rachal will assume the right guard position. Rachal has been a major disappointment this season and must step up his effort, if he's called on to play.
Tony Wragge, who filled in for Staley last week, will most probably return to his backup center and guard role.
On top of the uncertainty at left tackle and right guard, remains the very inconsistent play of rookie Anthony Davis at right tackle. Davis has had problems in pass protection in virtually every game and was repeatedly beaten by Rams defensive end Chris Long last Sunday.
Davis has also been victimized with way too many holding and false start penalties. The 49ers will need Anthony Davis to play well this Sunday, or the offense will be in trouble.
With the uncertainty along the offensive line, it will be incumbent on quarterback Troy Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Johnson to be creative in ways to avoid the pass rush and find time to find his receivers. I expect a lot of roll outs, quick rhythm passes and play action from the Niner offense.
The 49ers catch a bit of a break this week, as Tampa Bay ranks last in the NFL with only eight sacks. Nevertheless, we can expect some blitzes and strong pressure as the Buccaneers will try to exploit the weakness along the offensive line of the 49ers.
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4) Frank Gore Needs To Have A Big Day
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With the emergence of Troy Smith as the quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, teams will have to respect the Niners' ability to throw the ball down the field successfully. Against the Rams, Smith threw for 356 yards, as he led the 49ers to a thrilling 23-20 overtime victory.
Defenses will no longer be able to put eight or nine men in the box to stop the 49er running game. This should open holes for Frank Gore, who has been outstanding all season. Gore has 778 yards rushing, which ranks fifth in the league.
As poorly as the 49er offensive line has been in pass protection, they have generally been adequate in run blocking. I cannot emphasize enough how the threat that the 49ers can hurt you through the air, will open up the running game for Frank Gore. I expect Frank Gore to have a big game this coming Sunday against Tampa Bay.
3) Pressure And Contain Josh Freeman
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Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman is a dominating physical presence at the quarterback position. He stand 6' 6" tall and is listed at 248 pounds.
Josh Freeman was a first round draft pick by Tampa Bay in 2009. He's in his second season at quarterback for the Buccaneers and has shown good signs of improvement.
The Tampa Bay offense tends to be more of a safety first offense and they do not ask Freeman to do too much. Nevertheless, he has been fairly effective and has also protected the football.
Josh Freeman averages 218.1 yards per game passing and has thrown twelve touchdowns, with only five interceptions. His completion percentage is a respectable 60.7%.
Freeman is also a threat to run, having gained 221 yards with a 6.5 yards per carry average.
The 49er defense must not allow Freeman to get comfortable. They will need to pressure him to throw before he wants to. The defense will also need sure tackling, as with his size, Freeman can break tackles and extend plays, which will be dangerous for the 49er secondary.
2) Win The Turnover Battle
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been extremely opportunistic in their six victories thus far in the 2010 season. Turnovers have been a big factor in their success. By the same token, turnovers have been a big reason why the 49ers stand 3-6.
Tampa Bay has a plus five turnover margin, which is particularly impressive considering the are starting a very young quarterback. The Buccaneers have 14 interceptions, 3 of which they have returned for touchdowns. Cornerback Aqib Talib is second in the NFL with five interceptions and has returned one for a touchdown.
Ball security will be critical for the San Francisco 49ers. In their first five losses, the 49ers had a -10 turnover margin. In the past four games, the 49ers have a +6 turnover margin and they have won three of those games. They actually should have won all four, save for a fourth quarter meltdown by David Carr and the 49er defense against Carolina.
Turnovers can make a big difference in this upcoming game. These two teams are fairly evenly matched and one or two plays can turn the tide.
1) Troy Smith Continues To Make Plays
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Troy Smith has started two games for the 49ers and has won them both. Alex Smith started seven games for the 49ers and won one. Enough said, Troy Smith has done the job and Alex Smith has not.
In guiding the 49ers to a win against Denver, Troy Smith has earned the opportunity to start. He displayed great poise and leadership in the 49er victory against the Rams. Smith also showed a strong, accurate arm and his mobility was essential to the 49ers' success.
Smith's mobility enabled him to extend plays and he found his receivers down the field. Smith threw for 356 yards, with one touchdown. He completed 17 out of his 28 attempts. In addition, Troy had two touchdown passes called back due to penalties.
I have also noticed that the receivers are working a lot harder for Troy Smith than they did for Alex. The main reason for this is because Alex Smith would quickly check the ball down to a safety valve outlet when he was under pressure. Troy Smith looks to extend a play and make a down field throw, which rewards a receiver who continues working to get open.
Opposing teams now have two games worth of film to review on Troy Smith. They will make adjustments in an attempt to confuse him. In two games, Smith has thrown no interceptions and protected the ball quite well.
For the 49ers to have any chance at making a run at the playoffs, Troy Smith will need to continue to play effectively. He has wrestled the starting job away from Alex Smith and if he can keep winning, he will definitely keep playing.
Yet Another Must Win Game For The 49ers
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Amazingly, with a 3-6 record, the San Francisco 49ers still have a shot at the playoffs. My belief is that a 9-7 record will win the NFC West and an 8-8 record could win, but will at least be in a tie for the division title. Tie breakers would come into play, in the event of a tie atop the division.
With four division games remaining, including one against Seattle, the 49ers have a flicker of life. However, with back to back road games against Arizona and Green Bay looming, and later in the season at San Diego, the 49ers must beat the Bucs.
If the 49ers excel with the seven points I noted, they will win this upcoming game. However, if the Niners do not handle these seven keys well, they will be staring at a loss and their season will slip further into oblivion.
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