NFL Week 11 Picks: Picking the Spreads for Each Week 11 Game
Just one more day before Week 11 kicks off with a matchup between Chicago and Miami.
For those of you who love a good wager, that also means it will be time to place bets on a great slate of games.
I'll be upfront and admit my betting has never ventured into the NFL. I've enjoyed some action on college basketball during March Madness, and had fun placing bets at the horse track. I actually won a little when I attended the Breeders Cup in 2004 at Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, Texas.
Let's have fun and get into the slate of games. The lines will be from sportsbook.com:
Thursday, Chicago @ Miami (-1), 8:20 PM EST
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Why Chicago Will Cover: The Bears defense is one of the league's best and held Brett Favre to 170 yards and a touchdown, and forced him into three interceptions. Tyler Thigpen, Miami's third-string quarterback, could be in for a long night.
Why Miami Will Cover: As Bill Parcells used to say, all Thigpen needs to do is "drive the bus." Get the ball to Brandon Marshall, Ronnie Brown or any other target, and let them just make plays.
My pick: Can't see this being close. Chicago by 10.
Sunday, Buffalo @ Cincinnati (-5.5), 1 PM EST
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Why Buffalo Will Cover: The Bills last four games have been decided by three points or less. You have to think Buffalo will want to build off their first win of the season last week against Detroit, and they could have a chance against a Bengals team that certainly hasn't lived up to expectations.
Why Cincinnati Will Cover: Carson Palmer looked like himself last week against Indianapolis, and this may be a chance for Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco to have big performances.
My pick: The Bengals cover, win by a touchdown.
Sunday, Detroit @ Dallas (-6.5), 1 PM EST
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Why Detroit Will Cover: If the Lions can get enough key big plays and capitalize off Dallas penalties, they'll make a game of this. Get Jon Kitna to hurry his passes, and that will disrupt the offensive rhythm too.
Why Dallas Will Cover: Amazing what happens when you open up your offense and get aggressive downfield. Last Sunday was what Cowboys fans had hoped for all year. Why stop now?
My pick: Dallas covers, wins by 14.
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Sunday, Washington @ Tennessee (-7), 1 PM EST
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Why Washington Will Cover: The Redskins don't have to face Michael Vick again this week, and should be just fine if Donovan McNabb can cut down on his interceptions. McNabb finished with 295 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles, but also had two picks.
Why Tennessee Will Cover: If you've got Chris Johnson in your backfield that certainly doesn't hurt, and if Randy Moss can become a valuable part of the offense as well, this team could be dangerous.
My pick: Titans by 10.
Sunday, Arizona @ Kansas City (-8), 1 PM EST
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Why Arizona Will Cover: Let Derek Anderson loose again this week, and who knows what will happen. The Cardinals had the chance to beat Minnesota two weeks ago and had 327 total yards against Seattle.
Why Kansas City Will Cover: The Chiefs got humiliated last week against Denver, and there's no way that will happen again with another bottom-tier team. If the Seahawks could gain 490 total yards against Arizona, Kansas City should be able to match it and then some.
My pick: Chiefs cover, win by 21.
Sunday, Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota, 1 PM EST
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Why Green Bay Will Cover: If Minnesota had trouble with Jay Cutler last week, what makes you think they'll do better against Aaron Rodgers, who's thrown for 2,300 yards and 15 touchdowns?
Why Minnesota Will Cover: This is a must-win situation for a team that knows it may be out of the playoff hunt if it doesn't win soon.
My pick: Green Bay, with the spread.
Sunday, Houston @ NY Jets (-7), 1 PM EST
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Why Houston Will Cover: The Texans are in a slump, and you have to figure they'll snap out of it eventually. This team has all the talent it needs on offense to play with anyone in the NFL.
Why the Jets Will Cover: Sure, they've won their last two games in overtime, but the Jets offense should be anxious for a huge day after the numbers Houston's offense put up last week against Jacksonville.
My pick: Jets by 14.
Sunday, Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-7), 1 PM EST
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Why Oakland Will Cover: The Raiders are averaging 361 total yards per game, and should be able to exploit a Steelers defense that seems to keep giving up yards and big plays.
Why Pittsburgh Will Cover: Despite their struggles, this still is a much better team with much better talent, and they'll be the toughest opponent yet on a weak Raiders schedule.
My pick: Pittsburgh by 14.
Sunday, Baltimore (-10) at Carolina, 1 PM EST
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Why Baltimore Will Cover: This is one of the NFL's elite teams, and they should cruise even if they have an off day.
Why Carolina Will Cover: Unless Ray Rice and Joe Flacco both wake up with the stomach flu, and Ray Lewis tears his Achilles during warmups, this just isn't happening. It's impossible.
My pick: Baltimore by 24.
Sunday, Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-1), 1 PM EST
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Why Cleveland Will Cover: The Browns are coming off a heartbreaking loss, but have shown they can play with anyone in the NFL. In their last three games, the Browns have averaged just over 305 total yards.
Why Jacksonville Will Cover: The Browns won't be an easy opponent, but the Jaguars should feel they can expose a Browns defense that allowed 456 total yards against the Jets.
My pick: Cleveland by one.
Sunday, Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (-3), 4:05 PM EST
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Why Tampa Bay Will Cover: You could make the argument the Bucs schedule has been somewhat tougher, and they have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season. Watch Tampa Bay's pass defense, which is eighth in the league, allowing 210 yards per game.
Why San Francisco Will Cover: Look for the 49ers to build off last week's overtime victory against St. Louis, and Troy Smith should continue to develop more confidence as well.
My pick: San Francisco by six.
Sunday, Seattle @ New Orleans (-12), 4:05 PM EST
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Why Seattle Will Cover: If they try to bring the house and blitz Drew Brees constantly, then that gives the Saints a chance to work on their stagnant run game. But this is just a mismatch, and the Seahawks don't have the horses to shut down New Orleans.
Why New Orleans Will Cover: Let Drew be Drew, and it should be a big day. Getting Reggie Bush back should be a huge plus too.
My pick: Saints by 14.
Sunday, Atlanta (-3) @ St. Louis, 4:05 PM EST
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Why Atlanta Will Cover: This could be a very nice, competitive game, but the combo of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will just be too much in the end for a young, promising Rams team.
Why St. Louis Will Cover: This team has only been blown out once this season and is right in the thick of a playoff chase in the NFC West. These are what as known as statement games.
My pick: Atlanta by three.
Sunday, Indianapolis @ New England (-3.5), 4:15 PM EST
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Why Indianapolis Will Cover: It's the NFL's best rivalry over the past decade, and even with a struggling ground game, you know Peyton Manning will make this close and especially attack a young New England defense.
Why New England Will Cover: The Patriots have the edge in talent, and you have to think Bill Belichick will find ways to bring pressure on Manning and slow down their offense.
My pick: New England by six.
Sunday, NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-3), 8:20 PM EST
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Why the Giants Will Cover: This is still a very balanced team, and it will have plenty of incentive to improve after last week's performance against Dallas. The fact that first place is up for grabs in the NFC East gives this game even more importance.
Why Philadelphia Will Cover: With Vick playing the way he is right now, the Eagles offense is going to be a nightmare for any opposing defense.
My pick: Giants by six.
Monday, Denver @ San Diego (-10), 8:30 PM EST
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Why Denver Will Cover: If they can bottle up what they did against Kansas City, then who knows, they could pull off another shocker.
Why San Diego Will Cover: The Chargers have more talent, and should be able to expose a Denver defense that is allowing 230 yards passing per game.
My pick: San Diego by 17.
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