NFL Week 11 Picks: Can Green Bay Packers Deliver Playoff KO To Brett Favre?
It's Week 11 in the NFL, and it's time to make some picks.
This weekend's action brings us plenty of big spreads, so the name of the game mainly involves picking out which are too big. But then again, we also need to determine which teams are good enough to cover.
So get out your wallet and make sure there are no coworkers looking over your shoulder. You're about to be hit with some mad football knowledge.
To note, the picks are ordered from the iffiest of the iffy to the true locks of the week.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
1 of 16
Line: Dallas -6.5
Why Detroit Can Win: It seems like I call for more Jahvid Best every week, and I'm going to do it again this week. More Jahvid Best, darn it! Other than that, the Lions need to disguise their coverages against Jon Kitna, who routinely got the ball out of his hand in a heartbeat against the Giants.
Why Dallas Can Win: How about the energy from the Cowboys on Sunday? Impressive. And now they'll be back at home. I also loved the play-calling, which finally trusted the play-makers to make plays. More of the same, please. Aside from that, Detroit is going to have to win on Shaun Hill's arm, and he's far from unstoppable.
Prediction: Dallas may be hot off a big win, but that spread is too big. Dallas will win 20-15.
Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots
2 of 16
Line: New England -3
Why Indianapolis Can Win: They might be the most resourceful team in football at this point. Peyton Manning had a sub-par game against Cincinnati, but the defense picked him up with five turnovers. That may not be necessary given the Pats' porous secondary. Expect Peyton to pick them apart.
Why New England Can Win: I don't think any of us expected such a savage beat-down of the Steelers. Brady looked unstoppable, but I wouldn't read too much into that. That was his first 300-yard passing game all season. Nevertheless, how do you doubt a team coming off a win like that?
Prediction: The Colts are banged up and the Pats are hot. The Patriots will win 31-24.
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
3 of 16
Line: Pittsburgh -7
Why Oakland Can Win: The Raiders could get two of their best players back for Pittsburgh in Zach Miller and Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Steelers present all sorts of match-up problems. The Raiders are at their best when the ball is in Darren McFadden's hands, but the Steelers are hard to run on. That puts a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell to get things done.
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: All of their weaknesses were on display against New England, namely their passing defense. Jason Campbell is not Tom Brady, however, so the Steelers should have the advantage. The Raiders' defense was on fire in their three-game winning streak, so Pittsburgh needs to hope that a couple weeks off can slow them down.
Prediction: The Raiders are my team, and I don't like them to win this game. However, the spread is too big. Pittsburgh wins 20-17.
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Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
4 of 16
Line: Miami -1.5
Why Chicago Can Win: The Bears have a pretty solid pass defense that gives up an average of 219.6 yards per game, and they're going up against the Dolphins third-string quarterback. Jay Cutler is coming off a decidedly "okay" effort against Minnesota, but there are just a small handful of teams with fewer interceptions than the Dolphins' total of six.
Why Miami Can Win: The Dolphins are coming off a season-high point total in their win over Tennessee, and got their first home win in the process. Thigpen didn't have to do much in limited action, and Chicago's killer rush defense is going to make it hard for the Dolphins to rely too much on Ronnie Brown ad Ricky Williams.
Prediction: Not a big believer in the Bears just because they've beaten Minnesota and Buffalo in back-to-back games. I like the Dolphins to win 21-17.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
5 of 16
Line: Cincinnati -5.5
Why Buffalo Can Win: They may as well build on their one-game winning streak, and doing so would give the Bengals a seven-game losing streak. The best idea might be to just let the Bengals beat themselves, which they've specialized in recently. I would say that they can get takeaways off of Carson Palmer, but Buffalo has only two picks all year.
Why Cincinnati Can Win: The Bills have the worst rush defense in the league, so maybe it's time to give Cedric Benson 25-30 touches. Aside from that, starting up a new streak with T.O. would be a good idea. He had caught a touchdown pass in five straight before being shut out against Indy.
Prediction: Both teams are dreadful. Thus, the spread is too big. Cincinnati will win 19-14.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
6 of 16
Line: Jacksonville -2
Why Cleveland Can Win: They may have lost last week, but this is a hot team. Colt McCoy is coming off his strongest game as a starter, and he could grow even more against Jacksonville's weak pass defense. Other than that, giving Peyton Hillis 20 carries or more seems to work just fine.
Why Jacksonville Can Win: They're coming off a pretty lucky win, and have capitalized on two rotten teams in their last two games (Dallas was indeed rotten at the time). Giving Maurice Jones-Drew 25-30 touches has worked well, as the Jags are 4-0 when he gets them.
Prediction: Give me the Browns. They'll win 24-21.
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans
7 of 16
Line: Tennessee -7
Why Washington Can Win: Getting torched by Mike Vick shouldn't automatically spell doom for anybody, but the Skins look like a team on the brink anyway. Take away Dante Hall's big day against the Bears, and we're probably looking at a team riding a four-game losing streak. The glimmer of hope: McNabb's second quarter against Philly was huge. They're going to need more of that magic.
Why Tennessee Can Win: Vince Young is no Vick, but he's definitely mobile. Copying the Eagles by running a lot of roll-outs and bootlegs would be a good idea, and it would open the field up for off-tackle runs by Chris Johnson.
Prediction: Big spread, but the Skins look awful these days. Titans will win 30-21.
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs
8 of 16
Line: Kansas City -8
Why Arizona Can Win: There is perhaps no team more depressing than Arizona these days. They've lost four in a row, and they're dreadful on both offense and defense. When it comes to playing Kansas City, you can't let them dictate the game with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. Matt Cassel is a very good quarterback, but the Chiefs are out of their element when he throws the ball too much.
Why Kansas City Can Win: Just show up, and don't let the Cardinals surprise you the way Denver did. Get back to establishing the run, as the Cardinals allow more than 130 yards rushing every game. Aside from that, enjoy being at home before hitting the road again.
Prediction: Tough spread in this one. The Chiefs will win 28-21.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
9 of 16
Line: New Orleans -11.5
Why Seattle Can Win: As long as they can protect him, Matt Hasselbeck has shown that he can make things happen. But most troubling for the Seahawks is the fact that New Orleans' defense is hot right now. They might have to open up the playbook.
Why New Orleans Can Win: You have to like the Saints with Reggie Bush back on the field. He opens up a whole new element in the Saints' passing game, as he can turn dump-offs into big plays. Other than that, the Saints win as long as Brees throws fewer than two picks.
Prediction: I hate spreads over 10 points, but I'm going to roll with this one. Saints win 28-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
10 of 16
Line: San Francisco -3
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: Troy Smith tends to throw up a lot of balls for grabs. Since the Bucs are tied for second in the NFL with 14 picks, this might end up working in their favor. Stopping Frank Gore is always the other big priority. Keep giving LeGarrete Blount 15-plus carries.
Why San Francisco Can Win: They're clearly rallying behind Troy Smith, but I am not impressed. He does seem to specialize in the improvisational, however, and does seem to be riding a good luck streak. But Frank Gore is the man on the team. Give him the ball, and then look for Vernon Davis on play action.
Prediction: The Buccaneers will win 24-18.
Houston Texans at New York Jets
11 of 16
Line: New York -7
Why Houston Can Win: Well, if it comes to it, they just need to intercept the ball this time. Aside from that, they just need to flat out stop somebody. Their secondary is hopeless, and the Jets know that. As such, the Texans would do well to rediscover their pass rush, as they have just 14 sacks all year. That means you, Mario Williams.
Why New York Can Win: I basically just said it. They need to throw the ball. It's worked for everyone else against the Texans, and it'll work for Sanchez. Aside from that, more carries for Shonn Greene is a good idea. LT looks like he's slowing down a bit.
Prediction: That's a pretty big spread, but the Texans are in a tailspin. Jets will win 24-14.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
12 of 16
Line: San Diego -10
Why Denver Can Win: Their performance against Kansas City reeks of an anomaly, but there was plenty in there to build on. For one, their ground game showed up. They're still the worst in the NFL, but they piled up 153 yards against the Chiefs. Well, if it worked once, why not go back to it.
Why San Diego Can Win: If Antonio Gates can get through this week and be ready to play on Monday night, then there's no reason they can't win. Stopping Kyle Orton is always the best way to beat the Broncos, especially if you can do it in the first quarter. The Chargers have the third-best pass defense in football.
Prediction: The Chargers have tended to win big at home this year. I'll take it the 10 points. Chargers will win 35-24.
Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams
13 of 16
Line: Atlanta -3
Why Atlanta Can Win: Why can't they win these days? Matt Ryan is on a roll, but the issue against St. Louis will be protecting him. The Rams are tied for first in sacks, and Chris Long in particular can make life hell for offensive lines. The Niners had, I think, a couple touchdowns called back because linemen were forced to hold on Long.
Why St. Louis Can Win: They've won four in a row at home since losing to Arizona on opening day. In those games, Sam Bradford has been at his best. Atlanta's pass defense is vulnerable, so another strong game from Bradford is definitely in the cards.
Prediction: I'm surprised the Rams got the credit they did with this spread. But Atlanta wins 24-20.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
14 of 16
Line: Green Bay -3
Why Green Bay Can Win: As we've already seen, the Packers are a match-up nightmare for the Vikings because of their defensive philosophy. They get after the quarterback, and then pick his passes off. They're first in sacks and tied for second in interceptions. If they can also disrupt Adrian Peterson, this could be another blowout.
Why Minnesota Can Win: Brett Favre's last game at home was a career day in passing, but most of it came in the final minutes. And it was against the Cardinals. The real 2010 Brett Favre, he of the league-leading 16 interceptions, must be careful. But then again, we say that every week.
Prediction: Two of Minnesota's home wins were by three points. Therefore, this spread is a gift. Green Bay will win 31-20.
Batlimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers
15 of 16
Line: Baltimore -10
Why Baltimore Can Win: The Ravens have a very good defense, and the Panthers have no offense to speak of. One plus one equals an obvious advantage. Offensively, things should be just as golden. This might be the best opportunity the Ravens are going to get to give Ray Rice his first true breakout game of the season.
Why Carolina Can Win: Now that Buffalo finally has a win, the Panthers are officially the worst team in the NFL. Therefore, Jimmy Cluasen has nothing to lose. He played relatively mistake-free football against Tampa Bay, but he might as well cut it loose and hope he can find some big plays.
Prediction: Another big spread, but the Panthers have given no indication they can even come close to a team like Baltimore. Ravens will win 28-13.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
16 of 16
Line: Philadelphia -3
Why New York Can Win: They looked flat and uninterested against Dallas, but that's the least of their worries. How do they stop Mike Vick? Well, in their favor is the fact that they have a much more explosive defense line than Washington, and they can collapse a pocket pretty quickly. That probably won't stop Vick, but it could limit him to fewer than six touchdowns anyway.
Why Philadelphia Can Win: Just turn him loose. Any other game plan at this point would be a decidedly stupid idea. And Andy Reid is not stupid.
Prediction: The Eagles will win 28-21.
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